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III Liga - Group 1 Poland Group I - 17 2026

Jagiellonia II vs Widzew II

Jagiellonia II Home · Elo 1,543
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Widzew II Away · Elo 1,529
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Widzew II win
Jagiellonia II win
34.0%
Draw
24.6%
Widzew II winPick
41.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.6%
No37.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.9%
Under 2.533.1%

How much we know

Jagiellonia II history58 matches
Widzew II history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.4%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Widzew II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,543 against 1,529. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Widzew II score more

    1.59 goals a game over 58 matches for Jagiellonia II, against 2.05 over 43 for Widzew II.

  • Jagiellonia II concede fewer

    Jagiellonia II concede 1.50 a game, Widzew II 1.86.

  • Widzew II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    57% of Jagiellonia II matches, against 74% for Widzew II. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Jagiellonia II
Widzew II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1543.3
ELO
1529.4
58
ELO · Matches
43
1543.3
Current Team ELO
1529.4
1529.4
Current Opponent ELO
1543.3
13.91
Current ELO Difference
-13.91
0.52
Expected score
0.48
58
History Matches
43
0.04
Residual Mean
0.04
52.99
Overperformance
52.49
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.00
1.80
Goals for per game
2.20
1.80
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.60
1.80
Goals for per game
2.00
1.70
Goals against per game
1.70
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.90
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.55
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.72
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
43
1.50
PPG
1.56
41.4%
Win rate
48.8%
25.9%
Draw rate
9.3%
32.8%
Loss rate
41.9%
81.0%
Over 1.5 rate
90.7%
56.9%
Over 2.5 rate
74.4%
41.4%
Over 3.5 rate
53.5%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.76
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
21
1.27
PPG
1.67
33.3%
Win rate
52.4%
26.7%
Draw rate
9.5%
40.0%
Loss rate
38.1%
76.7%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
36.7%
Over 3.5 rate
47.6%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.22
30
History Matches
21
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.59
Goals for per game
2.05
79.3%
Scoring rate
76.7%
60.3%
BTTS rate
58.1%
1.37
Goals for per game
1.95
73.3%
Scoring rate
81.0%
56.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.80
Goals for per game
2.20
80.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
58
History Matches
43
1.59
Goals Mean
2.05
1.25
Goals Std
1.67
79.3%
Scored 1+ rate
76.7%
44.8%
Scored 2+ rate
55.8%
25.9%
Scored 3+ rate
39.5%
1.37
Venue Goals Mean
1.95
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.50
Goals against per game
1.86
79.3%
Conceding rate
79.1%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.86
80.0%
Conceding rate
85.7%
1.80
Goals against per game
0.60
80.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
58
History Matches
43
1.50
Conceded Mean
1.86
1.16
Conceded Std
1.72
46.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.5%
15.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.6%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.86
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.9%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.9%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
20.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
43
0.98
Result entropy
0.85
1.78
Goal Difference Std
2.76
1.65
Stability score
14.85
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
43
17
Lead Matches
18
76.5%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.89
19
Trailing Matches
13
31.6%
Non-loss rate
7.7%
15.8%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.75
First Half Goals For Mean
1.14
0.72
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
0.82
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.09
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.17
Rest days
83.29
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
31
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.45
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.56
25
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.44
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.56
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.60
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.60
5
Competition Season Count
3
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.37
Portability PPG Std
0.52
0.94
Portability PPG Range
1.25
57.21
Portability Score
49.01
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO13.91
PPG-0.06
GF-0.46
GA-0.36
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.40
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate5.7%
Failed-to-score rate7.6%
History Matches15
Goals Mean-0.46
Goals Std-0.42
Scored 1+ rate2.6%
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean-0.59
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.65
History Matches15
Conceded Mean-0.36
Conceded Std-0.56
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Conceded 2+ rate0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.36
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.45
History Matches15
Result entropy0.13
Goal Difference Std-0.97
Stability score-13.20
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.02
Eligible Matches14
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate23.9%
Trailing Win Rate15.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches14
First Half Goals For Mean-0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.32
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.60
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.15
Portability PPG Range-0.31
Portability Score8.20
Rest days-0.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match3.00
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.11
Long Rest History Matches9
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.12
Current Team ELO13.91
Current Opponent ELO-13.91
Current ELO Difference27.81
Expected score0.04
History Matches15
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.51
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Jagiellonia II

W
Jagiellonia II2–1Polonia Lidzbark Warm.30 Oct · home
Pick: Jagiellonia II 68% · hit
D
Olimpia Elbląg0–0Jagiellonia II24 Oct · away
Pick: Olimpia Elbląg 46% · missed
L
Jagiellonia II1–3Swit18 Oct · home
Pick: Jagiellonia II 39% · missed
L
Jagiellonia II0–1Troszyn14 Oct · home
Pick: Jagiellonia II 62% · missed
D
Jagiellonia II1–1Lechia T. Mazowiecki29 Aug · home
Pick: Jagiellonia II 51% · missed

Widzew II

W
Mławianka Mława1–4Widzew II31 Oct · away
Pick: Widzew II 45% · hit
D
Widzew II2–2Łomża25 Oct · home
Pick: Widzew II 46% · missed
L
Widzew II0–1Warta Sieradz21 Oct · home
Pick: Widzew II 46% · missed
D
Lechia T. Mazowiecki1–1Widzew II18 Oct · away
Pick: Lechia T. Mazowiecki 42% · missed
W
Olimpia Zambrów3–4Widzew II30 Aug · away
Pick: Widzew II 48% · hit

About this match

Jagiellonia II and Widzew II meet in III Liga - Group 1 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Jagiellonia II win 34.0%, draw 24.6%, Widzew II win 41.4%. The pick is Widzew II win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.9%. Both teams to score: 62.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.