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Oberliga - Bayern Nord Germany Bayern Nord - 19 2026

Cham vs Weiden

Cham Home · Elo 1,588
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Weiden Away · Elo 1,504
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Cham win
Cham winPick
67.1%
Draw
16.6%
Weiden win
16.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.1%
No46.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.2%
Under 2.537.8%

How much we know

Cham history52 matches
Weiden history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (67.1%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.

Why Cham are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Cham are rated 84 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,588 against 1,504. On rating alone Cham would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.81 goals a game over 52 matches for Cham, against 1.64 over 53 for Weiden.

  • Cham concede fewer

    Cham concede 1.02 a game, Weiden 1.53.

  • Weiden games more often go over 2.5 goals

    46% of Cham matches, against 62% for Weiden. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cham
Weiden@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1588.1
ELO
1504.0
52
ELO · Matches
53
1588.1
Current Team ELO
1504.0
1504.0
Current Opponent ELO
1588.1
84.07
Current ELO Difference
-84.07
0.62
Expected score
0.38
52
History Matches
53
0.09
Residual Mean
0.01
56.42
Overperformance
50.37
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.19
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.00
2.20
Goals for per game
2.20
0.60
Goals against per game
3.00
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
0.90
1.60
Goals for per game
2.00
0.80
Goals against per game
2.50
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.34
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.50
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.96
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.83
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.58
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
53
1.90
PPG
1.38
55.8%
Win rate
35.8%
23.1%
Draw rate
30.2%
21.2%
Loss rate
34.0%
73.1%
Over 1.5 rate
77.4%
46.2%
Over 2.5 rate
62.3%
30.8%
Over 3.5 rate
41.5%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.31
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
26
2.07
PPG
1.50
60.7%
Win rate
42.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
23.1%
14.3%
Loss rate
34.6%
82.1%
Over 1.5 rate
88.5%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
76.9%
39.3%
Over 3.5 rate
46.2%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.32
28
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.81
Goals for per game
1.64
80.8%
Scoring rate
73.6%
50.0%
BTTS rate
52.8%
2.14
Goals for per game
1.81
85.7%
Scoring rate
80.8%
53.6%
BTTS rate
65.4%
2.14
Goals for per game
1.71
85.7%
Scoring rate
85.7%
28.6%
BTTS rate
85.7%
52
History Matches
53
1.81
Goals Mean
1.64
1.48
Goals Std
1.53
80.8%
Scored 1+ rate
73.6%
51.9%
Scored 2+ rate
45.3%
25.0%
Scored 3+ rate
24.5%
2.14
Venue Goals Mean
1.81
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.02
Goals against per game
1.53
65.4%
Conceding rate
73.6%
1.04
Goals against per game
1.62
60.7%
Conceding rate
84.6%
0.43
Goals against per game
2.86
42.9%
Conceding rate
100.0%
52
History Matches
53
1.02
Conceded Mean
1.53
1.01
Conceded Std
1.49
26.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.7%
5.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.6%
1.04
Venue Conceded Mean
1.62
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
26.4%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
26.4%
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
19.2%
57.1%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
26.4%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
26.4%
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
19.2%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
26.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
53
0.90
Result entropy
1.00
1.70
Goal Difference Std
2.31
9.65
Stability score
0.23
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
53
19
Lead Matches
16
78.9%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.81
8
Trailing Matches
18
50.0%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.90
First Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.88
Rest days
83.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
31
Normal Rest History Matches
32
2.03
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.25
19
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.74
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.65
Competition & season17 signals
170
7
Matches
7
2.57
PPG
0.71
85.7%
Win rate
14.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
28.6%
14.3%
Loss rate
57.1%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
85.7%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
71.4%
1.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.10
7
Current Competition Matches
7
2.57
Current Competition PPG
0.71
1.71
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.14
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.40
0.73
Portability PPG Range
0.85
62.39
Portability Score
55.81
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO84.07
PPG0.53
GF0.17
GA-0.51
PPG1.86
PPG0.57
PPG1.40
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate8.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate23.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.17
Goals Std-0.05
Scored 1+ rate7.2%
Scored 2+ rate6.6%
Scored 3+ rate0.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.34
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.01
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.51
Conceded Std-0.48
Clean-sheet rate8.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.11
Conceded 3+ rate-0.17
Venue Conceded Mean-0.58
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.09
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.61
Stability score9.42
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.75
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate3.9%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-10
Non-loss rate27.8%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.86
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.86
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.09
Portability PPG Range-0.12
Portability Score6.58
Rest days0.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.78
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.09
Current Team ELO84.07
Current Opponent ELO-84.07
Current ELO Difference168.1
Expected score0.24
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance6.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Cham

W
Bayern Hof0–5Cham7 Nov · away
Pick: Cham 50% · hit
L
Kornburg3–0Cham30 Oct · away
Pick: Cham 42% · missed
W
Cham5–1ASV Neumarkt23 Oct · home
Pick: Cham 71% · hit
W
Ammerthal0–2Cham18 Oct · away
Pick: Cham 77% · hit
W
Würzburger FV2–3Cham29 Aug · away
Pick: Cham 42% · hit

Weiden

D
Weiden3–3Eintracht Bamberg7 Nov · home
Pick: Eintracht Bamberg 51% · missed
D
Weiden2–2Neudrossenfeld30 Oct · home
Pick: Weiden 42% · missed
W
Weiden4–3Ingolstadt II24 Oct · home
Pick: Ingolstadt II 42% · missed
D
Weiden1–1Nordlingen17 Oct · home
Pick: Weiden 43% · missed
W
Weiden1–0Großbardorf29 Aug · home
Pick: Weiden 60% · hit

About this match

Cham and Weiden meet in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Cham win 67.1%, draw 16.6%, Weiden win 16.3%. The pick is Cham win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.2%. Both teams to score: 53.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.