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III Liga - Group 2 Poland Group II - 17 2026

Kluczevia Stargard vs Victoria Września

Kluczevia Stargard Home · Elo 1,524
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Victoria Września Away · Elo 1,461
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kluczevia Stargard win
Kluczevia Stargard winPick
58.2%
Draw
20.9%
Victoria Września win
20.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.3%
No43.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.2%
Under 2.541.8%

How much we know

Kluczevia Stargard history42 matches
Victoria Września history39 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.2%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Kluczevia Stargard are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Kluczevia Stargard are rated 64 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,524 against 1,461. On rating alone Kluczevia Stargard would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Kluczevia Stargard score far more

    1.81 goals a game over 42 matches for Kluczevia Stargard, against 1.10 over 39 for Victoria Września.

  • Defences are close

    Kluczevia Stargard concede 1.40 a game, Victoria Września 1.51.

  • Kluczevia Stargard games more often go over 2.5 goals

    79% of Kluczevia Stargard matches, against 54% for Victoria Września. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kluczevia Stargard
Victoria Września@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1524.5
ELO
1460.8
42
ELO · Matches
39
1524.5
Current Team ELO
1460.8
1460.8
Current Opponent ELO
1524.5
63.70
Current ELO Difference
-63.70
0.59
Expected score
0.41
42
History Matches
39
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.04
52.03
Overperformance
47.22
0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.60
3.00
Goals for per game
0.80
2.00
Goals against per game
2.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
0.90
2.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.90
Goals against per game
2.20
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.77
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.66
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.57
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.83
Overall performance9 signals
90
42
Matches
39
1.48
PPG
1.10
42.9%
Win rate
33.3%
19.0%
Draw rate
10.3%
38.1%
Loss rate
56.4%
90.5%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
78.6%
Over 2.5 rate
53.8%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
30.8%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
18
1.48
PPG
1.06
42.9%
Win rate
33.3%
19.0%
Draw rate
5.6%
38.1%
Loss rate
61.1%
81.0%
Over 1.5 rate
55.6%
81.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
19.0%
Over 3.5 rate
11.1%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
21
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.81
Goals for per game
1.10
88.1%
Scoring rate
64.1%
64.3%
BTTS rate
48.7%
1.52
Goals for per game
0.89
81.0%
Scoring rate
55.6%
57.1%
BTTS rate
38.9%
3.00
Goals for per game
0.80
100.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
42
History Matches
39
1.81
Goals Mean
1.10
1.16
Goals Std
1.03
88.1%
Scored 1+ rate
64.1%
54.8%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
28.6%
Scored 3+ rate
12.8%
1.52
Venue Goals Mean
0.89
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.40
Goals against per game
1.51
71.4%
Conceding rate
74.4%
1.29
Goals against per game
1.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
77.8%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.80
100.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
42
History Matches
39
1.40
Conceded Mean
1.51
1.18
Conceded Std
1.30
45.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.2%
19.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.5%
1.29
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
11.9%
Failed-to-score rate
35.9%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
11.9%
Failed-to-score rate
35.9%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
44.4%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
42
History Matches
39
0.95
Result entropy
0.84
1.84
Goal Difference Std
1.61
4.73
Stability score
16.01
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
40
Eligible Matches
39
14
Lead Matches
10
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
70.0%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.70
13
Trailing Matches
13
38.5%
Non-loss rate
7.7%
15.4%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
40
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
1.20
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.90
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.00
Rest days
84.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.75
25
Normal Rest History Matches
18
1.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.94
14
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.36
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.19
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
80.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
80.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.20
Current Competition PPG
0.60
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
3
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.37
Portability PPG Std
0.29
0.84
Portability PPG Range
0.58
57.71
Portability Score
63.22
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
42
Clean History Matches
39
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO63.70
PPG0.37
GF0.71
GA-0.11
PPG1.60
PPG0.42
PPG1.60
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate2.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate11.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.71
Goals Std0.13
Scored 1+ rate24.0%
Scored 2+ rate21.4%
Scored 3+ rate15.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.63
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.25
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.11
Conceded Std-0.12
Clean-sheet rate2.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.62
History Matches3
Result entropy0.11
Goal Difference Std0.23
Stability score-11.28
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.27
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate8.6%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate30.8%
Trailing Win Rate7.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals For Mean0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.08
Portability PPG Range0.25
Portability Score-5.51
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.75
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.74
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.17
Current Team ELO63.70
Current Opponent ELO-63.70
Current ELO Difference127.4
Expected score0.18
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance4.81
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.27

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kluczevia Stargard

D
Bałtyk Koszalin0–0Kluczevia Stargard7 Nov · away
Pick: Kluczevia Stargard 55% · missed
W
Kluczevia Stargard4–3Lech Poznań II4 Nov · home
Pick: Kluczevia Stargard 43% · hit
W
Kluczevia Stargard1–0Kotwica Kórnik31 Oct · home
Pick: Kluczevia Stargard 66% · hit
D
Kluczevia Stargard2–2Flota Świnoujście24 Oct · home
Pick: Flota Świnoujście 38% · missed
W
Kluczevia Stargard3–2Luzino17 Oct · home
Pick: Luzino 45% · missed

Victoria Września

D
Elana Toruń0–0Victoria Września31 Oct · away
Pick: Elana Toruń 61% · missed
L
Victoria Września0–1Noteć Czarnków24 Oct · home
Pick: Noteć Czarnków 53% · hit
D
Unia Swarzędz0–0Victoria Września17 Oct · away
Pick: Unia Swarzędz 62% · missed
L
Bałtyk Koszalin2–0Victoria Września29 Aug · away
Pick: Bałtyk Koszalin 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Kluczevia Stargard and Victoria Września meet in III Liga - Group 2 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Kluczevia Stargard win 58.2%, draw 20.9%, Victoria Września win 20.8%. The pick is Kluczevia Stargard win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.2%. Both teams to score: 56.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.