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Football League - Highland League Scotland Highland League - 17 2026

Forres Mechanics vs Rothes

Forres Mechanics Home · Elo 1,451
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Rothes Away · Elo 1,275
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Forres Mechanics win
Forres Mechanics winPick
85.2%
Draw
8.8%
Rothes win
6.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.0%
No44.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.579.6%
Under 2.520.4%

How much we know

Forres Mechanics history47 matches
Rothes history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 80%+ band (85.2%). Picks in that band won 83.1% of the time, and the model said 84.5% on average, over 177 matches. This band has few matches, so treat the figures with care.

Why Forres Mechanics are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Forres Mechanics are rated 176 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,451 against 1,275. On rating alone Forres Mechanics would be expected to take 73% of the points on offer.

  • Forres Mechanics score far more

    1.57 goals a game over 47 matches for Forres Mechanics, against 0.81 over 43 for Rothes.

  • Forres Mechanics concede fewer

    Forres Mechanics concede 1.98 a game, Rothes 3.91.

  • Rothes games more often go over 2.5 goals

    70% of Forres Mechanics matches, against 88% for Rothes. The model puts this match at 80% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Forres Mechanics
Rothes@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1450.6
ELO
1275.0
47
ELO · Matches
43
1450.6
Current Team ELO
1275.0
1275.0
Current Opponent ELO
1450.6
175.6
Current ELO Difference
-175.6
0.73
Expected score
0.27
47
History Matches
43
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.27
46.21
Overperformance
31.61
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.60
1.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
4.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
0.30
1.70
Goals for per game
0.90
1.90
Goals against per game
3.90
30.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.35
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.90
1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.37
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.30
1.99
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.90
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
43
1.13
PPG
0.19
29.8%
Win rate
4.7%
23.4%
Draw rate
4.7%
46.8%
Loss rate
90.7%
95.7%
Over 1.5 rate
95.3%
70.2%
Over 2.5 rate
88.4%
46.8%
Over 3.5 rate
67.4%
2.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
24
0.96
PPG
0.13
21.7%
Win rate
4.2%
30.4%
Draw rate
0.0%
47.8%
Loss rate
95.8%
95.7%
Over 1.5 rate
95.8%
52.2%
Over 2.5 rate
87.5%
39.1%
Over 3.5 rate
58.3%
2.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.18
23
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.57
Goals for per game
0.81
78.7%
Scoring rate
48.8%
68.1%
BTTS rate
48.8%
1.39
Goals for per game
0.58
73.9%
Scoring rate
33.3%
60.9%
BTTS rate
33.3%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.00
85.7%
Scoring rate
50.0%
85.7%
BTTS rate
50.0%
47
History Matches
43
1.57
Goals Mean
0.81
1.40
Goals Std
0.99
78.7%
Scored 1+ rate
48.8%
40.4%
Scored 2+ rate
25.6%
21.3%
Scored 3+ rate
4.7%
1.39
Venue Goals Mean
0.58
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.98
Goals against per game
3.91
89.4%
Conceding rate
97.7%
1.74
Goals against per game
3.83
87.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.57
Goals against per game
3.83
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
47
History Matches
43
1.98
Conceded Mean
3.91
1.42
Conceded Std
1.78
57.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
93.0%
27.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
81.4%
1.74
Venue Conceded Mean
3.83
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
10.6%
Clean-sheet rate
2.3%
21.3%
Failed-to-score rate
51.2%
13.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
10.6%
Clean-sheet rate
2.3%
21.3%
Failed-to-score rate
51.2%
13.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
10.6%
Clean-sheet rate
2.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
43
0.96
Result entropy
0.34
2.36
Goal Difference Std
2.08
3.88
Stability score
65.96
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
37
Eligible Matches
35
13
Lead Matches
4
76.9%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.50
18
Trailing Matches
26
22.2%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
37
Halftime Coverage Matches
35
0.81
First Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.92
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.66
0.89
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.31
0.95
Second Half Goals Against Mean
2.29
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
7
0.71
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.57
25
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.08
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.21
14
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
7
Matches
6
1.57
PPG
0.50
42.9%
Win rate
16.7%
28.6%
Draw rate
0.0%
28.6%
Loss rate
83.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.34
7
Current Competition Matches
6
1.57
Current Competition PPG
0.50
0.43
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.83
5
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.27
Portability PPG Std
0.18
0.61
Portability PPG Range
0.40
64.86
Portability Score
73.83
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO175.6
PPG0.94
GF0.76
GA-1.93
PPG1.07
PPG0.83
PPG0.80
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate8.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.30
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate13.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.41
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.76
Goals Std0.40
Scored 1+ rate29.9%
Scored 2+ rate14.8%
Scored 3+ rate16.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.81
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.40
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-1.93
Conceded Std-0.35
Clean-sheet rate8.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.36
Conceded 3+ rate-0.54
Venue Conceded Mean-2.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.15
History Matches4
Result entropy0.62
Goal Difference Std0.28
Stability score-62.08
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.09
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate26.9%
Lead Points Retention0.32
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate22.2%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean-1.34
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG1.07
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.26
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.09
Portability PPG Range0.21
Portability Score-8.97
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.14
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.87
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match1.29
Current Team ELO175.6
Current Opponent ELO-175.6
Current ELO Difference351.2
Expected score0.47
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.22
Overperformance14.60
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Forres Mechanics

W
Invergordon2–4Forres Mechanics31 Oct · away
Pick: Forres Mechanics 56% · hit
D
Forres Mechanics2–2Huntly17 Oct · home
Pick: Forres Mechanics 47% · missed
L
Forres Mechanics2–5Brora Rangers7 Oct · home
Pick: Brora Rangers 57% · hit
L
Forres Mechanics1–2Formartine United29 Aug · home
Pick: Formartine United 39% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Rothes

L
Rothes0–3Keith31 Oct · home
Pick: Keith 79% · hit
L
Rothes0–3Deveronvale24 Oct · home
Pick: Deveronvale 70% · hit
L
Rothes1–3Inverurie Loco Works17 Oct · home
Pick: Inverurie Loco Works 83% · hit
L
Rothes1–3Huntly7 Oct · home
Pick: Huntly 84% · hit
L
Buckie Thistle5–0Rothes29 Aug · away
Pick: Buckie Thistle 93% · hit

About this match

Forres Mechanics and Rothes meet in Football League - Highland League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Forres Mechanics win 85.2%, draw 8.8%, Rothes win 6.1%. The pick is Forres Mechanics win. Over 2.5 goals: 79.6%. Both teams to score: 56.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.