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III Liga - Group 1 Poland Group I - 17 2026

ŁKS Łódź II vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki

ŁKS Łódź II Home · Elo 1,392
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki Away · Elo 1,510
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win
ŁKS Łódź II win
28.3%
Draw
16.7%
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki winPick
54.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.6%
No47.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.571.5%
Under 2.528.5%

How much we know

ŁKS Łódź II history62 matches
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki history6 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.9%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki are rated 118 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,510 against 1,392. On rating alone Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki score far more

    1.03 goals a game over 62 matches for ŁKS Łódź II, against 2.33 over 6 for Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki.

  • Defences are close

    ŁKS Łódź II concede 1.74 a game, Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 1.83.

  • Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki games more often go over 2.5 goals

    53% of ŁKS Łódź II matches, against 100% for Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki. The model puts this match at 71% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
ŁKS Łódź II
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1392.2
ELO
1510.3
62
ELO · Matches
6
1392.2
Current Team ELO
1510.3
1510.3
Current Opponent ELO
1392.2
-118.1
Current ELO Difference
118.1
0.34
Expected score
0.66
62
History Matches
6
-0.09
Residual Mean
0.09
43.06
Overperformance
51.97
-0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
2.60
2.40
Goals against per game
1.80
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
6
0.30
PPG
1.67
1.00
Goals for per game
2.33
2.00
Goals against per game
1.83
10.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.33
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.83
0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.69
0.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.92
1.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.38
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
6
0.84
PPG
1.67
19.4%
Win rate
50.0%
25.8%
Draw rate
16.7%
54.8%
Loss rate
33.3%
79.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
53.2%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
35.5%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.38
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
2.00
25.0%
Win rate
66.7%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
53.6%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
39.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
28
History Matches
3
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.03
Goals for per game
2.33
66.1%
Scoring rate
100.0%
54.8%
BTTS rate
100.0%
1.14
Goals for per game
2.33
67.9%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
0.80
Goals for per game
2.60
40.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
62
History Matches
6
1.03
Goals Mean
2.33
0.97
Goals Std
0.94
66.1%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
27.4%
Scored 2+ rate
83.3%
8.1%
Scored 3+ rate
33.3%
1.14
Venue Goals Mean
2.33
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.74
Goals against per game
1.83
82.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.71
Goals against per game
1.33
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2.20
Goals against per game
1.80
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
62
History Matches
6
1.74
Conceded Mean
1.83
1.27
Conceded Std
0.69
51.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
66.7%
27.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.7%
1.71
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
17.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.9%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
60.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
17.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.9%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
17.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
6
0.91
Result entropy
0.92
1.66
Goal Difference Std
1.38
9.26
Stability score
7.94
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
6
9
Lead Matches
3
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.78
26
Trailing Matches
2
11.5%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
50.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
6
0.33
First Half Goals For Mean
1.33
0.82
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
0.72
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.89
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
82.88
Rest days
83.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
32
Normal Rest History Matches
2
0.75
Normal Rest Points Per Match
3.00
26
Long Rest History Matches
2
1.08
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
80.0%
0.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.33
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-1.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.80
7
Competition Season Count
2
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.58
Portability PPG Std
—
1.50
Portability PPG Range
—
46.45
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
6
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-118.1
PPG-0.83
GF-1.30
GA-0.09
PPG-2.00
PPG-1.00
PPG-2.00
PPG-1.37
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches56
Clean-sheet rate17.7%
Failed-to-score rate33.9%
History Matches25
Clean-sheet rate25.0%
Failed-to-score rate32.1%
History Matches56
Goals Mean-1.30
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.34
Scored 2+ rate-0.56
Scored 3+ rate-0.25
Venue Goals Mean-1.19
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.33
Recent 10 Goals Std0.15
History Matches56
Conceded Mean-0.09
Conceded Std0.58
Clean-sheet rate17.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate10.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.38
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.21
History Matches56
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.28
Stability score1.32
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.29
Eligible Matches55
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches24
Non-loss rate-0.38
Trailing Win Rate-0.50
Halftime Coverage Matches55
First Half Goals For Mean-1.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.20
Competition Season Count5
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Rest days-0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches30
Normal Rest Points Per Match-2.25
Long Rest History Matches24
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.42
Current Team ELO-118.1
Current Opponent ELO118.1
Current ELO Difference-236.2
Expected score-0.33
History Matches56
Residual Mean-0.18
Overperformance-8.91
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.32

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

ŁKS Łódź II

W
ŁKS Łódź II3–2Olimpia Zambrów31 Oct · home
Pick: Olimpia Zambrów 45% · missed
L
Polonia Lidzbark Warm.3–0ŁKS Łódź II24 Oct · away
Pick: Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 41% · hit
D
ŁKS Łódź II1–1Olimpia Elbląg17 Oct · home
Pick: Olimpia Elbląg 49% · missed
L
ŁKS Łódź II0–3Ząbkovia Ząbki14 Oct · home
Pick: Ząbkovia Ząbki 43% · hit
W
ŁKS Łódź II4–3Łomża30 Aug · home
Pick: Łomża 42% · missed

Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki

W
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki3–1Mławianka Mława7 Nov · home
Pick: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 51% · hit
W
Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki3–1Lechia T. Mazowiecki24 Oct · home
Pick: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 42% · hit
L
Weszlo3–2Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki18 Oct · away
Pick: Weszlo 66% · hit
D
Polonia Lidzbark Warm.2–2Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki29 Aug · away
Pick: Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 47% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

ŁKS Łódź II and Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki meet in III Liga - Group 1 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: ŁKS Łódź II win 28.3%, draw 16.7%, Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win 54.9%. The pick is Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.5%. Both teams to score: 52.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.