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1st League - RS Bosnia & Herzegovina RS - 16 2026

Drina Zvornik vs Velež Nevesinje

Drina Zvornik Home · Elo 1,500
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Velež Nevesinje Away · Elo 1,489
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Drina Zvornik win
Drina Zvornik winPick
49.5%
Draw
24.9%
Velež Nevesinje win
25.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.7%
No48.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.0%
Under 2.548.0%

How much we know

Drina Zvornik history46 matches
Velež Nevesinje history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.5%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Drina Zvornik are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,500 against 1,489. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.33 goals a game over 46 matches for Drina Zvornik, against 1.36 over 47 for Velež Nevesinje.

  • Drina Zvornik concede fewer

    Drina Zvornik concede 1.09 a game, Velež Nevesinje 1.70.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    50% of Drina Zvornik matches, against 51% for Velež Nevesinje. The model puts this match at 52% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Drina Zvornik
Velež Nevesinje@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1499.6
ELO
1488.7
46
ELO · Matches
47
1499.6
Current Team ELO
1488.7
1488.7
Current Opponent ELO
1499.6
10.82
Current ELO Difference
-10.82
0.52
Expected score
0.48
46
History Matches
47
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.01
49.84
Overperformance
49.03
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.00
1.60
Goals for per game
2.80
1.80
Goals against per game
2.60
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.80
1.30
Goals for per game
2.20
1.30
Goals against per game
1.90
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.60
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.64
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
47
1.30
PPG
1.40
37.0%
Win rate
42.6%
19.6%
Draw rate
12.8%
43.5%
Loss rate
44.7%
69.6%
Over 1.5 rate
80.9%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
51.1%
17.4%
Over 3.5 rate
27.7%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.07
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
24
2.00
PPG
0.79
63.6%
Win rate
25.0%
9.1%
Draw rate
4.2%
27.3%
Loss rate
70.8%
77.3%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
54.5%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
22.7%
Over 3.5 rate
45.8%
2.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
22
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.33
Goals for per game
1.36
63.0%
Scoring rate
78.7%
41.3%
BTTS rate
53.2%
2.05
Goals for per game
1.13
81.8%
Scoring rate
70.8%
40.9%
BTTS rate
58.3%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
46
History Matches
47
1.33
Goals Mean
1.36
1.50
Goals Std
1.16
63.0%
Scored 1+ rate
78.7%
34.8%
Scored 2+ rate
38.3%
15.2%
Scored 3+ rate
10.6%
2.05
Venue Goals Mean
1.13
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.09
Goals against per game
1.70
67.4%
Conceding rate
72.3%
0.77
Goals against per game
2.63
59.1%
Conceding rate
87.5%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
46
History Matches
47
1.09
Conceded Mean
1.70
0.95
Conceded Std
1.62
32.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.7%
8.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.5%
0.77
Venue Conceded Mean
2.63
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.7%
37.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.3%
40.9%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
32.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.7%
37.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.3%
40.9%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
32.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
47
0.96
Result entropy
0.90
2.01
Goal Difference Std
2.07
4.50
Stability score
10.22
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
43
12
Lead Matches
9
91.7%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
1.00
12
Trailing Matches
17
16.7%
Non-loss rate
5.9%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
0.65
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.98
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.88
Rest days
83.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
10
0.17
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.20
23
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.30
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.11
16
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.63
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.18
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.02
Portability PPG Std
0.31
0.03
Portability PPG Range
0.61
96.95
Portability Score
62.02
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO10.82
PPG-0.10
GF-0.04
GA-0.62
PPG-1.00
PPG1.21
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate4.9%
Failed-to-score rate15.7%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate28.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.04
Goals Std0.35
Scored 1+ rate-0.16
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate4.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.92
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.60
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.62
Conceded Std-0.67
Clean-sheet rate4.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.17
Venue Conceded Mean-1.85
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.86
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.05
Stability score-5.72
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.19
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate10.8%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.41
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.29
Portability PPG Range-0.58
Portability Score34.93
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.03
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.20
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.45
Current Team ELO10.82
Current Opponent ELO-10.82
Current ELO Difference21.65
Expected score0.03
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.81
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Drina Zvornik

D
Drina Zvornik3–3FK Romanija Pale31 Oct · home
Pick: Drina Zvornik 41% · missed
W
Drina Zvornik2–0FK Majevica Lopare24 Oct · home
Pick: Drina Zvornik 66% · hit
W
Drina Zvornik4–0Famos Vojkovići17 Oct · home
Pick: Drina Zvornik 45% · hit
D
Drina Zvornik2–2Leotar29 Aug · home
Pick: Drina Zvornik 36% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Velež Nevesinje

L
Slavija2–0Velež Nevesinje31 Oct · away
Pick: Slavija 49% · hit
L
Velež Nevesinje1–8Laktaši24 Oct · home
Pick: Laktaši 61% · hit
L
Leotar3–0Velež Nevesinje21 Oct · away
Pick: Leotar 54% · hit
L
Velež Nevesinje2–3FK Romanija Pale17 Oct · home
Pick: Velež Nevesinje 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Drina Zvornik and Velež Nevesinje meet in 1st League - RS on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Drina Zvornik win 49.5%, draw 24.9%, Velež Nevesinje win 25.6%. The pick is Drina Zvornik win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.0%. Both teams to score: 51.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.