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Football League - Highland League Scotland Highland League - 17 2026

Lossiemouth vs Turriff United

Lossiemouth Home · Elo 1,373
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Turriff United Away · Elo 1,494
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Turriff United win
Lossiemouth win
28.2%
Draw
22.7%
Turriff United winPick
49.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.9%
No51.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.2%
Under 2.546.8%

How much we know

Lossiemouth history50 matches
Turriff United history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.2%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Turriff United are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Turriff United are rated 120 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,494 against 1,373. On rating alone Turriff United would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Turriff United score far more

    0.74 goals a game over 50 matches for Lossiemouth, against 1.43 over 51 for Turriff United.

  • Turriff United concede fewer

    Lossiemouth concede 2.20 a game, Turriff United 1.14.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    60% of Lossiemouth matches, against 57% for Turriff United. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Lossiemouth
Turriff United@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1373.5
ELO
1493.8
50
ELO · Matches
51
1373.5
Current Team ELO
1493.8
1493.8
Current Opponent ELO
1373.5
-120.3
Current ELO Difference
120.3
0.33
Expected score
0.67
50
History Matches
51
-0.12
Residual Mean
-0.02
41.46
Overperformance
48.59
0.30
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.80
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.40
1.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
0.90
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.56
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.49
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.35
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
51
0.64
PPG
1.41
16.0%
Win rate
39.2%
16.0%
Draw rate
23.5%
68.0%
Loss rate
37.3%
82.0%
Over 1.5 rate
76.5%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
56.9%
38.0%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
2.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
29
0.69
PPG
1.52
19.2%
Win rate
44.8%
11.5%
Draw rate
17.2%
69.2%
Loss rate
37.9%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
65.5%
53.8%
Over 2.5 rate
51.7%
30.8%
Over 3.5 rate
20.7%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.09
26
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.74
Goals for per game
1.43
54.0%
Scoring rate
68.6%
44.0%
BTTS rate
47.1%
0.73
Goals for per game
1.31
53.8%
Scoring rate
51.7%
42.3%
BTTS rate
27.6%
1.71
Goals for per game
1.00
85.7%
Scoring rate
71.4%
71.4%
BTTS rate
42.9%
50
History Matches
51
0.74
Goals Mean
1.43
0.87
Goals Std
1.33
54.0%
Scored 1+ rate
68.6%
14.0%
Scored 2+ rate
43.1%
4.0%
Scored 3+ rate
19.6%
0.73
Venue Goals Mean
1.31
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.20
Goals against per game
1.14
86.0%
Conceding rate
68.6%
1.96
Goals against per game
1.00
84.6%
Conceding rate
58.6%
1.43
Goals against per game
0.86
85.7%
Conceding rate
57.1%
50
History Matches
51
2.20
Conceded Mean
1.14
1.52
Conceded Std
1.01
62.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.4%
40.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.7%
1.96
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
14.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.4%
46.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.4%
15.4%
Clean-sheet rate
41.4%
46.2%
Failed-to-score rate
48.3%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
14.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.4%
46.0%
Failed-to-score rate
31.4%
15.4%
Clean-sheet rate
41.4%
46.2%
Failed-to-score rate
48.3%
14.0%
Clean-sheet rate
31.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
51
0.77
Result entropy
0.98
2.02
Goal Difference Std
1.90
22.75
Stability score
2.11
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
41
7
Lead Matches
16
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.83
25
Trailing Matches
10
12.0%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
41
0.30
First Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.87
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.43
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
1.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
12
Short Rest History Matches
10
0.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.60
25
Normal Rest History Matches
24
0.72
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.29
12
Long Rest History Matches
16
0.42
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.56
Competition & season17 signals
170
7
Matches
7
2.00
PPG
1.43
57.1%
Win rate
42.9%
28.6%
Draw rate
14.3%
14.3%
Loss rate
42.9%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
57.1%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.12
7
Current Competition Matches
7
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.43
0.29
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.14
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.74
Portability PPG Std
0.32
1.60
Portability PPG Range
0.90
40.25
Portability Score
60.82
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-120.3
PPG-0.77
GF-0.69
GA1.06
PPG0.57
PPG-0.82
PPG0.40
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate14.6%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.26
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.69
Goals Std-0.46
Scored 1+ rate-0.15
Scored 2+ rate-0.29
Scored 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Goals Mean-0.58
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.03
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean1.06
Conceded Std0.51
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate30.6%
Conceded 3+ rate26.3%
Venue Conceded Mean0.96
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.86
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.21
Goal Difference Std0.12
Stability score20.64
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.14
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches15
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean0.38
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.56
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.57
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.14
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.42
Portability PPG Range0.70
Portability Score-20.58
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.85
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.57
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.15
Current Team ELO-120.3
Current Opponent ELO120.3
Current ELO Difference-240.6
Expected score-0.33
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-7.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.31

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Lossiemouth

L
Brora Rangers4–2Lossiemouth31 Oct · away
Pick: Brora Rangers 79% · hit
D
Strathspey Thistle2–2Lossiemouth16 Oct · away
Pick: Strathspey Thistle 40% · missed
W
Buckie Thistle2–4Lossiemouth7 Oct · away
Pick: Buckie Thistle 74% · missed
L
Inverurie Loco Works3–1Lossiemouth29 Aug · away
Pick: Inverurie Loco Works 57% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Turriff United

D
Turriff United1–1Fraserburgh31 Oct · home
Pick: Fraserburgh 56% · missed
D
Turriff United3–3Wick Academy24 Oct · home
Pick: Turriff United 72% · missed
L
Nairn County2–1Turriff United17 Oct · away
Pick: Turriff United 45% · missed
L
Keith1–0Turriff United7 Oct · away
Pick: Turriff United 40% · missed
L
Brora Rangers3–1Turriff United29 Aug · away
Pick: Brora Rangers 65% · hit

About this match

Lossiemouth and Turriff United meet in Football League - Highland League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Lossiemouth win 28.2%, draw 22.7%, Turriff United win 49.2%. The pick is Turriff United win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.2%. Both teams to score: 48.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.