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III Liga - Group 1 Poland Group I - 17 2026

Ząbkovia Ząbki vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm.

Ząbkovia Ząbki Home · Elo 1,456
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Polonia Lidzbark Warm. Away · Elo 1,461
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ząbkovia Ząbki win
Ząbkovia Ząbki winPick
61.5%
Draw
15.5%
Polonia Lidzbark Warm. win
23.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes65.7%
No34.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.572.0%
Under 2.528.0%

How much we know

Ząbkovia Ząbki history41 matches
Polonia Lidzbark Warm. history9 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (61.5%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.

Why Ząbkovia Ząbki are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,456 against 1,461. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Ząbkovia Ząbki score more

    1.93 goals a game over 41 matches for Ząbkovia Ząbki, against 1.33 over 9 for Polonia Lidzbark Warm..

  • Ząbkovia Ząbki concede fewer

    Ząbkovia Ząbki concede 1.90 a game, Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 2.56.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    78% of Ząbkovia Ząbki matches, against 78% for Polonia Lidzbark Warm.. The model puts this match at 72% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ząbkovia Ząbki
Polonia Lidzbark Warm.@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1456.4
ELO
1461.4
41
ELO · Matches
9
1456.4
Current Team ELO
1461.4
1461.4
Current Opponent ELO
1456.4
-5.04
Current ELO Difference
5.04
0.49
Expected score
0.51
41
History Matches
9
-0.06
Residual Mean
-0.20
46.05
Overperformance
43.69
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.20
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.80
Goals against per game
2.80
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
9
0.90
PPG
0.78
1.10
Goals for per game
1.33
1.80
Goals against per game
2.56
20.0%
Win rate
22.2%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.33
1.22
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.56
1.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.34
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.77
2.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.87
Overall performance9 signals
90
41
Matches
9
1.24
PPG
0.78
36.6%
Win rate
22.2%
14.6%
Draw rate
11.1%
48.8%
Loss rate
66.7%
87.8%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
78.0%
Over 2.5 rate
77.8%
48.8%
Over 3.5 rate
55.6%
2.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
Venue performance10 signals
100
19
Matches
4
1.58
PPG
0.75
47.4%
Win rate
25.0%
15.8%
Draw rate
0.0%
36.8%
Loss rate
75.0%
73.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
63.2%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
42.1%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
2.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.87
19
History Matches
4
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.93
Goals for per game
1.33
78.0%
Scoring rate
77.8%
68.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.95
Goals for per game
1.50
73.7%
Scoring rate
75.0%
63.2%
BTTS rate
75.0%
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
80.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
41
History Matches
9
1.93
Goals Mean
1.33
1.80
Goals Std
0.94
78.0%
Scored 1+ rate
77.8%
48.8%
Scored 2+ rate
44.4%
24.4%
Scored 3+ rate
11.1%
1.95
Venue Goals Mean
1.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.90
Goals against per game
2.56
87.8%
Conceding rate
88.9%
1.47
Goals against per game
3.50
84.2%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.80
Goals against per game
2.80
60.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
41
History Matches
9
1.90
Conceded Mean
2.56
1.28
Conceded Std
1.34
56.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
77.8%
31.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
55.6%
1.47
Venue Conceded Mean
3.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
12.2%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
15.8%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
12.2%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
15.8%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
12.2%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
41
History Matches
9
0.91
Result entropy
0.77
2.41
Goal Difference Std
1.87
9.04
Stability score
22.75
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
41
Eligible Matches
9
12
Lead Matches
1
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
1.00
13
Trailing Matches
6
15.4%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
41
Halftime Coverage Matches
9
0.66
First Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.78
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.33
1.27
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.89
1.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.22
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.88
Rest days
83.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
22
Normal Rest History Matches
4
1.23
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.75
16
Long Rest History Matches
3
0.94
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.20
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
80.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
2.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.02
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.40
Current Competition PPG
0.20
-0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.40
3
Competition Season Count
2
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.16
Portability PPG Std
0.65
0.40
Portability PPG Range
1.30
75.24
Portability Score
43.48
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
41
Clean History Matches
9
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-5.04
PPG0.47
GF0.59
GA-0.65
PPG1.20
PPG0.83
PPG1.20
PPG0.12
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches32
Clean-sheet rate1.1%
Failed-to-score rate0.00
History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate15.8%
Failed-to-score rate1.3%
History Matches32
Goals Mean0.59
Goals Std0.86
Scored 1+ rate0.3%
Scored 2+ rate4.3%
Scored 3+ rate13.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.45
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.23
Recent 10 Goals Std0.28
History Matches32
Conceded Mean-0.65
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate1.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.22
Conceded 3+ rate-0.24
Venue Conceded Mean-2.03
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.76
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.19
History Matches32
Result entropy0.14
Goal Difference Std0.54
Stability score-13.71
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.16
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.41
Eligible Matches32
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate-0.25
Lead Points Retention-0.22
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.01
Trailing Win Rate7.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches32
First Half Goals For Mean0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.55
Second Half Goals For Mean0.38
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.20
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.49
Portability PPG Range-0.90
Portability Score31.76
Rest days0.79
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match3.00
Normal Rest History Matches18
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.48
Long Rest History Matches13
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.40
Current Team ELO-5.04
Current Opponent ELO5.04
Current ELO Difference-10.08
Expected score-0.01
History Matches32
Residual Mean0.14
Overperformance2.36
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ząbkovia Ząbki

L
Olimpia Elbląg2–0Ząbkovia Ząbki7 Nov · away
Pick: Olimpia Elbląg 54% · hit
W
Ząbkovia Ząbki2–0Swit31 Oct · home
Pick: Swit 46% · missed
D
Wisła Płock II2–2Ząbkovia Ząbki24 Oct · away
Pick: Wisła Płock II 55% · missed
D
Troszyn1–1Ząbkovia Ząbki18 Oct · away
Pick: Ząbkovia Ząbki 45% · missed
W
ŁKS Łódź II0–3Ząbkovia Ząbki14 Oct · away
Pick: Ząbkovia Ząbki 43% · hit

Polonia Lidzbark Warm.

L
Jagiellonia II2–1Polonia Lidzbark Warm.30 Oct · away
Pick: Jagiellonia II 68% · hit
W
Polonia Lidzbark Warm.3–0ŁKS Łódź II24 Oct · home
Pick: Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 41% · hit
L
Mławianka Mława3–2Polonia Lidzbark Warm.17 Oct · away
Pick: Mławianka Mława 66% · hit
D
Polonia Lidzbark Warm.2–2Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki29 Aug · home
Pick: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Ząbkovia Ząbki and Polonia Lidzbark Warm. meet in III Liga - Group 1 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Ząbkovia Ząbki win 61.5%, draw 15.5%, Polonia Lidzbark Warm. win 23.0%. The pick is Ząbkovia Ząbki win. Over 2.5 goals: 72.0%. Both teams to score: 65.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.