Lech Poznań II vs Bałtyk Koszalin
Match result probability Model pick: Lech Poznań II win
Lech Poznań II winPick
62.7%
Draw
15.3%
Bałtyk Koszalin win
22.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes55.6%
No44.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.564.8%
Under 2.535.2%
How much we know
Lech Poznań II history61 matches
Bałtyk Koszalin history6 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Lech Poznań II
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 10:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 11:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (62.7%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.
Why Lech Poznań II are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,521 against 1,499. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Lech Poznań II score far more
1.93 goals a game over 61 matches for Lech Poznań II, against 1.00 over 6 for Bałtyk Koszalin.
-
Bałtyk Koszalin concede fewer
Lech Poznań II concede 1.61 a game, Bałtyk Koszalin 1.33.
-
Lech Poznań II games more often go over 2.5 goals
64% of Lech Poznań II matches, against 50% for Bałtyk Koszalin. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bałtyk Koszalin@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1521.2
ELO
1498.7
61
ELO · Matches
6
1521.2
Current Team ELO
1498.7
1498.7
Current Opponent ELO
1521.2
22.45
Current ELO Difference
-22.45
0.53
Expected score
0.47
61
History Matches
6
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.01
51.15
Overperformance
49.76
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.00
2.40
Goals for per game
0.80
1.80
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
6
1.40
PPG
1.33
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
2.00
Goals against per game
1.33
40.0%
Win rate
33.3%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.34
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.58
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.33
1.34
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
1.00
1.95
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.37
Overall performance9 signals 90
61
Matches
6
1.48
PPG
1.33
41.0%
Win rate
33.3%
24.6%
Draw rate
33.3%
34.4%
Loss rate
33.3%
88.5%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
63.9%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
47.5%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
Venue performance10 signals 100
30
Matches
3
1.73
PPG
2.33
50.0%
Win rate
66.7%
23.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
26.7%
Loss rate
0.0%
93.3%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
30
History Matches
3
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.93
Goals for per game
1.00
82.0%
Scoring rate
83.3%
68.9%
BTTS rate
66.7%
2.10
Goals for per game
1.33
93.3%
Scoring rate
100.0%
70.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
2.40
Goals for per game
0.80
100.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
61
History Matches
6
1.93
Goals Mean
1.00
1.59
Goals Std
0.58
82.0%
Scored 1+ rate
83.3%
52.5%
Scored 2+ rate
16.7%
31.1%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
2.10
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.61
Goals against per game
1.33
83.6%
Conceding rate
83.3%
1.30
Goals against per game
0.67
76.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.80
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
61
History Matches
6
1.61
Conceded Mean
1.33
1.20
Conceded Std
0.94
45.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
19.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.7%
1.30
Venue Conceded Mean
0.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
16.4%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
18.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
6.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
16.4%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
18.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
6.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
16.4%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
61
History Matches
6
0.98
Result entropy
1.00
2.12
Goal Difference Std
1.37
1.91
Stability score
0.00
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
54
Eligible Matches
6
22
Lead Matches
2
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.67
16
Trailing Matches
1
18.8%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
6
0.89
First Half Goals For Mean
0.33
0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.17
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.94
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.17
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.04
Rest days
82.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
34
Normal Rest History Matches
3
1.65
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
25
Long Rest History Matches
2
1.20
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.50
Competition & season17 signals 170
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.60
5
Competition Season Count
2
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.34
Portability PPG Std
—
1.00
Portability PPG Range
—
59.28
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
61
Clean History Matches
6
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO22.45
PPG0.14
GF0.93
GA0.27
PPG1.00
PPG-0.60
PPG1.00
PPG0.07
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches55
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate1.4%
History Matches27
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate6.7%
History Matches55
Goals Mean0.93
Goals Std1.01
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate35.8%
Scored 3+ rate31.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.77
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.76
History Matches55
Conceded Mean0.27
Conceded Std0.26
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Conceded 2+ rate12.6%
Conceded 3+ rate3.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.63
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.40
History Matches55
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.75
Stability score1.91
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.57
Eligible Matches48
Lead Matches20
Lead Win Rate31.8%
Lead Points Retention0.20
Trailing Matches15
Non-loss rate18.8%
Trailing Win Rate12.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches48
First Half Goals For Mean0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean0.48
Second Half Goals For Mean0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.20
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count4
Rest days0.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches31
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.31
Long Rest History Matches23
Long Rest Points Per Match0.70
Current Team ELO22.45
Current Opponent ELO-22.45
Current ELO Difference44.90
Expected score0.06
History Matches55
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance1.39
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Lech Poznań II
W
Kotwica Kórnik1–4Lech Poznań II7 Nov · away
Pick: Lech Poznań II 53% · hit L
Kluczevia Stargard4–3Lech Poznań II4 Nov · away
Pick: Kluczevia Stargard 43% · hit W
Lech Poznań II8–1Flota Świnoujście31 Oct · home
Pick: Flota Świnoujście 41% · missed W
Luzino2–4Lech Poznań II24 Oct · away
Pick: Luzino 54% · missed L
Lech Poznań II2–3Polonia Środa18 Oct · home
Pick: Polonia Środa 51% · hit Bałtyk Koszalin
D
Bałtyk Koszalin0–0Kluczevia Stargard7 Nov · home
Pick: Kluczevia Stargard 55% · missed D
Wda Świecie1–1Bałtyk Koszalin31 Oct · away
Pick: Wda Świecie 65% · missed L
Bałtyk Koszalin2–3Elana Toruń24 Oct · home
Pick: Bałtyk Koszalin 38% · missed W
Noteć Czarnków0–3Bałtyk Koszalin17 Oct · away
Pick: Noteć Czarnków 62% · missed W
Bałtyk Koszalin2–0Victoria Września29 Aug · home
Pick: Bałtyk Koszalin 50% · hit About this match
Lech Poznań II and Bałtyk Koszalin meet in III Liga - Group 2 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. The match is played at Amica Wronki Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Lech Poznań II win 62.7%, draw 15.3%, Bałtyk Koszalin win 22.1%. The pick is Lech Poznań II win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.8%. Both teams to score: 55.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.