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III Liga - Group 2 Poland Group II - 17 2026

Unia Swarzędz vs Gedania Gdansk

Unia Swarzędz Home · Elo 1,531
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Gedania Gdansk Away · Elo 1,471
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Unia Swarzędz win
Unia Swarzędz winPick
52.1%
Draw
18.6%
Gedania Gdansk win
29.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.7%
No41.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.1%
Under 2.530.9%

How much we know

Unia Swarzędz history62 matches
Gedania Gdansk history25 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.1%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Unia Swarzędz are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Unia Swarzędz are rated 60 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,531 against 1,471. On rating alone Unia Swarzędz would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.56 goals a game over 62 matches for Unia Swarzędz, against 1.48 over 25 for Gedania Gdansk.

  • Unia Swarzędz concede fewer

    Unia Swarzędz concede 1.39 a game, Gedania Gdansk 2.12.

  • Gedania Gdansk games more often go over 2.5 goals

    55% of Unia Swarzędz matches, against 68% for Gedania Gdansk. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Unia Swarzędz
Gedania Gdansk@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1530.9
ELO
1471.1
62
ELO · Matches
25
1530.9
Current Team ELO
1471.1
1471.1
Current Opponent ELO
1530.9
59.85
Current ELO Difference
-59.85
0.59
Expected score
0.41
62
History Matches
25
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.07
52.10
Overperformance
46.20
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
2.40
1.80
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
2.00
1.90
Goals against per game
2.60
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.55
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.60
1.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.59
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.06
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
25
1.53
PPG
1.20
43.5%
Win rate
36.0%
22.6%
Draw rate
12.0%
33.9%
Loss rate
52.0%
74.2%
Over 1.5 rate
92.0%
54.8%
Over 2.5 rate
68.0%
37.1%
Over 3.5 rate
48.0%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.45
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
14
1.44
PPG
1.00
40.6%
Win rate
28.6%
21.9%
Draw rate
14.3%
37.5%
Loss rate
57.1%
68.8%
Over 1.5 rate
92.9%
40.6%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.54
32
History Matches
14
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.56
Goals for per game
1.48
66.1%
Scoring rate
60.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
44.0%
1.34
Goals for per game
1.29
56.3%
Scoring rate
50.0%
43.8%
BTTS rate
28.6%
1.20
Goals for per game
2.40
40.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
62
History Matches
25
1.56
Goals Mean
1.48
1.44
Goals Std
1.50
66.1%
Scored 1+ rate
60.0%
48.4%
Scored 2+ rate
48.0%
29.0%
Scored 3+ rate
24.0%
1.34
Venue Goals Mean
1.29
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.39
Goals against per game
2.12
75.8%
Conceding rate
84.0%
1.28
Goals against per game
2.07
75.0%
Conceding rate
78.6%
1.80
Goals against per game
2.20
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
62
History Matches
25
1.39
Conceded Mean
2.12
1.25
Conceded Std
1.51
40.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
64.0%
12.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
36.0%
1.28
Venue Conceded Mean
2.07
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
16.0%
33.9%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
43.8%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
60.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
16.0%
33.9%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
43.8%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
16.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
25
0.97
Result entropy
0.88
1.92
Goal Difference Std
2.45
3.08
Stability score
12.41
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
60
Eligible Matches
24
21
Lead Matches
7
81.0%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.81
20
Trailing Matches
11
30.0%
Non-loss rate
9.1%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
60
Halftime Coverage Matches
24
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.04
Rest days
83.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
33
Normal Rest History Matches
12
1.39
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.92
24
Long Rest History Matches
11
1.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.73
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
60.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
80.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.98
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.20
Current Competition PPG
1.20
-0.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.20
5
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.46
Portability PPG Std
0.09
1.20
Portability PPG Range
0.20
52.22
Portability Score
84.14
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
25
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO59.85
PPG0.33
GF0.08
GA-0.73
PPG0.00
PPG0.44
PPG0.00
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches37
Clean-sheet rate8.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches18
Clean-sheet rate3.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches37
Goals Mean0.08
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate6.1%
Scored 2+ rate0.4%
Scored 3+ rate5.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.15
History Matches37
Conceded Mean-0.73
Conceded Std-0.26
Clean-sheet rate8.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.24
Conceded 3+ rate-0.23
Venue Conceded Mean-0.79
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.72
History Matches37
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.53
Stability score-9.33
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.53
Eligible Matches36
Lead Matches14
Lead Win Rate9.5%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate20.9%
Trailing Win Rate0.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches36
First Half Goals For Mean0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.67
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.80
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.36
Portability PPG Range1.00
Portability Score-31.92
Rest days-0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match1.75
Normal Rest History Matches21
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.48
Long Rest History Matches13
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Current Team ELO59.85
Current Opponent ELO-59.85
Current ELO Difference119.7
Expected score0.17
History Matches37
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance5.90
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Unia Swarzędz

W
Lipno Stęszew1–2Unia Swarzędz7 Nov · away
Pick: Unia Swarzędz 42% · hit
D
Unia Swarzędz0–0Stargard Szczeciński31 Oct · home
Pick: Stargard Szczeciński 41% · missed
W
Chemik Bydgoszcz1–3Unia Swarzędz24 Oct · away
Pick: Chemik Bydgoszcz 36% · missed
D
Unia Swarzędz0–0Victoria Września17 Oct · home
Pick: Unia Swarzędz 62% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Gedania Gdansk

L
Gedania Gdansk1–2Grom Nowy Staw7 Nov · home
Pick: Gedania Gdansk 52% · missed
D
Gedania Gdansk0–0Kalisz31 Oct · home
Pick: Gedania Gdansk 39% · missed
W
Lipno Stęszew1–2Gedania Gdansk24 Oct · away
Pick: Lipno Stęszew 42% · missed
D
Gedania Gdansk2–2Stargard Szczeciński17 Oct · home
Pick: Gedania Gdansk 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Unia Swarzędz and Gedania Gdansk meet in III Liga - Group 2 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Unia Swarzędz win 52.1%, draw 18.6%, Gedania Gdansk win 29.3%. The pick is Unia Swarzędz win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.1%. Both teams to score: 58.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.