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Second Amateur Division - VFV B Belgium VFV B - 12 2026

Tongeren vs Wilrijk

Tongeren Home · Elo 1,452
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Wilrijk Away · Elo 1,501
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tongeren win
Tongeren winPick
58.9%
Draw
18.9%
Wilrijk win
22.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.8%
No46.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.2%
Under 2.539.8%

How much we know

Tongeren history40 matches
Wilrijk history2 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 18:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.9%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Tongeren are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Wilrijk are rated 49 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,501 against 1,452. On rating alone Wilrijk would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.10 goals a game over 40 matches for Tongeren, against 1.00 over 2 for Wilrijk.

  • Defences are close

    Tongeren concede 1.98 a game, Wilrijk 2.00.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    53% of Tongeren matches, against 50% for Wilrijk. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tongeren
Wilrijk@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1452.0
ELO
1500.9
40
ELO · Matches
2
1452.0
Current Team ELO
1500.9
1500.9
Current Opponent ELO
1452.0
-48.86
Current ELO Difference
48.86
0.43
Expected score
0.57
40
History Matches
2
-0.06
Residual Mean
0.02
45.75
Overperformance
50.20
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
2
1.00
PPG
1.50
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
2.80
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
10
Matches
2
1.20
PPG
1.50
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
2.40
Goals against per game
2.00
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.00
2.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
2.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.00
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
3.95
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
40
Matches
2
1.00
PPG
1.50
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
52.5%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
42.5%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
Venue performance10 signals
100
19
Matches
1
1.11
PPG
3.00
26.3%
Win rate
100.0%
31.6%
Draw rate
0.0%
42.1%
Loss rate
0.0%
47.4%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
42.1%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
31.6%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
3.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
19
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.10
Goals for per game
1.00
57.5%
Scoring rate
100.0%
42.5%
BTTS rate
50.0%
0.79
Goals for per game
1.00
36.8%
Scoring rate
100.0%
15.8%
BTTS rate
0.0%
40
History Matches
2
1.10
Goals Mean
1.00
1.41
Goals Std
0.00
57.5%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
25.0%
Scored 2+ rate
0.0%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
0.79
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.98
Goals against per game
2.00
72.5%
Conceding rate
50.0%
1.84
Goals against per game
0.00
52.6%
Conceding rate
0.0%
40
History Matches
2
1.98
Conceded Mean
2.00
2.21
Conceded Std
2.00
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
32.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
50.0%
1.84
Venue Conceded Mean
0.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
27.5%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
42.5%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
47.4%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
63.2%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
27.5%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
42.5%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
47.4%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
63.2%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
27.5%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
40
History Matches
2
0.96
Result entropy
0.63
2.98
Goal Difference Std
2.00
3.98
Stability score
36.91
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
28
Eligible Matches
1
8
Lead Matches
0
62.5%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.75
Lead Points Retention
—
10
Trailing Matches
1
30.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
28
Halftime Coverage Matches
1
0.61
First Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
3.00
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
1.29
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
112.1
Rest days
140.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
22
Normal Rest History Matches
0
0.91
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
17
Long Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
0.16
Portability PPG Std
—
0.32
Portability PPG Range
—
75.63
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
40
Clean History Matches
2
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO-48.86
PPG-0.50
GF0.10
GA-0.03
PPG-1.89
PPG-0.50
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches38
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Failed-to-score rate42.5%
History Matches18
Clean-sheet rate-0.53
Failed-to-score rate63.2%
History Matches38
Goals Mean0.10
Goals Std1.41
Scored 1+ rate-0.43
Scored 2+ rate25.0%
Scored 3+ rate12.5%
Venue Goals Mean-0.21
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std1.66
History Matches38
Conceded Mean-0.02
Conceded Std0.21
Clean-sheet rate-0.23
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Conceded Mean1.84
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.87
History Matches38
Result entropy0.33
Goal Difference Std0.98
Stability score-32.93
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.95
Eligible Matches27
Lead Matches8
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate30.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches27
First Half Goals For Mean0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean-2.36
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.29
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days-27.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches22
Long Rest History Matches16
Long Rest Points Per Match1.00
Current Team ELO-48.86
Current Opponent ELO48.86
Current ELO Difference-97.73
Expected score-0.14
History Matches38
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-4.46
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Tongeren

W
De Kempen0–2Tongeren7 Nov · away
Pick: Tongeren 43% · hit
L
Tongeren3–4Rotselaar31 Oct · home
Pick: Tongeren 47% · missed
L
Sint-Truiden II7–5Tongeren25 Oct · away
Pick: Sint-Truiden II 48% · hit
L
Racing Mechelen4–1Tongeren17 Oct · away
Pick: Racing Mechelen 46% · hit
L
Diegem Sport1–0Tongeren4 Oct · away
Pick: Diegem Sport 54% · hit

Wilrijk

W
Wilrijk3–1Rotselaar7 Nov · home
Pick: Rotselaar 43% · missed
W
Hades2–3Wilrijk31 Oct · away
Pick: Hades 63% · missed
L
Wilrijk1–2Royal Antwerp II24 Oct · home
Pick: Royal Antwerp II 47% · hit
L
Rupel Boom4–1Wilrijk18 Oct · away
Pick: Rupel Boom 74% · hit
W
Eendracht Termien2–3Wilrijk4 Oct · away
Pick: Eendracht Termien 74% · missed

About this match

Tongeren and Wilrijk meet in Second Amateur Division - VFV B on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 18:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Tongeren win 58.9%, draw 18.9%, Wilrijk win 22.2%. The pick is Tongeren win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.2%. Both teams to score: 53.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.