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III Liga - Group 1 Poland Group I - 17 2026

Weszlo vs Wisła Płock II

Weszlo Home · Elo 1,545
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Wisła Płock II Away · Elo 1,532
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Weszlo win
Weszlo winPick
49.8%
Draw
27.8%
Wisła Płock II win
22.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.5%
No45.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.8%
Under 2.533.2%

How much we know

Weszlo history6 matches
Wisła Płock II history46 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.8%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Weszlo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,545 against 1,532. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Weszlo score far more

    2.67 goals a game over 6 matches for Weszlo, against 1.57 over 46 for Wisła Płock II.

  • Weszlo concede fewer

    Weszlo concede 0.67 a game, Wisła Płock II 1.46.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    67% of Weszlo matches, against 65% for Wisła Płock II. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Weszlo
Wisła Płock II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1545.1
ELO
1532.0
6
ELO · Matches
46
1545.1
Current Team ELO
1532.0
1532.0
Current Opponent ELO
1545.1
13.10
Current ELO Difference
-13.10
0.52
Expected score
0.48
6
History Matches
46
0.41
Residual Mean
0.03
59.43
Overperformance
52.12
0.41
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
1.60
2.80
Goals for per game
1.80
0.40
Goals against per game
1.60
100.0%
Win rate
40.0%
6
Matches
10
2.67
PPG
1.60
2.67
Goals for per game
1.80
0.67
Goals against per game
1.40
83.3%
Win rate
40.0%
2.67
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.37
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.17
0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.41
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.53
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.11
Overall performance9 signals
90
6
Matches
46
2.67
PPG
1.54
83.3%
Win rate
41.3%
16.7%
Draw rate
30.4%
0.0%
Loss rate
28.3%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
82.6%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
65.2%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
30.4%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
Venue performance10 signals
100
4
Matches
24
2.50
PPG
1.50
75.0%
Win rate
41.7%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
91.7%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
70.8%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
29.2%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.24
4
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.67
Goals for per game
1.57
100.0%
Scoring rate
82.6%
50.0%
BTTS rate
76.1%
3.25
Goals for per game
1.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
91.7%
75.0%
BTTS rate
83.3%
2.80
Goals for per game
1.80
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
6
History Matches
46
2.67
Goals Mean
1.57
1.37
Goals Std
1.12
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
82.6%
83.3%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
33.3%
Scored 3+ rate
15.2%
3.25
Venue Goals Mean
1.67
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.67
Goals against per game
1.46
50.0%
Conceding rate
87.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.71
75.0%
Conceding rate
87.5%
0.40
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
6
History Matches
46
0.67
Conceded Mean
1.46
0.75
Conceded Std
1.04
16.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.0%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.2%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.71
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
13.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
8.3%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
13.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.4%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
8.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
13.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
6
History Matches
46
0.41
Result entropy
0.99
1.53
Goal Difference Std
1.35
58.99
Stability score
1.29
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
6
Eligible Matches
45
5
Lead Matches
14
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
64.3%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.71
0
Trailing Matches
12
—
Non-loss rate
58.3%
—
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
6
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
1.33
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
1.33
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.93
0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.04
Rest days
83.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
3
Normal Rest History Matches
25
3.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.52
2
Long Rest History Matches
18
3.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.56
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
1.60
100.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.75
5
Current Competition Matches
5
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.60
2.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.20
2
Competition Season Count
4
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.20
—
Portability PPG Range
0.45
—
Portability Score
71.37
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
6
Clean History Matches
46
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreNon-loss rateTrailing Win RatePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO13.10
PPG1.12
GF1.10
GA-0.79
PPG1.40
PPG1.00
PPG1.40
PPG1.07
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-40
Clean-sheet rate37.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-20
Clean-sheet rate12.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-40
Goals Mean1.10
Goals Std0.26
Scored 1+ rate17.4%
Scored 2+ rate33.3%
Scored 3+ rate18.1%
Venue Goals Mean1.58
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std0.21
History Matches-40
Conceded Mean-0.79
Conceded Std-0.29
Clean-sheet rate37.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.20
Conceded 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Conceded Mean-0.71
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.73
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.17
History Matches-40
Result entropy-0.58
Goal Difference Std0.17
Stability score57.69
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.41
Eligible Matches-39
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate35.7%
Lead Points Retention0.29
Trailing Matches-12
Halftime Coverage Matches-39
First Half Goals For Mean0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.49
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.20
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-22
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.48
Long Rest History Matches-16
Long Rest Points Per Match1.44
Current Team ELO13.10
Current Opponent ELO-13.10
Current ELO Difference26.19
Expected score0.04
History Matches-40
Residual Mean0.38
Overperformance7.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.37

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Weszlo

L
Weszlo0–1Warta Sieradz31 Oct · home
Pick: Weszlo 42% · missed
L
Wigry Suwałki4–1Weszlo24 Oct · away
Pick: Weszlo 38% · missed
W
Weszlo3–2Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki18 Oct · home
Pick: Weszlo 66% · hit
D
Troszyn3–3Weszlo29 Aug · away
Pick: Weszlo 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Wisła Płock II

L
Wisła Płock II1–4Swit7 Nov · home
Pick: Swit 41% · hit
W
Pelikan Łowicz1–2Wisła Płock II31 Oct · away
Pick: Wisła Płock II 40% · hit
D
Wisła Płock II2–2Ząbkovia Ząbki24 Oct · home
Pick: Wisła Płock II 55% · missed
L
Warta Sieradz2–1Wisła Płock II17 Oct · away
Pick: Warta Sieradz 48% · hit
L
Wisła Płock II0–2Puszcza Niepołomice1 Sep · home
Pick: Puszcza Niepołomice 49% · hit

About this match

Weszlo and Wisła Płock II meet in III Liga - Group 1 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Weszlo win 49.8%, draw 27.8%, Wisła Płock II win 22.4%. The pick is Weszlo win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.8%. Both teams to score: 54.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.