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III Liga - Group 1 Poland Group I - 17 2026

Troszyn vs Olimpia Zambrów

Troszyn Home · Elo 1,521
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Olimpia Zambrów Away · Elo 1,489
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Troszyn win
Troszyn winPick
50.3%
Draw
13.0%
Olimpia Zambrów win
36.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.4%
No38.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.577.2%
Under 2.522.8%

How much we know

Troszyn history40 matches
Olimpia Zambrów history7 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.3%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Troszyn are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Troszyn are rated 32 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,521 against 1,489. On rating alone Troszyn would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.05 goals a game over 40 matches for Troszyn, against 1.86 over 7 for Olimpia Zambrów.

  • Troszyn concede fewer

    Troszyn concede 1.55 a game, Olimpia Zambrów 2.43.

  • Olimpia Zambrów games more often go over 2.5 goals

    73% of Troszyn matches, against 100% for Olimpia Zambrów. The model puts this match at 77% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Troszyn
Olimpia Zambrów@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1521.1
ELO
1489.2
40
ELO · Matches
7
1521.1
Current Team ELO
1489.2
1489.2
Current Opponent ELO
1521.1
31.84
Current ELO Difference
-31.84
0.55
Expected score
0.45
40
History Matches
7
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.06
51.42
Overperformance
48.33
-0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.80
0.80
Goals for per game
2.60
3.00
Goals against per game
2.20
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
7
1.00
PPG
1.29
1.30
Goals for per game
1.86
2.00
Goals against per game
2.43
30.0%
Win rate
42.9%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.86
1.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.96
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.43
1.67
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.18
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.62
2.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.92
Overall performance9 signals
90
40
Matches
7
1.53
PPG
1.29
45.0%
Win rate
42.9%
17.5%
Draw rate
0.0%
37.5%
Loss rate
57.1%
92.5%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
72.5%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
45.0%
Over 3.5 rate
57.1%
2.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.92
Venue performance10 signals
100
19
Matches
3
1.74
PPG
1.00
52.6%
Win rate
33.3%
15.8%
Draw rate
0.0%
31.6%
Loss rate
66.7%
94.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
78.9%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
63.2%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
2.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
19
History Matches
3
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.05
Goals for per game
1.86
90.0%
Scoring rate
57.1%
65.0%
BTTS rate
42.9%
2.37
Goals for per game
1.00
89.5%
Scoring rate
33.3%
63.2%
BTTS rate
33.3%
0.80
Goals for per game
2.60
80.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
40
History Matches
7
2.05
Goals Mean
1.86
1.55
Goals Std
1.96
90.0%
Scored 1+ rate
57.1%
57.5%
Scored 2+ rate
42.9%
27.5%
Scored 3+ rate
42.9%
2.37
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.55
Goals against per game
2.43
72.5%
Conceding rate
85.7%
1.47
Goals against per game
3.00
68.4%
Conceding rate
100.0%
3.00
Goals against per game
2.20
100.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
40
History Matches
7
1.55
Conceded Mean
2.43
1.45
Conceded Std
1.18
45.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
85.7%
20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
57.1%
1.47
Venue Conceded Mean
3.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.5%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
10.5%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
27.5%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
10.0%
Failed-to-score rate
42.9%
31.6%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
10.5%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
27.5%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
40
History Matches
7
0.94
Result entropy
0.62
2.48
Goal Difference Std
2.92
6.05
Stability score
37.84
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
39
Eligible Matches
6
12
Lead Matches
3
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
15
Trailing Matches
3
26.7%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
39
Halftime Coverage Matches
6
0.87
First Half Goals For Mean
1.17
0.87
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.50
1.15
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.08
Rest days
82.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
25
Normal Rest History Matches
3
1.44
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
13
Long Rest History Matches
3
1.69
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.80
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
80.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
80.0%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.94
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.20
Current Competition PPG
1.80
-2.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.40
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.74
Portability PPG Std
—
1.48
Portability PPG Range
—
40.38
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
40
Clean History Matches
7
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO31.84
PPG0.24
GF0.19
GA-0.88
PPG-1.60
PPG0.74
PPG-1.60
PPG-0.29
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches33
Clean-sheet rate13.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.33
History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate31.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.56
History Matches33
Goals Mean0.19
Goals Std-0.41
Scored 1+ rate32.9%
Scored 2+ rate14.6%
Scored 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Goals Mean1.37
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.56
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.77
History Matches33
Conceded Mean-0.88
Conceded Std0.27
Clean-sheet rate13.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.41
Conceded 3+ rate-0.37
Venue Conceded Mean-1.53
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.50
History Matches33
Result entropy0.32
Goal Difference Std-0.44
Stability score-31.79
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.59
Eligible Matches33
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches12
Non-loss rate26.7%
Trailing Win Rate20.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches33
First Half Goals For Mean-0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.60
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days0.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches22
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.56
Long Rest History Matches10
Long Rest Points Per Match0.69
Current Team ELO31.84
Current Opponent ELO-31.84
Current ELO Difference63.67
Expected score0.09
History Matches33
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance3.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Troszyn

W
Troszyn2–0Olimpia Elbląg31 Oct · home
Pick: Olimpia Elbląg 45% · missed
L
Swit3–0Troszyn24 Oct · away
Pick: Swit 61% · hit
D
Troszyn1–1Ząbkovia Ząbki18 Oct · home
Pick: Ząbkovia Ząbki 45% · missed
W
Jagiellonia II0–1Troszyn14 Oct · away
Pick: Jagiellonia II 62% · missed
D
Troszyn3–3Weszlo29 Aug · home
Pick: Weszlo 51% · missed

Olimpia Zambrów

L
ŁKS Łódź II3–2Olimpia Zambrów31 Oct · away
Pick: Olimpia Zambrów 45% · missed
D
Olimpia Zambrów1–1Mławianka Mława24 Oct · home
Pick: Olimpia Zambrów 46% · missed
W
Łomża0–2Olimpia Zambrów17 Oct · away
Pick: Łomża 56% · missed
L
Olimpia Zambrów3–4Widzew II30 Aug · home
Pick: Widzew II 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Troszyn and Olimpia Zambrów meet in III Liga - Group 1 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Troszyn win 50.3%, draw 13.0%, Olimpia Zambrów win 36.6%. The pick is Troszyn win. Over 2.5 goals: 77.2%. Both teams to score: 61.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.