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Oberliga - Bayern Nord Germany Bayern Nord - 19 2026

Großbardorf vs ASV Neumarkt

Großbardorf Home · Elo 1,475
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
ASV Neumarkt Away · Elo 1,462
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Großbardorf win
Großbardorf winPick
39.5%
Draw
28.0%
ASV Neumarkt win
32.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.3%
No49.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.2%
Under 2.543.8%

How much we know

Großbardorf history7 matches
ASV Neumarkt history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.5%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Großbardorf are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,475 against 1,462. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • ASV Neumarkt score far more

    0.71 goals a game over 7 matches for Großbardorf, against 1.67 over 55 for ASV Neumarkt.

  • Großbardorf concede fewer

    Großbardorf concede 1.57 a game, ASV Neumarkt 1.84.

  • ASV Neumarkt games more often go over 2.5 goals

    29% of Großbardorf matches, against 65% for ASV Neumarkt. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Großbardorf
ASV Neumarkt@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1475.3
ELO
1461.8
7
ELO · Matches
55
1475.3
Current Team ELO
1461.8
1461.8
Current Opponent ELO
1475.3
13.46
Current ELO Difference
-13.46
0.52
Expected score
0.48
7
History Matches
55
-0.16
Residual Mean
-0.04
45.73
Overperformance
46.85
-0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.26
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.40
0.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.80
Goals against per game
2.40
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
7
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
0.60
0.71
Goals for per game
1.00
1.57
Goals against per game
2.10
28.6%
Win rate
10.0%
0.71
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.88
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.34
1.57
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.76
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.51
0.87
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.81
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.81
Overall performance9 signals
90
7
Matches
55
1.00
PPG
1.31
28.6%
Win rate
38.2%
14.3%
Draw rate
16.4%
57.1%
Loss rate
45.5%
57.1%
Over 1.5 rate
83.6%
28.6%
Over 2.5 rate
65.5%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
47.3%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.29
Venue performance10 signals
100
4
Matches
30
1.00
PPG
1.03
25.0%
Win rate
26.7%
25.0%
Draw rate
23.3%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
4
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.71
Goals for per game
1.67
42.9%
Scoring rate
67.3%
14.3%
BTTS rate
47.3%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.67
25.0%
Scoring rate
70.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
0.50
Goals for per game
0.86
33.3%
Scoring rate
57.1%
16.7%
BTTS rate
57.1%
7
History Matches
55
0.71
Goals Mean
1.67
0.88
Goals Std
1.50
42.9%
Scored 1+ rate
67.3%
28.6%
Scored 2+ rate
50.9%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
32.7%
0.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.67
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.57
Goals against per game
1.84
57.1%
Conceding rate
74.5%
1.25
Goals against per game
2.30
50.0%
Conceding rate
83.3%
1.83
Goals against per game
2.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
7
History Matches
55
1.57
Conceded Mean
1.84
1.76
Conceded Std
1.53
42.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
54.5%
28.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
32.7%
1.25
Venue Conceded Mean
2.30
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
57.1%
Failed-to-score rate
32.7%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
75.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
57.1%
Failed-to-score rate
32.7%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
75.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
7
History Matches
55
0.87
Result entropy
0.93
1.81
Goal Difference Std
2.29
13.01
Stability score
6.95
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
7
Eligible Matches
55
2
Lead Matches
15
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.87
2
Trailing Matches
21
0.0%
Non-loss rate
19.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
7
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.43
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
0.29
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.04
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.89
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.96
Rest days
84.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
3
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
3
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.31
3
Long Rest History Matches
22
0.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.18
Competition & season17 signals
170
6
Matches
7
0.67
PPG
0.29
16.7%
Win rate
0.0%
16.7%
Draw rate
28.6%
66.7%
Loss rate
71.4%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
57.1%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.99
6
Current Competition Matches
7
0.67
Current Competition PPG
0.29
-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.14
2
Competition Season Count
4
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
—
Portability PPG Std
0.66
—
Portability PPG Range
1.64
—
Portability Score
43.22
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
7
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO13.46
PPG-0.31
GF-0.96
GA-0.26
PPG0.38
PPG-0.03
PPG0.40
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-48
Clean-sheet rate17.4%
Failed-to-score rate24.4%
History Matches-26
Clean-sheet rate33.3%
Failed-to-score rate45.0%
History Matches-48
Goals Mean-0.96
Goals Std-0.62
Scored 1+ rate-0.24
Scored 2+ rate-0.22
Scored 3+ rate-0.33
Venue Goals Mean-1.17
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.29
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.46
History Matches-48
Conceded Mean-0.26
Conceded Std0.23
Clean-sheet rate17.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-1.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.53
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.25
History Matches-48
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.48
Stability score6.05
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.01
Eligible Matches-48
Lead Matches-13
Lead Win Rate20.0%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches-19
Non-loss rate-0.19
Trailing Win Rate-0.14
Halftime Coverage Matches-48
First Half Goals For Mean-0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.37
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.38
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.19
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Rest days-0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest History Matches-26
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.31
Long Rest History Matches-19
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.85
Current Team ELO13.46
Current Opponent ELO-13.46
Current ELO Difference26.92
Expected score0.04
History Matches-48
Residual Mean-0.12
Overperformance-1.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Großbardorf

D
Viktoria Aschaffenburg1–1Großbardorf7 Nov · away
Pick: Viktoria Aschaffenburg 59% · missed
W
Ammerthal1–3Großbardorf31 Oct · away
Pick: Ammerthal 53% · missed
W
Großbardorf4–3Jahn Regensburg II24 Oct · home
Pick: Jahn Regensburg II 41% · missed
W
Großbardorf3–1DJK Bamberg16 Oct · home
Pick: Großbardorf 59% · hit
L
Weiden1–0Großbardorf29 Aug · away
Pick: Weiden 60% · hit

ASV Neumarkt

L
ASV Neumarkt1–4Ammerthal7 Nov · home
Pick: ASV Neumarkt 52% · missed
D
ASV Neumarkt0–0DJK Bamberg31 Oct · home
Pick: ASV Neumarkt 63% · missed
L
Cham5–1ASV Neumarkt23 Oct · away
Pick: Cham 71% · hit
L
ASV Neumarkt1–3Eintracht Bamberg17 Oct · home
Pick: Eintracht Bamberg 54% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Großbardorf and ASV Neumarkt meet in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Großbardorf win 39.5%, draw 28.0%, ASV Neumarkt win 32.5%. The pick is Großbardorf win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.2%. Both teams to score: 50.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.