ScoreProb
Primera A Colombia Round 19 2026

Llaneros vs Chico

Llaneros Home · Elo 1,523
Thu 12 Nov
UTC
Not started
Chico Away · Elo 1,423
Estadio Bello Horizonte, Villavicencio Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Llaneros win
Llaneros winPick
61.0%
Draw
22.2%
Chico win
16.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.2%
No54.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.8%
Under 2.550.2%

How much we know

Llaneros history50 matches
Chico history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    6 Nov · 08:47 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    12 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,392 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,699
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,277
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,777
60–69% Won 63.7% · said 64.4% · n 1,884
70–79% Won 76.4% · said 73.9% · n 589
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.4% · n 166
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (61.0%). Picks in that band won 63.7% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 1,884 matches.

Why Llaneros are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Llaneros are rated 101 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,523 against 1,423. On rating alone Llaneros would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Llaneros score more

    1.10 goals a game over 50 matches for Llaneros, against 0.84 over 55 for Chico.

  • Llaneros concede fewer

    Llaneros concede 1.14 a game, Chico 1.47.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    44% of Llaneros matches, against 40% for Chico. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Llaneros
Chico@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1523.5
ELO
1422.7
50
ELO · Matches
55
1523.5
Current Team ELO
1422.7
1422.7
Current Opponent ELO
1523.5
100.8
Current ELO Difference
-100.8
0.64
Expected score
0.36
50
History Matches
55
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.07
51.18
Overperformance
44.92
0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.20
1.40
Goals for per game
0.40
0.60
Goals against per game
2.60
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.10
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.70
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.41
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.15
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.03
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
55
1.38
PPG
0.95
38.0%
Win rate
21.8%
24.0%
Draw rate
29.1%
38.0%
Loss rate
49.1%
66.0%
Over 1.5 rate
65.5%
44.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
18.0%
Over 3.5 rate
21.8%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
28
1.70
PPG
0.43
47.8%
Win rate
7.1%
26.1%
Draw rate
21.4%
26.1%
Loss rate
71.4%
73.9%
Over 1.5 rate
78.6%
47.8%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
21.7%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
23
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.10
Goals for per game
0.84
66.0%
Scoring rate
52.7%
44.0%
BTTS rate
32.7%
1.39
Goals for per game
0.54
73.9%
Scoring rate
39.3%
47.8%
BTTS rate
32.1%
1.12
Goals for per game
0.68
82.4%
Scoring rate
36.8%
58.8%
BTTS rate
15.8%
50
History Matches
55
1.10
Goals Mean
0.84
0.98
Goals Std
1.06
66.0%
Scored 1+ rate
52.7%
34.0%
Scored 2+ rate
20.0%
10.0%
Scored 3+ rate
5.5%
1.39
Venue Goals Mean
0.54
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.14
Goals against per game
1.47
74.0%
Conceding rate
69.1%
1.04
Goals against per game
2.14
73.9%
Conceding rate
85.7%
1.06
Goals against per game
1.79
70.6%
Conceding rate
78.9%
50
History Matches
55
1.14
Conceded Mean
1.47
0.94
Conceded Std
1.46
28.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.8%
12.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
1.04
Venue Conceded Mean
2.14
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.9%
34.0%
Failed-to-score rate
47.3%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
60.7%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.1%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
63.2%
26.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.9%
34.0%
Failed-to-score rate
47.3%
26.1%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
60.7%
26.0%
Clean-sheet rate
30.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
55
0.98
Result entropy
0.95
1.52
Goal Difference Std
2.00
1.89
Stability score
5.28
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
55
14
Lead Matches
8
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
62.5%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.71
13
Trailing Matches
21
7.7%
Non-loss rate
19.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.33
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
81.00
Rest days
83.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
21
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.43
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.78
27
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.04
Competition & season17 signals
170
17
Matches
19
1.41
PPG
0.74
29.4%
Win rate
21.1%
52.9%
Draw rate
10.5%
17.6%
Loss rate
68.4%
76.5%
Over 1.5 rate
63.2%
29.4%
Over 2.5 rate
42.1%
17.6%
Over 3.5 rate
21.1%
1.21
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.57
17
Current Competition Matches
19
1.41
Current Competition PPG
0.74
0.06
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.11
5
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.42
Portability PPG Std
0.18
0.95
Portability PPG Range
0.51
54.05
Portability Score
73.29
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO100.8
PPG0.43
GF0.26
GA-0.33
PPG0.67
PPG1.27
PPG2.00
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate11.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.35
History Matches-5
Goals Mean0.26
Goals Std-0.07
Scored 1+ rate13.3%
Scored 2+ rate14.0%
Scored 3+ rate4.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.86
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.30
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean-0.33
Conceded Std-0.52
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate-0.14
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.28
History Matches-5
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.48
Stability score-3.39
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.41
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate16.1%
Lead Points Retention0.15
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.16
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.24
Portability PPG Range0.44
Portability Score-19.23
Rest days-2.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.65
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.18
Current Team ELO100.8
Current Opponent ELO-100.8
Current ELO Difference201.6
Expected score0.28
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Llaneros

W
Llaneros3–2Junior31 Oct · home
Pick: Llaneros 38% · hit
L
Jaguares1–0Llaneros26 Oct · away
Pick: Jaguares 44% · hit
L
Llaneros0–3Deportivo Cali21 Oct · home
Pick: Llaneros 39% · missed
W
Llaneros1–0Santa Fe18 Oct · home
Pick: Santa Fe 40% · missed
L
Internacional de Bogota4–1Llaneros15 Oct · away
Pick: Internacional de Bogota 36% · hit

Chico

D
Chico1–1Junior28 Oct · home
Pick: Junior 47% · missed
W
Chico1–0Bucaramanga23 Oct · home
Pick: Bucaramanga 49% · missed
L
Deportivo Pereira2–0Chico20 Oct · away
Pick: Deportivo Pereira 56% · hit
L
Chico1–4Atletico Nacional17 Oct · home
Pick: Atletico Nacional 70% · hit
D
Águilas Doradas2–2Chico30 Aug · away
Pick: Águilas Doradas 59% · missed

About this match

Llaneros and Chico meet in Primera A on Thursday 12 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Bello Horizonte, Villavicencio. ScoreProb published its prediction on 6 Nov, 08:47 UTC: Llaneros win 61.0%, draw 22.2%, Chico win 16.9%. The pick is Llaneros win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.8%. Both teams to score: 45.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.