Wellen vs De Kempen
Match result probability Model pick: Wellen win
Wellen winPick
56.8%
Draw
15.7%
De Kempen win
27.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes53.7%
No46.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.565.6%
Under 2.534.4%
How much we know
Wellen history39 matches
De Kempen history2 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Wellen
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 19:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.8%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.
Why Wellen are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,487 against 1,490. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
De Kempen score far more
1.23 goals a game over 39 matches for Wellen, against 2.00 over 2 for De Kempen.
-
Wellen concede fewer
Wellen concede 1.59 a game, De Kempen 3.00.
-
De Kempen games more often go over 2.5 goals
56% of Wellen matches, against 100% for De Kempen. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 26 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
De Kempen@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1487.0
ELO
1490.2
39
ELO · Matches
2
1487.0
Current Team ELO
1490.2
1490.2
Current Opponent ELO
1487.0
-3.19
Current ELO Difference
3.19
0.50
Expected score
0.50
39
History Matches
2
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.25
48.74
Overperformance
47.77
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.25
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
2
0.80
PPG
0.50
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
2.20
Goals against per game
3.00
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
2
1.70
PPG
0.50
1.60
Goals for per game
2.00
1.40
Goals against per game
3.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.00
1.69
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.00
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
2.79
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.00
Overall performance9 signals 90
39
Matches
2
1.36
PPG
0.50
38.5%
Win rate
0.0%
20.5%
Draw rate
50.0%
41.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
56.4%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
20.5%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
2.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
Venue performance10 signals 100
19
Matches
1
1.79
PPG
1.00
52.6%
Win rate
0.0%
21.1%
Draw rate
100.0%
26.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
94.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
68.4%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
31.6%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
2.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
19
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.23
Goals for per game
2.00
69.2%
Scoring rate
100.0%
51.3%
BTTS rate
100.0%
1.74
Goals for per game
3.00
78.9%
Scoring rate
100.0%
52.6%
BTTS rate
100.0%
39
History Matches
2
1.23
Goals Mean
2.00
1.21
Goals Std
1.00
69.2%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
10.3%
Scored 3+ rate
50.0%
1.74
Venue Goals Mean
3.00
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.59
Goals against per game
3.00
82.1%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.53
Goals against per game
3.00
73.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
39
History Matches
2
1.59
Conceded Mean
3.00
1.43
Conceded Std
0.00
35.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
100.0%
20.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
100.0%
1.53
Venue Conceded Mean
3.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
39
History Matches
2
0.96
Result entropy
0.63
2.22
Goal Difference Std
1.00
3.70
Stability score
36.91
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
24
Eligible Matches
0
7
Lead Matches
0
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.90
Lead Points Retention
—
9
Trailing Matches
0
22.2%
Non-loss rate
—
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals 50
24
Halftime Coverage Matches
0
0.38
First Half Goals For Mean
—
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
—
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
—
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
—
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
202.3
Rest days
616.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
22
Normal Rest History Matches
1
1.45
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.00
16
Long Rest History Matches
0
1.13
Long Rest Points Per Match
—
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
0.13
Portability PPG Std
—
0.26
Portability PPG Range
—
79.65
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
39
Clean History Matches
2
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO-3.19
PPG0.86
GF-0.77
GA-1.41
PPG0.79
PPG0.30
PPG1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches37
Clean-sheet rate17.9%
Failed-to-score rate30.8%
History Matches18
Clean-sheet rate26.3%
Failed-to-score rate21.1%
History Matches37
Goals Mean-0.77
Goals Std0.21
Scored 1+ rate-0.31
Scored 2+ rate-0.17
Scored 3+ rate-0.40
Venue Goals Mean-1.26
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.43
History Matches37
Conceded Mean-1.41
Conceded Std1.43
Clean-sheet rate17.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.64
Conceded 3+ rate-0.79
Venue Conceded Mean-1.47
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.69
History Matches37
Result entropy0.33
Goal Difference Std1.22
Stability score-33.21
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.31
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.79
Eligible Matches24
Lead Matches7
Trailing Matches9
Halftime Coverage Matches24
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days-413.8
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches21
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.45
Long Rest History Matches16
Current Team ELO-3.19
Current Opponent ELO3.19
Current ELO Difference-6.37
Expected score-0.01
History Matches37
Residual Mean0.23
Overperformance0.98
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.31
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Wellen
D
Cappellen0–0Wellen31 Oct · away
Pick: Cappellen 49% · missed L
Wellen1–3Bocholt24 Oct · home
Pick: Wellen 38% · missed L
Eendracht Termien2–0Wellen16 Oct · away
Pick: Eendracht Termien 50% · hit W
Wellen1–0Rotselaar29 Aug · home
Pick: Wellen 52% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
De Kempen
L
De Kempen0–2Tongeren7 Nov · home
Pick: Tongeren 43% · hit L
Royal Antwerp II7–0De Kempen31 Oct · away
Pick: Royal Antwerp II 66% · hit L
De Kempen0–1Eendracht Termien24 Oct · home
Pick: Eendracht Termien 54% · hit L
Tempo Overijse2–0De Kempen17 Oct · away
Pick: Tempo Overijse 46% · hit D
Cappellen3–3De Kempen29 Aug · away
Pick: Cappellen 60% · missed About this match
Wellen and De Kempen meet in Second Amateur Division - VFV B on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Wellen win 56.8%, draw 15.7%, De Kempen win 27.6%. The pick is Wellen win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.6%. Both teams to score: 53.7%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.