Kozara Gradiška vs FK Majevica Lopare
Match result probability Model pick: Kozara Gradiška win
Kozara Gradiška winPick
65.8%
Draw
18.5%
FK Majevica Lopare win
15.7%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes41.5%
No58.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.556.1%
Under 2.543.9%
How much we know
Kozara Gradiška history48 matches
FK Majevica Lopare history1 match
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Kozara Gradiška
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (65.8%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.
Why Kozara Gradiška are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Kozara Gradiška are rated 25 Elo points higher
Elo 1,513 against 1,488. On rating alone Kozara Gradiška would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.
-
Kozara Gradiška score far more
1.10 goals a game over 48 matches for Kozara Gradiška, against 0.00 over 1 for FK Majevica Lopare.
-
FK Majevica Lopare concede fewer
Kozara Gradiška concede 1.44 a game, FK Majevica Lopare 1.00.
-
Kozara Gradiška games more often go over 2.5 goals
44% of Kozara Gradiška matches, against 0% for FK Majevica Lopare. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FK Majevica Lopare@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1513.1
ELO
1487.6
48
ELO · Matches
1
1513.1
Current Team ELO
1487.6
1487.6
Current Opponent ELO
1513.1
25.46
Current ELO Difference
-25.46
0.54
Expected score
0.46
48
History Matches
1
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.53
50.49
Overperformance
47.48
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.53
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
1
1.40
PPG
0.00
1.00
Goals for per game
0.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
1
1.40
PPG
0.00
0.80
Goals for per game
0.00
1.10
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.00
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
—
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
—
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.00
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
—
Overall performance9 signals 90
48
Matches
1
1.31
PPG
0.00
37.5%
Win rate
0.0%
18.8%
Draw rate
0.0%
43.8%
Loss rate
100.0%
64.6%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
43.8%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
31.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
Venue performance10 signals 100
22
Matches
0
1.86
PPG
—
54.5%
Win rate
—
22.7%
Draw rate
—
22.7%
Loss rate
—
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
—
63.6%
Over 2.5 rate
—
40.9%
Over 3.5 rate
—
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
22
History Matches
0
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.10
Goals for per game
0.00
64.6%
Scoring rate
0.0%
39.6%
BTTS rate
0.0%
1.68
Goals for per game
—
81.8%
Scoring rate
—
50.0%
BTTS rate
—
1.00
Goals for per game
—
100.0%
Scoring rate
—
0.0%
BTTS rate
—
48
History Matches
1
1.10
Goals Mean
0.00
1.10
Goals Std
—
64.6%
Scored 1+ rate
0.0%
29.2%
Scored 2+ rate
0.0%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.68
Venue Goals Mean
—
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.44
Goals against per game
1.00
70.8%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.23
Goals against per game
—
63.6%
Conceding rate
—
0.00
Goals against per game
—
0.0%
Conceding rate
—
48
History Matches
1
1.44
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.31
Conceded Std
—
41.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
0.0%
20.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
1.23
Venue Conceded Mean
—
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
35.4%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
—
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
—
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
—
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
—
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
35.4%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
—
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
—
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
48
History Matches
1
0.95
Result entropy
0.00
1.76
Goal Difference Std
—
5.03
Stability score
100.0
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
47
Eligible Matches
1
11
Lead Matches
0
90.9%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.94
Lead Points Retention
—
16
Trailing Matches
0
25.0%
Non-loss rate
—
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals 50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
1
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.00
0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.88
Rest days
382.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
27
Normal Rest History Matches
0
1.48
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
14
Long Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
—
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
0
3.00
PPG
—
100.0%
Win rate
—
0.0%
Draw rate
—
0.0%
Loss rate
—
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
—
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
—
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
—
1
Current Competition Matches
0
3.00
Current Competition PPG
—
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
—
3
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
0.08
Portability PPG Std
—
0.16
Portability PPG Range
—
86.44
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
48
Clean History Matches
1
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals StdVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded StdVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdGoal Difference StdRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO25.46
PPG1.31
GF1.10
GA0.44
PPG1.40
PPG1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches47
Clean-sheet rate29.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.65
History Matches22
History Matches47
Goals Mean1.10
Scored 1+ rate64.6%
Scored 2+ rate29.2%
Scored 3+ rate12.5%
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
History Matches47
Conceded Mean0.44
Clean-sheet rate29.2%
Conceded 2+ rate41.7%
Conceded 3+ rate20.8%
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
History Matches47
Result entropy0.95
Stability score-94.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.96
Eligible Matches46
Lead Matches11
Trailing Matches16
Halftime Coverage Matches46
First Half Goals For Mean0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Current Competition Matches1
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days-298.1
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest History Matches27
Long Rest History Matches14
Current Team ELO25.46
Current Opponent ELO-25.46
Current ELO Difference50.93
Expected score0.07
History Matches47
Residual Mean0.54
Overperformance3.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.59
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Kozara Gradiška
W
Kozara Gradiška4–0Famos Vojkovići31 Oct · home
Pick: Kozara Gradiška 51% · hit W
Kozara Gradiška2–0Zvijezda 0924 Oct · home
Pick: Kozara Gradiška 55% · hit L
Omarska1–0Kozara Gradiška18 Oct · away
Pick: Kozara Gradiška 43% · missed W
Kozara Gradiška1–0Potkozarje29 Aug · home
Pick: Kozara Gradiška 54% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
FK Majevica Lopare
L
Bosna Visoko5–2FK Majevica Lopare28 Oct · away
Pick: Bosna Visoko 45% · hit L
Drina Zvornik2–0FK Majevica Lopare24 Oct · away
Pick: Drina Zvornik 66% · hit D
Slavija1–1FK Majevica Lopare17 Oct · away
Pick: Slavija 65% · missed D
Omarska0–0FK Majevica Lopare30 Aug · away
Pick: Omarska 58% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Kozara Gradiška and FK Majevica Lopare meet in 1st League - RS on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Kozara Gradiška win 65.8%, draw 18.5%, FK Majevica Lopare win 15.7%. The pick is Kozara Gradiška win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.1%. Both teams to score: 41.5%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.