Cappellen vs Nijlen
Match result probability Model pick: Cappellen win
Cappellen winPick
55.6%
Draw
14.7%
Nijlen win
29.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes64.1%
No35.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.573.8%
Under 2.526.2%
How much we know
Cappellen history43 matches
Nijlen history33 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Cappellen
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:15 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 19:15 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.6%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.
Why Cappellen are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Nijlen are rated 28 Elo points higher
Elo 1,444 against 1,415. On rating alone Nijlen would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.42 goals a game over 43 matches for Cappellen, against 1.58 over 33 for Nijlen.
-
Defences are close
Cappellen concede 2.56 a game, Nijlen 2.42.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
81% of Cappellen matches, against 76% for Nijlen. The model puts this match at 74% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 2 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Nijlen@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1415.5
ELO
1443.6
43
ELO · Matches
33
1415.5
Current Team ELO
1443.6
1443.6
Current Opponent ELO
1415.5
-28.15
Current ELO Difference
28.15
0.46
Expected score
0.54
43
History Matches
33
-0.10
Residual Mean
-0.08
43.34
Overperformance
44.82
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.21
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.80
2.80
Goals against per game
4.20
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
0.70
1.50
Goals for per game
1.70
2.60
Goals against per game
3.30
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
0.92
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.42
2.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.30
1.74
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.55
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.15
Overall performance9 signals 90
43
Matches
33
0.93
PPG
1.12
27.9%
Win rate
27.3%
9.3%
Draw rate
30.3%
62.8%
Loss rate
42.4%
93.0%
Over 1.5 rate
93.9%
81.4%
Over 2.5 rate
75.8%
51.2%
Over 3.5 rate
57.6%
2.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.66
Venue performance10 signals 100
21
Matches
16
1.05
PPG
1.00
33.3%
Win rate
25.0%
4.8%
Draw rate
25.0%
61.9%
Loss rate
50.0%
95.2%
Over 1.5 rate
93.8%
81.0%
Over 2.5 rate
81.3%
38.1%
Over 3.5 rate
56.3%
2.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.25
21
History Matches
16
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.42
Goals for per game
1.58
69.8%
Scoring rate
81.8%
58.1%
BTTS rate
69.7%
1.29
Goals for per game
1.56
71.4%
Scoring rate
75.0%
52.4%
BTTS rate
68.8%
43
History Matches
33
1.42
Goals Mean
1.58
1.37
Goals Std
1.13
69.8%
Scored 1+ rate
81.8%
46.5%
Scored 2+ rate
51.5%
14.0%
Scored 3+ rate
18.2%
1.29
Venue Goals Mean
1.56
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
2.56
Goals against per game
2.42
88.4%
Conceding rate
84.8%
2.38
Goals against per game
2.50
81.0%
Conceding rate
87.5%
43
History Matches
33
2.56
Conceded Mean
2.42
1.74
Conceded Std
2.16
67.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
63.6%
48.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
36.4%
2.38
Venue Conceded Mean
2.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
11.6%
Clean-sheet rate
15.2%
30.2%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
19.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
11.6%
Clean-sheet rate
15.2%
30.2%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
19.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
11.6%
Clean-sheet rate
15.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
43
History Matches
33
0.79
Result entropy
0.98
2.54
Goal Difference Std
2.66
20.87
Stability score
1.70
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
33
Eligible Matches
21
6
Lead Matches
6
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.67
15
Trailing Matches
10
13.3%
Non-loss rate
10.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
33
Halftime Coverage Matches
21
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
1.18
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.19
0.94
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
1.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.52
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
104.2
Rest days
139.2
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
24
Normal Rest History Matches
16
1.08
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.25
18
Long Rest History Matches
16
0.78
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.88
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.16
Portability PPG Std
—
0.32
Portability PPG Range
—
75.82
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
43
Clean History Matches
33
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-28.15
PPG-0.19
GF-0.16
GA0.13
PPG0.05
PPG0.60
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate12.1%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate6.5%
Failed-to-score rate3.6%
History Matches10
Goals Mean-0.16
Goals Std0.24
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean-0.28
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.50
History Matches10
Conceded Mean0.13
Conceded Std-0.42
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate3.8%
Conceded 3+ rate12.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.12
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.19
History Matches10
Result entropy-0.19
Goal Difference Std-0.13
Stability score19.17
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.39
Eligible Matches12
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate33.3%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate3.3%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches12
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-35.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.10
Current Team ELO-28.15
Current Opponent ELO28.15
Current ELO Difference-56.31
Expected score-0.08
History Matches10
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-1.48
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Cappellen
D
Cappellen0–0Wellen31 Oct · home
Pick: Cappellen 49% · missed W
Racing Mechelen1–3Cappellen24 Oct · away
Pick: Racing Mechelen 47% · missed L
Cappellen0–6Bocholt17 Oct · home
Pick: Cappellen 44% · missed D
Cappellen3–3De Kempen29 Aug · home
Pick: Cappellen 60% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Nijlen
W
Nijlen1–0Bocholt7 Nov · home
Pick: Bocholt 47% · missed L
Rupel Boom1–0Nijlen1 Nov · away
Pick: Rupel Boom 70% · hit D
Nijlen3–3Hades24 Oct · home
Pick: Hades 49% · missed W
Diegem Sport1–4Nijlen21 Oct · away
Pick: Diegem Sport 63% · missed L
Union St. Gilloise3–0Nijlen18 Oct · away
Pick: Union St. Gilloise 75% · hit About this match
Cappellen and Nijlen meet in Second Amateur Division - VFV B on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 19:15 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Cappellen win 55.6%, draw 14.7%, Nijlen win 29.6%. The pick is Cappellen win. Over 2.5 goals: 73.8%. Both teams to score: 64.1%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.