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Oberliga - Bayern Nord Germany Bayern Nord - 19 2026

Eintracht Bamberg vs Fortuna Regensburg

Eintracht Bamberg Home · Elo 1,524
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Fortuna Regensburg Away · Elo 1,505
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Eintracht Bamberg win
Eintracht Bamberg winPick
54.9%
Draw
21.3%
Fortuna Regensburg win
23.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.0%
No41.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.6%
Under 2.535.4%

How much we know

Eintracht Bamberg history55 matches
Fortuna Regensburg history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.9%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Eintracht Bamberg are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,524 against 1,505. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Fortuna Regensburg score more

    1.45 goals a game over 55 matches for Eintracht Bamberg, against 2.21 over 53 for Fortuna Regensburg.

  • Eintracht Bamberg concede fewer

    Eintracht Bamberg concede 1.60 a game, Fortuna Regensburg 1.91.

  • Fortuna Regensburg games more often go over 2.5 goals

    51% of Eintracht Bamberg matches, against 75% for Fortuna Regensburg. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Eintracht Bamberg
Fortuna Regensburg@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1523.6
ELO
1504.8
55
ELO · Matches
53
1523.6
Current Team ELO
1504.8
1504.8
Current Opponent ELO
1523.6
18.82
Current ELO Difference
-18.82
0.53
Expected score
0.47
55
History Matches
53
0.02
Residual Mean
0.00
51.77
Overperformance
50.16
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
2.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.60
1.80
Goals for per game
2.10
1.10
Goals against per game
1.60
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.76
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.66
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.85
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.63
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
53
1.31
PPG
1.45
32.7%
Win rate
41.5%
32.7%
Draw rate
20.8%
34.5%
Loss rate
37.7%
83.6%
Over 1.5 rate
90.6%
50.9%
Over 2.5 rate
75.5%
38.2%
Over 3.5 rate
64.2%
2.08
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
27
1.29
PPG
0.78
32.1%
Win rate
18.5%
32.1%
Draw rate
22.2%
35.7%
Loss rate
59.3%
92.9%
Over 1.5 rate
85.2%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
63.0%
32.1%
Over 3.5 rate
44.4%
2.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
28
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.45
Goals for per game
2.21
74.5%
Scoring rate
83.0%
54.5%
BTTS rate
77.4%
1.54
Goals for per game
1.41
75.0%
Scoring rate
70.4%
53.6%
BTTS rate
63.0%
1.86
Goals for per game
1.86
71.4%
Scoring rate
57.1%
57.1%
BTTS rate
57.1%
55
History Matches
53
1.45
Goals Mean
2.21
1.25
Goals Std
1.70
74.5%
Scored 1+ rate
83.0%
41.8%
Scored 2+ rate
67.9%
20.0%
Scored 3+ rate
35.8%
1.54
Venue Goals Mean
1.41
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.60
Goals against per game
1.91
74.5%
Conceding rate
90.6%
1.54
Goals against per game
2.19
75.0%
Conceding rate
85.2%
0.86
Goals against per game
1.57
71.4%
Conceding rate
100.0%
55
History Matches
53
1.60
Conceded Mean
1.91
1.50
Conceded Std
1.32
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
58.5%
25.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.6%
1.54
Venue Conceded Mean
2.19
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
9.4%
25.5%
Failed-to-score rate
17.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.8%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
9.4%
25.5%
Failed-to-score rate
17.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.8%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
9.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
53
1.00
Result entropy
0.96
2.08
Goal Difference Std
2.08
0.03
Stability score
3.60
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
53
18
Lead Matches
17
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
82.4%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.84
18
Trailing Matches
23
27.8%
Non-loss rate
43.5%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
13.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.74
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
0.87
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.36
0.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.04
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.88
Rest days
84.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
30
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.18
22
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.41
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
7
Matches
7
2.00
PPG
1.29
57.1%
Win rate
42.9%
28.6%
Draw rate
0.0%
14.3%
Loss rate
57.1%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
7
Current Competition Matches
7
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.29
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.29
5
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.79
Portability PPG Std
0.27
2.00
Portability PPG Range
0.63
38.66
Portability Score
64.64
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO18.82
PPG-0.14
GF-0.75
GA-0.31
PPG0.71
PPG0.51
PPG-0.20
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate16.0%
Failed-to-score rate8.5%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate10.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.75
Goals Std-0.45
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.26
Scored 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Goals Mean0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.16
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.31
Conceded Std0.18
Clean-sheet rate16.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.18
Conceded 3+ rate2.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.65
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.17
History Matches2
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.00
Stability score-3.57
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.22
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.16
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.16
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.49
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.71
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.71
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.52
Portability PPG Range1.37
Portability Score-25.99
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.15
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.59
Current Team ELO18.82
Current Opponent ELO-18.82
Current ELO Difference37.63
Expected score0.05
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.61
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Eintracht Bamberg

D
Weiden3–3Eintracht Bamberg7 Nov · away
Pick: Eintracht Bamberg 51% · missed
L
Bayern Hof4–2Eintracht Bamberg31 Oct · away
Pick: Eintracht Bamberg 46% · missed
W
ASV Neumarkt1–3Eintracht Bamberg17 Oct · away
Pick: Eintracht Bamberg 54% · hit
W
Nordlingen0–1Eintracht Bamberg29 Aug · away
Pick: Eintracht Bamberg 55% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Fortuna Regensburg

W
Fortuna Regensburg1–0Neudrossenfeld7 Nov · home
Pick: Fortuna Regensburg 50% · hit
L
Nordlingen2–1Fortuna Regensburg24 Oct · away
Pick: Fortuna Regensburg 45% · missed
D
Fortuna Regensburg2–2Würzburger FV17 Oct · home
Pick: Würzburger FV 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Eintracht Bamberg and Fortuna Regensburg meet in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Eintracht Bamberg win 54.9%, draw 21.3%, Fortuna Regensburg win 23.8%. The pick is Eintracht Bamberg win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.6%. Both teams to score: 59.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.