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III Liga - Group 1 Poland Group I - 17 2026

Łomża vs Warta Sieradz

Łomża Home · Elo 1,554
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Warta Sieradz Away · Elo 1,598
Stadion Miejski w Lomzy, Lomza Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Warta Sieradz win
Łomża win
35.1%
Draw
23.7%
Warta Sieradz winPick
41.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.8%
No42.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.1%
Under 2.542.9%

How much we know

Łomża history58 matches
Warta Sieradz history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.1%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Warta Sieradz are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Warta Sieradz are rated 44 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,598 against 1,554. On rating alone Warta Sieradz would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.02 goals a game over 58 matches for Łomża, against 1.84 over 61 for Warta Sieradz.

  • Defences are close

    Łomża concede 1.09 a game, Warta Sieradz 1.03.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    59% of Łomża matches, against 61% for Warta Sieradz. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Łomża
Warta Sieradz@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1553.8
ELO
1597.9
58
ELO · Matches
61
1553.8
Current Team ELO
1597.9
1597.9
Current Opponent ELO
1553.8
-44.08
Current ELO Difference
44.08
0.44
Expected score
0.56
58
History Matches
61
0.04
Residual Mean
0.09
53.23
Overperformance
56.80
-0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
2.00
Goals against per game
1.80
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.90
1.60
Goals for per game
1.80
1.50
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.57
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.50
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
2.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.96
Overall performance9 signals
90
58
Matches
61
1.79
PPG
2.03
53.4%
Win rate
60.7%
19.0%
Draw rate
21.3%
27.6%
Loss rate
18.0%
82.8%
Over 1.5 rate
78.7%
58.6%
Over 2.5 rate
60.7%
32.8%
Over 3.5 rate
27.9%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
26
1.83
PPG
1.81
51.7%
Win rate
50.0%
27.6%
Draw rate
30.8%
20.7%
Loss rate
19.2%
86.2%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
62.1%
Over 2.5 rate
46.2%
31.0%
Over 3.5 rate
23.1%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
29
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.02
Goals for per game
1.84
82.8%
Scoring rate
90.2%
48.3%
BTTS rate
55.7%
2.10
Goals for per game
1.54
86.2%
Scoring rate
88.5%
48.3%
BTTS rate
57.7%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
60.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
58
History Matches
61
2.02
Goals Mean
1.84
1.47
Goals Std
1.20
82.8%
Scored 1+ rate
90.2%
63.8%
Scored 2+ rate
52.5%
31.0%
Scored 3+ rate
31.1%
2.10
Venue Goals Mean
1.54
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.09
Goals against per game
1.03
60.3%
Conceding rate
60.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.08
55.2%
Conceding rate
65.4%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.80
80.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
58
History Matches
61
1.09
Conceded Mean
1.03
1.18
Conceded Std
1.13
29.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.2%
13.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.8%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.08
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
39.7%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
9.8%
44.8%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
11.5%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
39.7%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
9.8%
44.8%
Clean-sheet rate
34.6%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
11.5%
39.7%
Clean-sheet rate
39.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
58
History Matches
61
0.92
Result entropy
0.86
1.86
Goal Difference Std
1.73
8.48
Stability score
14.29
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
61
21
Lead Matches
21
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
81.0%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.86
14
Trailing Matches
13
28.6%
Non-loss rate
53.8%
28.6%
Trailing Win Rate
23.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.79
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
1.26
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.13
0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.92
Rest days
83.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
32
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.69
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.15
22
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.91
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.08
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
60.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.32
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.40
Current Competition PPG
1.40
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.20
7
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.78
Portability PPG Std
0.30
1.69
Portability PPG Range
0.74
39.19
Portability Score
62.69
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
58
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-44.08
PPG-0.24
GF0.18
GA0.05
PPG-1.00
PPG0.02
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate0.3%
Failed-to-score rate7.4%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate10.2%
Failed-to-score rate2.3%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean0.18
Goals Std0.26
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate11.3%
Scored 3+ rate0.00
Venue Goals Mean0.56
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.26
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.05
Conceded Std0.05
Clean-sheet rate0.3%
Conceded 2+ rate3.1%
Conceded 3+ rate4.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.08
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.07
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std0.14
Stability score-5.81
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.11
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate4.8%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.25
Trailing Win Rate5.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.80
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.48
Portability PPG Range0.95
Portability Score-23.50
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.67
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.46
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Current Team ELO-44.08
Current Opponent ELO44.08
Current ELO Difference-88.17
Expected score-0.13
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.57
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Łomża

D
Widzew II2–2Łomża25 Oct · away
Pick: Widzew II 46% · missed
L
Łomża0–2Olimpia Zambrów17 Oct · home
Pick: Łomża 56% · missed
L
ŁKS Łódź II4–3Łomża30 Aug · away
Pick: Łomża 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Warta Sieradz

W
Warta Sieradz3–0Lechia T. Mazowiecki6 Nov · home
Pick: Warta Sieradz 44% · hit
W
Weszlo0–1Warta Sieradz31 Oct · away
Pick: Weszlo 42% · missed
D
Warta Sieradz2–2Pelikan Łowicz24 Oct · home
Pick: Warta Sieradz 62% · missed
W
Widzew II0–1Warta Sieradz21 Oct · away
Pick: Widzew II 46% · missed
W
Warta Sieradz2–1Wisła Płock II17 Oct · home
Pick: Warta Sieradz 48% · hit

About this match

Łomża and Warta Sieradz meet in III Liga - Group 1 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion Miejski w Lomzy, Lomza. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Łomża win 35.1%, draw 23.7%, Warta Sieradz win 41.1%. The pick is Warta Sieradz win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.1%. Both teams to score: 57.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.