Nordlingen vs Jahn Regensburg II
Match result probability Model pick: Jahn Regensburg II win
Nordlingen win
38.3%
Draw
22.0%
Jahn Regensburg II winPick
39.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes64.4%
No35.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.568.6%
Under 2.531.4%
How much we know
Nordlingen history51 matches
Jahn Regensburg II history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Jahn Regensburg II
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 12:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.6%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.
Why Jahn Regensburg II are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,481 against 1,492. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Jahn Regensburg II score more
1.55 goals a game over 51 matches for Nordlingen, against 1.73 over 52 for Jahn Regensburg II.
-
Defences are close
Nordlingen concede 1.90 a game, Jahn Regensburg II 1.75.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
67% of Nordlingen matches, against 73% for Jahn Regensburg II. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Jahn Regensburg II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1481.3
ELO
1492.4
51
ELO · Matches
52
1481.3
Current Team ELO
1492.4
1492.4
Current Opponent ELO
1481.3
-11.19
Current ELO Difference
11.19
0.48
Expected score
0.52
51
History Matches
52
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.01
48.62
Overperformance
48.94
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.80
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.90
2.70
Goals against per game
2.10
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.45
2.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
2.45
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.37
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
3.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.44
Overall performance9 signals 90
51
Matches
52
1.24
PPG
1.37
31.4%
Win rate
40.4%
29.4%
Draw rate
15.4%
39.2%
Loss rate
44.2%
82.4%
Over 1.5 rate
88.5%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
73.1%
51.0%
Over 3.5 rate
44.2%
2.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.15
Venue performance10 signals 100
25
Matches
28
1.28
PPG
0.96
32.0%
Win rate
25.0%
32.0%
Draw rate
21.4%
36.0%
Loss rate
53.6%
72.0%
Over 1.5 rate
89.3%
56.0%
Over 2.5 rate
78.6%
36.0%
Over 3.5 rate
57.1%
2.21
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.20
25
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.55
Goals for per game
1.73
78.4%
Scoring rate
80.8%
68.6%
BTTS rate
69.2%
1.28
Goals for per game
1.64
68.0%
Scoring rate
82.1%
56.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
1.43
Goals for per game
1.71
57.1%
Scoring rate
71.4%
57.1%
BTTS rate
57.1%
51
History Matches
52
1.55
Goals Mean
1.73
1.24
Goals Std
1.43
78.4%
Scored 1+ rate
80.8%
43.1%
Scored 2+ rate
46.2%
25.5%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
1.28
Venue Goals Mean
1.64
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.90
Goals against per game
1.75
82.4%
Conceding rate
86.5%
1.68
Goals against per game
2.11
76.0%
Conceding rate
89.3%
1.71
Goals against per game
2.14
85.7%
Conceding rate
85.7%
51
History Matches
52
1.90
Conceded Mean
1.75
1.66
Conceded Std
1.28
54.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.1%
27.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.8%
1.68
Venue Conceded Mean
2.11
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
13.5%
21.6%
Failed-to-score rate
19.2%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
10.7%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
13.5%
21.6%
Failed-to-score rate
19.2%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
10.7%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
13.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
51
History Matches
52
0.99
Result entropy
0.92
2.19
Goal Difference Std
2.15
0.72
Stability score
7.61
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
50
Eligible Matches
52
14
Lead Matches
17
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
70.6%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.76
17
Trailing Matches
17
35.3%
Non-loss rate
17.6%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
11.8%
Goal timing5 signals 50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.80
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
1.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.98
Rest days
84.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
29
Normal Rest History Matches
29
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.07
20
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.82
Competition & season17 signals 170
7
Matches
7
1.29
PPG
1.14
28.6%
Win rate
28.6%
42.9%
Draw rate
28.6%
28.6%
Loss rate
42.9%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.77
7
Current Competition Matches
7
1.29
Current Competition PPG
1.14
-0.29
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.43
4
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.32
Portability PPG Std
0.28
0.76
Portability PPG Range
0.68
60.95
Portability Score
63.94
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
51
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-11.19
PPG-0.13
GF-0.18
GA0.15
PPG0.14
PPG0.32
PPG0.40
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate4.2%
Failed-to-score rate2.3%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate13.3%
Failed-to-score rate14.1%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.18
Goals Std-0.19
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate0.5%
Venue Goals Mean-0.36
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.12
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.15
Conceded Std0.38
Clean-sheet rate4.2%
Conceded 2+ rate6.8%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.43
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.08
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std0.03
Stability score-6.90
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.70
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate8.0%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate17.6%
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.14
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.14
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.04
Portability PPG Range0.08
Portability Score-2.99
Rest days-0.85
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.31
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.82
Current Team ELO-11.19
Current Opponent ELO11.19
Current ELO Difference-22.38
Expected score-0.03
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.33
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.07
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Nordlingen
W
Gebenbach2–3Nordlingen7 Nov · away
Pick: Gebenbach 66% · missed L
Stadeln4–1Nordlingen31 Oct · away
Pick: Stadeln 48% · hit W
Nordlingen2–1Fortuna Regensburg24 Oct · home
Pick: Fortuna Regensburg 45% · missed D
Weiden1–1Nordlingen17 Oct · away
Pick: Weiden 43% · missed L
Nordlingen0–1Eintracht Bamberg29 Aug · home
Pick: Eintracht Bamberg 55% · hit Jahn Regensburg II
D
Jahn Regensburg II1–1Würzburger FV7 Nov · home
Pick: Würzburger FV 47% · missed W
Jahn Regensburg II5–0Viktoria Aschaffenburg31 Oct · home
Pick: Viktoria Aschaffenburg 39% · missed L
Großbardorf4–3Jahn Regensburg II24 Oct · away
Pick: Jahn Regensburg II 41% · missed W
Gebenbach1–6Jahn Regensburg II17 Oct · away
Pick: Gebenbach 64% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Nordlingen and Jahn Regensburg II meet in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Nordlingen win 38.3%, draw 22.0%, Jahn Regensburg II win 39.6%. The pick is Jahn Regensburg II win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.6%. Both teams to score: 64.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.