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III Liga - Group 2 Poland Group II - 17 2026

Elana Toruń vs Stargard Szczeciński

Elana Toruń Home · Elo 1,490
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Stargard Szczeciński Away · Elo 1,523
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Stargard Szczeciński win
Elana Toruń win
34.6%
Draw
23.6%
Stargard Szczeciński winPick
41.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.5%
No37.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.0%
Under 2.533.0%

How much we know

Elana Toruń history61 matches
Stargard Szczeciński history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.8%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Stargard Szczeciński are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Stargard Szczeciński are rated 32 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,523 against 1,490. On rating alone Stargard Szczeciński would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Stargard Szczeciński score more

    1.56 goals a game over 61 matches for Elana Toruń, against 1.89 over 64 for Stargard Szczeciński.

  • Defences are close

    Elana Toruń concede 1.61 a game, Stargard Szczeciński 1.53.

  • Stargard Szczeciński games more often go over 2.5 goals

    61% of Elana Toruń matches, against 69% for Stargard Szczeciński. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Elana Toruń
Stargard Szczeciński@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1490.5
ELO
1522.6
61
ELO · Matches
64
1490.5
Current Team ELO
1522.6
1522.6
Current Opponent ELO
1490.5
-32.09
Current ELO Difference
32.09
0.45
Expected score
0.55
61
History Matches
64
0.00
Residual Mean
0.02
49.67
Overperformance
51.74
-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.21
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
1.80
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
2.20
2.90
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.33
2.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.86
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
61
Matches
64
1.39
PPG
1.47
36.1%
Win rate
42.2%
31.1%
Draw rate
20.3%
32.8%
Loss rate
37.5%
80.3%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
60.7%
Over 2.5 rate
68.8%
41.0%
Over 3.5 rate
48.4%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
30
1.25
PPG
1.30
31.3%
Win rate
36.7%
31.3%
Draw rate
20.0%
37.5%
Loss rate
43.3%
84.4%
Over 1.5 rate
76.7%
56.3%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
40.6%
Over 3.5 rate
46.7%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.98
32
History Matches
30
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.56
Goals for per game
1.89
75.4%
Scoring rate
81.3%
60.7%
BTTS rate
60.9%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.53
75.0%
Scoring rate
73.3%
59.4%
BTTS rate
60.0%
1.60
Goals for per game
1.80
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
61
History Matches
64
1.56
Goals Mean
1.89
1.31
Goals Std
1.45
75.4%
Scored 1+ rate
81.3%
49.2%
Scored 2+ rate
51.6%
18.0%
Scored 3+ rate
34.4%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.53
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.61
Goals against per game
1.53
78.7%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.69
Goals against per game
1.70
81.3%
Conceding rate
76.7%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
61
History Matches
64
1.61
Conceded Mean
1.53
1.30
Conceded Std
1.30
44.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.3%
26.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.4%
1.69
Venue Conceded Mean
1.70
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
24.6%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
21.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
24.6%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
26.7%
21.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
61
History Matches
64
1.00
Result entropy
0.96
1.85
Goal Difference Std
2.17
0.17
Stability score
3.91
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
60
Eligible Matches
62
20
Lead Matches
27
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.84
20
Trailing Matches
18
30.0%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.77
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
0.83
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.97
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.92
Rest days
83.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
30
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.43
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.37
26
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.35
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.58
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.40
-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.20
5
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.65
0.80
Portability PPG Range
2.00
62.21
Portability Score
43.61
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
61
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-32.09
PPG-0.08
GF-0.33
GA0.08
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.05
PPG-0.40
PPG-1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate5.8%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.33
Goals Std-0.14
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Goals Mean-0.03
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.13
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.08
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate2.8%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.01
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.05
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.32
Stability score-3.74
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.14
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-7
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate7.8%
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.20
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.34
Portability PPG Range-1.20
Portability Score18.59
Rest days0.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.25
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.06
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Current Team ELO-32.09
Current Opponent ELO32.09
Current ELO Difference-64.18
Expected score-0.09
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.41

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Elana Toruń

L
Chemik Bydgoszcz2–1Elana Toruń7 Nov · away
Pick: Chemik Bydgoszcz 41% · hit
D
Elana Toruń0–0Victoria Września31 Oct · home
Pick: Elana Toruń 61% · missed
W
Bałtyk Koszalin2–3Elana Toruń24 Oct · away
Pick: Bałtyk Koszalin 38% · missed
W
Elana Toruń3–1Kotwica Kórnik17 Oct · home
Pick: Elana Toruń 65% · hit
L
Kalisz5–1Elana Toruń29 Aug · away
Pick: Kalisz 53% · hit

Stargard Szczeciński

D
Stargard Szczeciński0–0Noteć Czarnków7 Nov · home
Pick: Stargard Szczeciński 51% · missed
D
Unia Swarzędz0–0Stargard Szczeciński31 Oct · away
Pick: Stargard Szczeciński 41% · missed
W
Stargard Szczeciński3–1Grom Nowy Staw24 Oct · home
Pick: Stargard Szczeciński 64% · hit
D
Gedania Gdansk2–2Stargard Szczeciński17 Oct · away
Pick: Gedania Gdansk 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Elana Toruń and Stargard Szczeciński meet in III Liga - Group 2 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Elana Toruń win 34.6%, draw 23.6%, Stargard Szczeciński win 41.8%. The pick is Stargard Szczeciński win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.0%. Both teams to score: 62.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.