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III Liga - Group 2 Poland Group II - 17 2026

Noteć Czarnków vs Lipno Stęszew

Noteć Czarnków Home · Elo 1,515
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lipno Stęszew Away · Elo 1,494
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Noteć Czarnków win
Noteć Czarnków winPick
56.0%
Draw
19.8%
Lipno Stęszew win
24.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.9%
No41.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.8%
Under 2.538.2%

How much we know

Noteć Czarnków history57 matches
Lipno Stęszew history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.0%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Noteć Czarnków are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,515 against 1,494. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Noteć Czarnków score more

    1.58 goals a game over 57 matches for Noteć Czarnków, against 1.33 over 43 for Lipno Stęszew.

  • Defences are close

    Noteć Czarnków concede 1.56 a game, Lipno Stęszew 1.67.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    56% of Noteć Czarnków matches, against 56% for Lipno Stęszew. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Noteć Czarnków
Lipno Stęszew@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1515.3
ELO
1493.6
57
ELO · Matches
43
1515.3
Current Team ELO
1493.6
1493.6
Current Opponent ELO
1515.3
21.69
Current ELO Difference
-21.69
0.53
Expected score
0.47
57
History Matches
43
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.01
50.24
Overperformance
49.36
0.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.20
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.60
Goals against per game
2.20
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.30
1.90
Goals for per game
1.70
1.20
Goals against per game
1.90
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.22
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.27
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.47
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.95
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.89
Overall performance9 signals
90
57
Matches
43
1.33
PPG
1.35
38.6%
Win rate
39.5%
17.5%
Draw rate
16.3%
43.9%
Loss rate
44.2%
82.5%
Over 1.5 rate
81.4%
56.1%
Over 2.5 rate
55.8%
35.1%
Over 3.5 rate
34.9%
2.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
22
1.56
PPG
1.27
48.0%
Win rate
36.4%
12.0%
Draw rate
18.2%
40.0%
Loss rate
45.5%
88.0%
Over 1.5 rate
90.9%
56.0%
Over 2.5 rate
59.1%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
31.8%
2.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.83
25
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.58
Goals for per game
1.33
64.9%
Scoring rate
76.7%
43.9%
BTTS rate
51.2%
1.96
Goals for per game
1.27
72.0%
Scoring rate
72.7%
48.0%
BTTS rate
59.1%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
80.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
57
History Matches
43
1.58
Goals Mean
1.33
1.63
Goals Std
1.07
64.9%
Scored 1+ rate
76.7%
43.9%
Scored 2+ rate
37.2%
29.8%
Scored 3+ rate
14.0%
1.96
Venue Goals Mean
1.27
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.56
Goals against per game
1.67
73.7%
Conceding rate
74.4%
1.28
Goals against per game
1.73
76.0%
Conceding rate
86.4%
1.60
Goals against per game
2.20
60.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
57
History Matches
43
1.56
Conceded Mean
1.67
1.48
Conceded Std
1.34
42.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
51.2%
21.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
32.6%
1.28
Venue Conceded Mean
1.73
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
35.1%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
35.1%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
13.6%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
26.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
57
History Matches
43
0.94
Result entropy
0.93
2.44
Goal Difference Std
1.85
5.86
Stability score
6.86
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
51
Eligible Matches
42
15
Lead Matches
16
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.83
19
Trailing Matches
16
10.5%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
5.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
42
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.75
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
0.94
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.92
Rest days
83.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
32
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.25
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.45
23
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.39
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.28
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.20
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
80.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.06
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.98
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.80
Current Competition PPG
0.20
0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.20
5
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.23
Portability PPG Std
0.61
0.55
Portability PPG Range
1.30
68.65
Portability Score
44.93
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
57
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO21.69
PPG-0.02
GF0.25
GA-0.11
PPG1.60
PPG0.29
PPG1.60
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches14
Clean-sheet rate0.7%
Failed-to-score rate11.8%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate10.4%
Failed-to-score rate0.7%
History Matches14
Goals Mean0.25
Goals Std0.56
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate6.7%
Scored 3+ rate15.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.69
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.05
History Matches14
Conceded Mean-0.11
Conceded Std0.13
Clean-sheet rate0.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-0.45
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.25
History Matches14
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.58
Stability score-1.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.07
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate25.0%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate10.5%
Trailing Win Rate5.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.60
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.38
Portability PPG Range-0.75
Portability Score23.72
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.20
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.11
Current Team ELO21.69
Current Opponent ELO-21.69
Current ELO Difference43.37
Expected score0.06
History Matches14
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.87
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Noteć Czarnków

D
Stargard Szczeciński0–0Noteć Czarnków7 Nov · away
Pick: Stargard Szczeciński 51% · missed
L
Noteć Czarnków1–4Chemik Bydgoszcz31 Oct · home
Pick: Noteć Czarnków 64% · missed
W
Victoria Września0–1Noteć Czarnków24 Oct · away
Pick: Noteć Czarnków 53% · hit
L
Noteć Czarnków0–3Bałtyk Koszalin17 Oct · home
Pick: Noteć Czarnków 62% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Lipno Stęszew

L
Lipno Stęszew1–2Unia Swarzędz7 Nov · home
Pick: Unia Swarzędz 42% · hit
W
Grom Nowy Staw1–2Lipno Stęszew31 Oct · away
Pick: Grom Nowy Staw 47% · missed
L
Lipno Stęszew1–2Gedania Gdansk24 Oct · home
Pick: Lipno Stęszew 42% · missed
W
Lipno Stęszew1–0Kalisz17 Oct · home
Pick: Kalisz 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Noteć Czarnków and Lipno Stęszew meet in III Liga - Group 2 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Noteć Czarnków win 56.0%, draw 19.8%, Lipno Stęszew win 24.1%. The pick is Noteć Czarnków win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.8%. Both teams to score: 58.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.