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Oberliga - Bayern Nord Germany Bayern Nord - 19 2026

Ingolstadt II vs Gebenbach

Ingolstadt II Home · Elo 1,513
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Gebenbach Away · Elo 1,584
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Gebenbach win
Ingolstadt II win
30.4%
Draw
25.2%
Gebenbach winPick
44.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes66.7%
No33.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.572.9%
Under 2.527.1%

How much we know

Ingolstadt II history57 matches
Gebenbach history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.5%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Gebenbach are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Gebenbach are rated 72 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,584 against 1,513. On rating alone Gebenbach would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Ingolstadt II score more

    2.11 goals a game over 57 matches for Ingolstadt II, against 1.63 over 56 for Gebenbach.

  • Defences are close

    Ingolstadt II concede 1.63 a game, Gebenbach 1.64.

  • Ingolstadt II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    79% of Ingolstadt II matches, against 63% for Gebenbach. The model puts this match at 73% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ingolstadt II
Gebenbach@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1512.9
ELO
1584.5
57
ELO · Matches
56
1512.9
Current Team ELO
1584.5
1584.5
Current Opponent ELO
1512.9
-71.61
Current ELO Difference
71.61
0.40
Expected score
0.60
57
History Matches
56
0.00
Residual Mean
0.07
50.35
Overperformance
55.13
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.31
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.40
2.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.80
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
2.70
1.80
Goals for per game
2.20
2.00
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
90.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.41
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.30
1.89
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.02
Overall performance9 signals
90
57
Matches
56
1.56
PPG
1.59
45.6%
Win rate
48.2%
19.3%
Draw rate
14.3%
35.1%
Loss rate
37.5%
91.2%
Over 1.5 rate
76.8%
78.9%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
52.6%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
2.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.42
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
30
1.85
PPG
1.60
55.6%
Win rate
50.0%
18.5%
Draw rate
10.0%
25.9%
Loss rate
40.0%
92.6%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
88.9%
Over 2.5 rate
56.7%
63.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
27
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.11
Goals for per game
1.63
84.2%
Scoring rate
83.9%
61.4%
BTTS rate
57.1%
2.48
Goals for per game
1.50
92.6%
Scoring rate
83.3%
70.4%
BTTS rate
56.7%
2.14
Goals for per game
2.00
85.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
57.1%
BTTS rate
57.1%
57
History Matches
56
2.11
Goals Mean
1.63
1.60
Goals Std
1.23
84.2%
Scored 1+ rate
83.9%
59.6%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
38.6%
Scored 3+ rate
19.6%
2.48
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.63
Goals against per game
1.64
73.7%
Conceding rate
69.6%
1.63
Goals against per game
1.77
77.8%
Conceding rate
70.0%
2.29
Goals against per game
0.71
71.4%
Conceding rate
57.1%
57
History Matches
56
1.63
Conceded Mean
1.64
1.37
Conceded Std
1.85
49.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.3%
26.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.6%
1.63
Venue Conceded Mean
1.77
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
16.1%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
7.4%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
16.1%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.0%
7.4%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
57
History Matches
56
0.95
Result entropy
0.91
2.36
Goal Difference Std
2.42
5.06
Stability score
9.20
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
53
21
Lead Matches
19
81.0%
Lead Win Rate
68.4%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.75
15
Trailing Matches
12
33.3%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.91
First Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
1.27
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.93
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.96
Rest days
83.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
4
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
28
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.80
28
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.57
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.57
Competition & season17 signals
170
7
Matches
7
1.14
PPG
2.57
28.6%
Win rate
85.7%
28.6%
Draw rate
0.0%
42.9%
Loss rate
14.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
85.7%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
57.1%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
2.23
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.03
7
Current Competition Matches
7
1.14
Current Competition PPG
2.57
-0.14
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.29
5
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.37
Portability PPG Std
0.71
1.11
Portability PPG Range
1.82
57.29
Portability Score
41.37
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
57
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-71.61
PPG-0.03
GF0.48
GA-0.01
PPG-1.43
PPG0.25
PPG-1.00
PPG-1.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate0.00
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.48
Goals Std0.36
Scored 1+ rate0.3%
Scored 2+ rate9.6%
Scored 3+ rate19.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.98
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.45
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.01
Conceded Std-0.47
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate9.8%
Conceded 3+ rate6.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.67
History Matches1
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.06
Stability score-4.14
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.66
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.87
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate12.5%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate16.7%
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.43
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.43
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.34
Portability PPG Range-0.71
Portability Score15.91
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.30
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.00
Current Team ELO-71.61
Current Opponent ELO71.61
Current ELO Difference-143.2
Expected score-0.20
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.78
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.47

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ingolstadt II

W
Stadeln2–3Ingolstadt II7 Nov · away
Pick: Stadeln 46% · missed
L
Weiden4–3Ingolstadt II24 Oct · away
Pick: Ingolstadt II 42% · missed
L
Bayern Hof3–1Ingolstadt II17 Oct · away
Pick: Bayern Hof 44% · hit
L
Ingolstadt II0–1Neudrossenfeld29 Aug · home
Pick: Ingolstadt II 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Gebenbach

L
Gebenbach2–3Nordlingen7 Nov · home
Pick: Gebenbach 66% · missed
D
Gebenbach3–3Würzburger FV31 Oct · home
Pick: Gebenbach 45% · missed
D
Viktoria Aschaffenburg0–0Gebenbach23 Oct · away
Pick: Gebenbach 52% · missed
L
Gebenbach1–6Jahn Regensburg II17 Oct · home
Pick: Gebenbach 64% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Ingolstadt II and Gebenbach meet in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Ingolstadt II win 30.4%, draw 25.2%, Gebenbach win 44.5%. The pick is Gebenbach win. Over 2.5 goals: 72.9%. Both teams to score: 66.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.