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III Liga - Group 1 Poland Group I - 17 2026

Swit vs Olimpia Elbląg

Swit Home · Elo 1,468
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Olimpia Elbląg Away · Elo 1,453
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Swit win
Swit winPick
43.9%
Draw
23.4%
Olimpia Elbląg win
32.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.9%
No42.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.0%
Under 2.540.0%

How much we know

Swit history58 matches
Olimpia Elbląg history66 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.9%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Swit are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,468 against 1,453. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.43 goals a game over 58 matches for Swit, against 1.36 over 66 for Olimpia Elbląg.

  • Defences are close

    Swit concede 1.71 a game, Olimpia Elbląg 1.73.

  • Swit games more often go over 2.5 goals

    62% of Swit matches, against 53% for Olimpia Elbląg. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Swit
Olimpia Elbląg@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1468.2
ELO
1452.9
58
ELO · Matches
66
1468.2
Current Team ELO
1452.9
1452.9
Current Opponent ELO
1468.2
15.26
Current ELO Difference
-15.26
0.52
Expected score
0.48
58
History Matches
66
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.03
47.53
Overperformance
47.83
-0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
0.60
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.30
1.40
Goals for per game
1.70
1.50
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.35
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.12
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.58
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
66
1.26
PPG
1.12
34.5%
Win rate
28.8%
22.4%
Draw rate
25.8%
43.1%
Loss rate
45.5%
79.3%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
62.1%
Over 2.5 rate
53.0%
39.7%
Over 3.5 rate
34.8%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
31
1.30
PPG
0.90
33.3%
Win rate
19.4%
29.6%
Draw rate
32.3%
37.0%
Loss rate
48.4%
85.2%
Over 1.5 rate
80.6%
70.4%
Over 2.5 rate
54.8%
55.6%
Over 3.5 rate
38.7%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
27
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.43
Goals for per game
1.36
77.6%
Scoring rate
77.3%
58.6%
BTTS rate
60.6%
1.85
Goals for per game
1.13
88.9%
Scoring rate
77.4%
74.1%
BTTS rate
64.5%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
60.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
58
History Matches
66
1.43
Goals Mean
1.36
1.16
Goals Std
1.25
77.6%
Scored 1+ rate
77.3%
39.7%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
19.0%
Scored 3+ rate
13.6%
1.85
Venue Goals Mean
1.13
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.71
Goals against per game
1.73
75.9%
Conceding rate
80.3%
1.59
Goals against per game
1.90
85.2%
Conceding rate
83.9%
0.60
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
58
History Matches
66
1.71
Conceded Mean
1.73
1.41
Conceded Std
1.32
51.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
51.5%
27.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.3%
1.59
Venue Conceded Mean
1.90
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
19.7%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
14.8%
Clean-sheet rate
16.1%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
19.7%
22.4%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
14.8%
Clean-sheet rate
16.1%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
22.6%
24.1%
Clean-sheet rate
19.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
66
0.97
Result entropy
0.97
1.89
Goal Difference Std
1.79
3.05
Stability score
2.95
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
66
18
Lead Matches
18
61.1%
Lead Win Rate
72.2%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.78
19
Trailing Matches
25
26.3%
Non-loss rate
36.0%
10.5%
Trailing Win Rate
8.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.59
0.72
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
0.86
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.96
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
82.83
Rest days
83.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
30
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.27
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.09
24
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.17
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.11
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.60
Current Competition PPG
1.40
0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
5
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.14
Portability PPG Std
0.65
0.39
Portability PPG Range
1.71
77.69
Portability Score
43.52
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
66
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO15.26
PPG0.14
GF0.07
GA-0.02
PPG0.20
PPG0.39
PPG0.20
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate4.4%
Failed-to-score rate0.00
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-8
Goals Mean0.07
Goals Std-0.09
Scored 1+ rate0.3%
Scored 2+ rate6.3%
Scored 3+ rate5.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.72
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.15
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean-0.02
Conceded Std0.09
Clean-sheet rate4.4%
Conceded 2+ rate0.2%
Conceded 3+ rate0.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.31
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.20
History Matches-8
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.10
Stability score0.11
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.04
Eligible Matches-9
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.11
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate-0.10
Trailing Win Rate2.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-9
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.80
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.51
Portability PPG Range-1.31
Portability Score34.16
Rest days-1.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.33
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.18
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.06
Current Team ELO15.26
Current Opponent ELO-15.26
Current ELO Difference30.52
Expected score0.04
History Matches-8
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.30
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Swit

W
Wisła Płock II1–4Swit7 Nov · away
Pick: Swit 41% · hit
L
Ząbkovia Ząbki2–0Swit31 Oct · away
Pick: Swit 46% · missed
W
Swit3–0Troszyn24 Oct · home
Pick: Swit 61% · hit
W
Jagiellonia II1–3Swit18 Oct · away
Pick: Jagiellonia II 39% · missed
W
Swit2–1Warta Sieradz29 Aug · home
Pick: Swit 49% · hit

Olimpia Elbląg

W
Olimpia Elbląg2–0Ząbkovia Ząbki7 Nov · home
Pick: Olimpia Elbląg 54% · hit
L
Troszyn2–0Olimpia Elbląg31 Oct · away
Pick: Olimpia Elbląg 45% · missed
D
Olimpia Elbląg0–0Jagiellonia II24 Oct · home
Pick: Olimpia Elbląg 46% · missed
D
ŁKS Łódź II1–1Olimpia Elbląg17 Oct · away
Pick: Olimpia Elbląg 49% · missed
L
Olimpia Elbląg1–3Wigry Suwałki29 Aug · home
Pick: Wigry Suwałki 38% · hit

About this match

Swit and Olimpia Elbląg meet in III Liga - Group 1 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Swit win 43.9%, draw 23.4%, Olimpia Elbląg win 32.6%. The pick is Swit win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.0%. Both teams to score: 57.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.