Zvijezda 09 vs Potkozarje
Match result probability Model pick: Zvijezda 09 win
Zvijezda 09 winPick
38.2%
Draw
24.9%
Potkozarje win
36.9%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes41.1%
No58.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.555.2%
Under 2.544.8%
How much we know
Zvijezda 09 history47 matches
Potkozarje history1 match
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Zvijezda 09
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.2%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.
Why Zvijezda 09 are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,488 against 1,508. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Potkozarje score more
1.38 goals a game over 47 matches for Zvijezda 09, against 2.00 over 1 for Potkozarje.
-
Potkozarje concede fewer
Zvijezda 09 concede 1.36 a game, Potkozarje 0.00.
-
Zvijezda 09 games more often go over 2.5 goals
51% of Zvijezda 09 matches, against 0% for Potkozarje. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Potkozarje@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1488.1
ELO
1507.6
47
ELO · Matches
1
1488.1
Current Team ELO
1507.6
1507.6
Current Opponent ELO
1488.1
-19.54
Current ELO Difference
19.54
0.47
Expected score
0.53
47
History Matches
1
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.47
49.17
Overperformance
52.25
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.47
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
1
0.80
PPG
3.00
0.80
Goals for per game
2.00
2.40
Goals against per game
0.00
20.0%
Win rate
100.0%
10
Matches
1
1.30
PPG
3.00
1.70
Goals for per game
2.00
1.90
Goals against per game
0.00
40.0%
Win rate
100.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
2.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
—
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.00
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
—
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.00
3.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
—
Overall performance9 signals 90
47
Matches
1
1.40
PPG
3.00
38.3%
Win rate
100.0%
25.5%
Draw rate
0.0%
36.2%
Loss rate
0.0%
68.1%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
51.1%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
29.8%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.23
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
Venue performance10 signals 100
24
Matches
0
1.71
PPG
—
50.0%
Win rate
—
20.8%
Draw rate
—
29.2%
Loss rate
—
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
—
45.8%
Over 2.5 rate
—
20.8%
Over 3.5 rate
—
2.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
24
History Matches
0
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.38
Goals for per game
2.00
59.6%
Scoring rate
100.0%
42.6%
BTTS rate
0.0%
1.58
Goals for per game
—
62.5%
Scoring rate
—
33.3%
BTTS rate
—
0.00
Goals for per game
2.00
0.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
47
History Matches
1
1.38
Goals Mean
2.00
1.62
Goals Std
—
59.6%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
34.0%
Scored 2+ rate
100.0%
23.4%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.58
Venue Goals Mean
—
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.36
Goals against per game
0.00
70.2%
Conceding rate
0.0%
1.08
Goals against per game
—
62.5%
Conceding rate
—
3.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
47
History Matches
1
1.36
Conceded Mean
0.00
1.34
Conceded Std
—
38.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
0.0%
14.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
1.08
Venue Conceded Mean
—
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
40.4%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
—
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
—
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
100.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
40.4%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
—
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
—
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
47
History Matches
1
0.99
Result entropy
0.00
2.23
Goal Difference Std
—
1.33
Stability score
100.0
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
47
Eligible Matches
0
6
Lead Matches
0
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
—
1.00
Lead Points Retention
—
14
Trailing Matches
0
28.6%
Non-loss rate
—
21.4%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals 50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
0
0.51
First Half Goals For Mean
—
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
—
0.87
Second Half Goals For Mean
—
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
—
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.88
Rest days
83.77
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.40
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
25
Normal Rest History Matches
0
1.64
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
16
Long Rest History Matches
0
0.94
Long Rest Points Per Match
—
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
5
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
0.10
Portability PPG Std
—
0.20
Portability PPG Range
—
83.58
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
47
Clean History Matches
1
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals StdVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded StdVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdGoal Difference StdRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO-19.54
PPG-1.60
GF-0.62
GA1.36
PPG-3.00
PPG-2.20
PPG-1.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches46
Clean-sheet rate-0.70
Failed-to-score rate40.4%
History Matches24
History Matches46
Goals Mean-0.62
Scored 1+ rate-0.40
Scored 2+ rate-0.66
Scored 3+ rate23.4%
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
History Matches46
Conceded Mean1.36
Clean-sheet rate-0.70
Conceded 2+ rate38.3%
Conceded 3+ rate14.9%
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.90
History Matches46
Result entropy0.99
Stability score-98.67
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.86
Eligible Matches47
Lead Matches6
Trailing Matches14
Halftime Coverage Matches47
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-5.00
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest History Matches25
Long Rest History Matches16
Current Team ELO-19.54
Current Opponent ELO19.54
Current ELO Difference-39.08
Expected score-0.06
History Matches46
Residual Mean-0.48
Overperformance-3.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.54
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Zvijezda 09
L
Zvijezda 090–1Radnik Bijeljina27 Oct · home
Pick: Zvijezda 09 39% · missed L
Kozara Gradiška2–0Zvijezda 0924 Oct · away
Pick: Kozara Gradiška 55% · hit D
Zvijezda 091–1Omarska21 Oct · home
Pick: Zvijezda 09 50% · missed W
Zvijezda 091–0Famos Vojkovići29 Aug · home
Pick: Famos Vojkovići 44% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Potkozarje
L
Omarska3–1Potkozarje1 Nov · away
Pick: Omarska 44% · hit L
Sutjeska Foča2–1Potkozarje17 Oct · away
Pick: Sutjeska Foča 54% · hit L
Kozara Gradiška1–0Potkozarje29 Aug · away
Pick: Kozara Gradiška 54% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Zvijezda 09 and Potkozarje meet in 1st League - RS on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Zvijezda 09 win 38.2%, draw 24.9%, Potkozarje win 36.9%. The pick is Zvijezda 09 win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.2%. Both teams to score: 41.1%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.