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Football League - Highland League Scotland Highland League - 17 2026

Keith vs Inverurie Loco Works

Keith Home · Elo 1,548
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Inverurie Loco Works Away · Elo 1,495
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Inverurie Loco Works win
Keith win
32.1%
Draw
24.4%
Inverurie Loco Works winPick
43.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.7%
No41.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.4%
Under 2.541.6%

How much we know

Keith history47 matches
Inverurie Loco Works history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.5%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Inverurie Loco Works are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Keith are rated 54 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,548 against 1,495. On rating alone Keith would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Inverurie Loco Works score more

    1.40 goals a game over 47 matches for Keith, against 1.67 over 48 for Inverurie Loco Works.

  • Keith concede fewer

    Keith concede 1.49 a game, Inverurie Loco Works 1.77.

  • Inverurie Loco Works games more often go over 2.5 goals

    47% of Keith matches, against 67% for Inverurie Loco Works. The model puts this match at 58% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Keith
Inverurie Loco Works@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1548.2
ELO
1494.5
47
ELO · Matches
48
1548.2
Current Team ELO
1494.5
1494.5
Current Opponent ELO
1548.2
53.66
Current ELO Difference
-53.66
0.58
Expected score
0.42
47
History Matches
48
0.05
Residual Mean
0.00
53.16
Overperformance
50.13
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.80
Goals against per game
0.80
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.50
1.90
Goals for per game
1.60
1.60
Goals against per game
2.10
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.64
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.56
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.97
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.65
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.69
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
48
1.51
PPG
1.42
40.4%
Win rate
41.7%
29.8%
Draw rate
16.7%
29.8%
Loss rate
41.7%
85.1%
Over 1.5 rate
85.4%
46.8%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
29.8%
Over 3.5 rate
47.9%
2.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.28
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
22
1.86
PPG
1.14
54.5%
Win rate
31.8%
22.7%
Draw rate
18.2%
22.7%
Loss rate
50.0%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
40.9%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
40.9%
2.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.44
22
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.40
Goals for per game
1.67
74.5%
Scoring rate
72.9%
53.2%
BTTS rate
54.2%
1.55
Goals for per game
1.23
72.7%
Scoring rate
59.1%
36.4%
BTTS rate
40.9%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.71
83.3%
Scoring rate
71.4%
83.3%
BTTS rate
71.4%
47
History Matches
48
1.40
Goals Mean
1.67
1.20
Goals Std
1.46
74.5%
Scored 1+ rate
72.9%
44.7%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
12.8%
Scored 3+ rate
27.1%
1.55
Venue Goals Mean
1.23
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.49
Goals against per game
1.77
72.3%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.09
Goals against per game
1.82
54.5%
Conceding rate
72.7%
2.33
Goals against per game
1.29
100.0%
Conceding rate
85.7%
47
History Matches
48
1.49
Conceded Mean
1.77
1.60
Conceded Std
1.50
34.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
54.2%
17.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
29.2%
1.09
Venue Conceded Mean
1.82
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.5%
Failed-to-score rate
27.1%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
40.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
27.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.5%
Failed-to-score rate
27.1%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
40.9%
27.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
48
0.99
Result entropy
0.94
2.27
Goal Difference Std
2.28
1.00
Stability score
6.41
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
41
Eligible Matches
43
12
Lead Matches
20
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
85.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.88
10
Trailing Matches
8
40.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
41
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
1.05
0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
0.90
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.16
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
9
1.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.56
24
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.46
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
14
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.79
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.13
Competition & season17 signals
170
6
Matches
7
0.50
PPG
1.71
0.0%
Win rate
42.9%
50.0%
Draw rate
42.9%
50.0%
Loss rate
14.3%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.29
6
Current Competition Matches
7
0.50
Current Competition PPG
1.71
-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.43
5
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.66
Portability PPG Std
0.69
1.47
Portability PPG Range
1.71
43.27
Portability Score
42.08
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO53.66
PPG0.09
GF-0.26
GA-0.28
PPG-1.21
PPG0.73
PPG-1.60
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate2.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate18.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.26
Goals Std-0.27
Scored 1+ rate1.6%
Scored 2+ rate-0.05
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean0.32
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.36
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean-0.28
Conceded Std0.09
Clean-sheet rate2.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.20
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-0.73
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.41
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.02
Stability score-5.41
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.04
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.10
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate40.0%
Trailing Win Rate10.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.41
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-1.21
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.76
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.03
Portability PPG Range-0.25
Portability Score1.18
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.31
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.04
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.66
Current Team ELO53.66
Current Opponent ELO-53.66
Current ELO Difference107.3
Expected score0.15
History Matches-1
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Keith

W
Rothes0–3Keith31 Oct · away
Pick: Keith 79% · hit
L
Dumbarton1–0Keith24 Oct · away
Pick: Dumbarton 56% · hit
W
Keith6–4Invergordon17 Oct · home
Pick: Keith 60% · hit
W
Keith1–0Turriff United7 Oct · home
Pick: Turriff United 40% · missed
W
Keith4–1Wick Academy29 Aug · home
Pick: Keith 69% · hit

Inverurie Loco Works

W
Inverurie Loco Works2–0Wick Academy31 Oct · home
Pick: Inverurie Loco Works 70% · hit
W
Rothes1–3Inverurie Loco Works17 Oct · away
Pick: Inverurie Loco Works 83% · hit
W
Inverurie Loco Works1–0Invergordon7 Oct · home
Pick: Inverurie Loco Works 76% · hit
W
Inverurie Loco Works3–1Lossiemouth29 Aug · home
Pick: Inverurie Loco Works 57% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Keith and Inverurie Loco Works meet in Football League - Highland League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Keith win 32.1%, draw 24.4%, Inverurie Loco Works win 43.5%. The pick is Inverurie Loco Works win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.4%. Both teams to score: 58.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.