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III Liga - Group 2 Poland Group II - 17 2026

Luzino vs Flota Świnoujście

Luzino Home · Elo 1,614
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Flota Świnoujście Away · Elo 1,473
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Luzino win
Luzino winPick
43.1%
Draw
26.6%
Flota Świnoujście win
30.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.4%
No41.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.3%
Under 2.541.7%

How much we know

Luzino history45 matches
Flota Świnoujście history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.1%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Luzino are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Luzino are rated 140 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,614 against 1,473. On rating alone Luzino would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • Luzino score far more

    2.18 goals a game over 45 matches for Luzino, against 1.33 over 61 for Flota Świnoujście.

  • Luzino concede fewer

    Luzino concede 1.18 a game, Flota Świnoujście 1.61.

  • Luzino games more often go over 2.5 goals

    69% of Luzino matches, against 57% for Flota Świnoujście. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Luzino
Flota Świnoujście@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1614.0
ELO
1473.5
45
ELO · Matches
61
1614.0
Current Team ELO
1473.5
1473.5
Current Opponent ELO
1614.0
140.5
Current ELO Difference
-140.5
0.69
Expected score
0.31
45
History Matches
61
0.12
Residual Mean
-0.03
58.40
Overperformance
48.08
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.00
2.80
Goals for per game
2.00
1.40
Goals against per game
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.10
1.90
Goals for per game
1.40
1.50
Goals against per game
1.60
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.76
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.28
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.85
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.40
Overall performance9 signals
90
45
Matches
61
2.11
PPG
1.26
66.7%
Win rate
34.4%
11.1%
Draw rate
23.0%
22.2%
Loss rate
42.6%
86.7%
Over 1.5 rate
78.7%
68.9%
Over 2.5 rate
57.4%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
34.4%
1.81
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
32
2.45
PPG
1.25
77.3%
Win rate
34.4%
13.6%
Draw rate
21.9%
9.1%
Loss rate
43.8%
86.4%
Over 1.5 rate
81.3%
72.7%
Over 2.5 rate
53.1%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
34.4%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
22
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.18
Goals for per game
1.33
91.1%
Scoring rate
72.1%
64.4%
BTTS rate
52.5%
2.45
Goals for per game
1.19
95.5%
Scoring rate
68.8%
59.1%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.80
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
45
History Matches
61
2.18
Goals Mean
1.33
1.54
Goals Std
1.13
91.1%
Scored 1+ rate
72.1%
62.2%
Scored 2+ rate
42.6%
31.1%
Scored 3+ rate
13.1%
2.45
Venue Goals Mean
1.19
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.18
Goals against per game
1.61
73.3%
Conceding rate
73.8%
1.09
Goals against per game
1.75
63.6%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.40
Goals against per game
0.60
100.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
45
History Matches
61
1.18
Conceded Mean
1.61
0.93
Conceded Std
1.37
35.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.5%
8.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.9%
1.09
Venue Conceded Mean
1.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
8.9%
Failed-to-score rate
27.9%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
4.5%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
8.9%
Failed-to-score rate
27.9%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
4.5%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
26.7%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
45
History Matches
61
0.77
Result entropy
0.97
1.81
Goal Difference Std
1.82
22.75
Stability score
2.75
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
43
Eligible Matches
58
23
Lead Matches
15
78.3%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.73
11
Trailing Matches
18
63.6%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
18.2%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
43
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
1.02
First Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
1.19
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.00
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
4
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.75
26
Normal Rest History Matches
33
2.08
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.06
17
Long Rest History Matches
23
2.06
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.48
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
1.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.40
5
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.54
Portability PPG Std
0.59
1.24
Portability PPG Range
1.60
48.28
Portability Score
46.00
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
45
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO140.5
PPG0.85
GF0.85
GA-0.43
PPG0.00
PPG1.20
PPG0.00
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate0.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate11.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.27
History Matches-16
Goals Mean0.85
Goals Std0.41
Scored 1+ rate19.0%
Scored 2+ rate19.6%
Scored 3+ rate18.0%
Venue Goals Mean1.27
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.33
History Matches-16
Conceded Mean-0.43
Conceded Std-0.44
Clean-sheet rate0.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Conceded Mean-0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.61
History Matches-16
Result entropy-0.20
Goal Difference Std-0.01
Stability score20.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.55
Eligible Matches-15
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate11.6%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate30.3%
Trailing Win Rate1.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-15
First Half Goals For Mean0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.27
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.36
Portability Score2.28
Rest days-1.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match1.25
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.02
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.58
Current Team ELO140.5
Current Opponent ELO-140.5
Current ELO Difference281.0
Expected score0.38
History Matches-16
Residual Mean0.15
Overperformance10.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Luzino

D
Kalisz1–1Luzino7 Nov · away
Pick: Luzino 44% · missed
L
Polonia Środa5–2Luzino31 Oct · away
Pick: Polonia Środa 54% · hit
L
Luzino2–4Lech Poznań II24 Oct · home
Pick: Luzino 54% · missed
L
Kluczevia Stargard3–2Luzino17 Oct · away
Pick: Luzino 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Flota Świnoujście

L
Lech Poznań II8–1Flota Świnoujście31 Oct · away
Pick: Flota Świnoujście 41% · missed
D
Kluczevia Stargard2–2Flota Świnoujście24 Oct · away
Pick: Flota Świnoujście 38% · missed
L
Wda Świecie1–0Flota Świnoujście18 Oct · away
Pick: Flota Świnoujście 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Luzino and Flota Świnoujście meet in III Liga - Group 2 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Luzino win 43.1%, draw 26.6%, Flota Świnoujście win 30.2%. The pick is Luzino win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.3%. Both teams to score: 58.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.