Hades vs Diegem Sport
Match result probability Model pick: Diegem Sport win
Hades win
40.0%
Draw
19.8%
Diegem Sport winPick
40.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes60.5%
No39.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.569.0%
Under 2.531.0%
How much we know
Hades history39 matches
Diegem Sport history44 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Diegem Sport
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 17:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 18:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.2%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Diegem Sport are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Hades are rated 26 Elo points higher
Elo 1,493 against 1,467. On rating alone Hades would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.
-
Diegem Sport score more
1.28 goals a game over 39 matches for Hades, against 1.89 over 44 for Diegem Sport.
-
Defences are close
Hades concede 1.85 a game, Diegem Sport 2.05.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
62% of Hades matches, against 66% for Diegem Sport. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 30 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Diegem Sport@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1492.5
ELO
1466.9
39
ELO · Matches
44
1492.5
Current Team ELO
1466.9
1466.9
Current Opponent ELO
1492.5
25.65
Current ELO Difference
-25.65
0.54
Expected score
0.46
39
History Matches
44
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.03
49.24
Overperformance
47.67
0.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.20
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
0.80
1.80
Goals for per game
2.40
0.80
Goals against per game
3.60
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
0.70
1.70
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
3.50
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.54
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.50
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.96
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.07
Overall performance9 signals 90
39
Matches
44
1.26
PPG
1.27
35.9%
Win rate
34.1%
17.9%
Draw rate
25.0%
46.2%
Loss rate
40.9%
79.5%
Over 1.5 rate
93.2%
61.5%
Over 2.5 rate
65.9%
35.9%
Over 3.5 rate
54.5%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.36
Venue performance10 signals 100
19
Matches
21
1.53
PPG
1.33
47.4%
Win rate
33.3%
10.5%
Draw rate
33.3%
42.1%
Loss rate
33.3%
68.4%
Over 1.5 rate
90.5%
57.9%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
31.6%
Over 3.5 rate
57.1%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.59
19
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.28
Goals for per game
1.89
71.8%
Scoring rate
86.4%
56.4%
BTTS rate
75.0%
1.37
Goals for per game
1.81
89.5%
Scoring rate
95.2%
57.9%
BTTS rate
85.7%
39
History Matches
44
1.28
Goals Mean
1.89
1.20
Goals Std
1.56
71.8%
Scored 1+ rate
86.4%
30.8%
Scored 2+ rate
54.5%
17.9%
Scored 3+ rate
29.5%
1.37
Venue Goals Mean
1.81
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.85
Goals against per game
2.05
82.1%
Conceding rate
88.6%
1.42
Goals against per game
2.00
68.4%
Conceding rate
90.5%
39
History Matches
44
1.85
Conceded Mean
2.05
1.39
Conceded Std
1.58
51.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.3%
35.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
34.1%
1.42
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
11.4%
28.2%
Failed-to-score rate
13.6%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
9.5%
10.5%
Failed-to-score rate
4.8%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
11.4%
28.2%
Failed-to-score rate
13.6%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
9.5%
10.5%
Failed-to-score rate
4.8%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
11.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
39
History Matches
44
0.94
Result entropy
0.98
1.82
Goal Difference Std
2.36
5.98
Stability score
1.78
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
28
Eligible Matches
38
7
Lead Matches
7
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
57.1%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.67
10
Trailing Matches
16
0.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
28
Halftime Coverage Matches
38
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.93
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.97
0.46
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.11
1.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.21
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
202.3
Rest days
137.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
19
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.16
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.17
19
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.42
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.47
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.24
Portability PPG Std
0.53
0.48
Portability PPG Range
1.07
67.67
Portability Score
48.39
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
39
Clean History Matches
44
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO25.65
PPG-0.02
GF-0.60
GA-0.20
PPG0.19
PPG1.80
PPG1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate6.6%
Failed-to-score rate14.6%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate22.1%
Failed-to-score rate5.8%
History Matches-5
Goals Mean-0.60
Goals Std-0.36
Scored 1+ rate-0.15
Scored 2+ rate-0.24
Scored 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Goals Mean-0.44
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.53
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean-0.20
Conceded Std-0.19
Clean-sheet rate6.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate1.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.58
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.89
History Matches-5
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.54
Stability score4.20
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-2.04
Eligible Matches-10
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate14.3%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate-0.25
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-10
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.29
Portability PPG Range-0.59
Portability Score19.28
Rest days65.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.05
Current Team ELO25.65
Current Opponent ELO-25.65
Current ELO Difference51.30
Expected score0.07
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.57
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.52
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Hades
L
Racing Mechelen4–1Hades7 Nov · away
Pick: Racing Mechelen 45% · hit L
Hades2–3Wilrijk31 Oct · home
Pick: Hades 63% · missed D
Nijlen3–3Hades24 Oct · away
Pick: Hades 49% · missed L
Hades1–2Sint-Truiden II17 Oct · home
Pick: Hades 42% · missed L
Tempo Overijse3–0Hades29 Aug · away
Pick: Hades 42% · missed Diegem Sport
L
Tempo Overijse5–2Diegem Sport31 Oct · away
Pick: Diegem Sport 44% · missed D
Diegem Sport2–2Rupel Boom25 Oct · home
Pick: Rupel Boom 47% · missed L
Diegem Sport1–4Nijlen21 Oct · home
Pick: Diegem Sport 63% · missed W
Diegem Sport1–0Tongeren4 Oct · home
Pick: Diegem Sport 54% · hit D
Racing Mechelen1–1Diegem Sport30 Aug · away
Pick: Racing Mechelen 43% · missed About this match
Hades and Diegem Sport meet in Second Amateur Division - VFV B on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 18:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Hades win 40.0%, draw 19.8%, Diegem Sport win 40.2%. The pick is Diegem Sport win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.0%. Both teams to score: 60.5%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.