Peru vs Bolivia
Match result probability Model pick: Peru win
Peru winPick
51.7%
Draw
30.5%
Bolivia win
17.8%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes49.4%
No50.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.549.6%
Under 2.550.4%
How much we know
Peru history11 matches
Bolivia history15 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Peru
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 16 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 00:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 01:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.7%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.
Why Peru are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Peru are rated 52 Elo points higher
Elo 1,497 against 1,445. On rating alone Peru would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.
-
Peru score far more
1.09 goals a game over 11 matches for Peru, against 0.60 over 15 for Bolivia.
-
Peru concede fewer
Peru concede 1.18 a game, Bolivia 1.80.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
45% of Peru matches, against 47% for Bolivia. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 11 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1497.2
ELO
1444.9
11
ELO · Matches
15
1497.2
Current Team ELO
1444.9
1444.9
Current Opponent ELO
1497.2
52.31
Current ELO Difference
-52.31
0.57
Expected score
0.43
11
History Matches
15
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.18
49.30
Overperformance
42.43
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.27
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.60
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
1.60
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
0.40
0.90
Goals for per game
0.50
1.20
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
10.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.50
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.20
0.98
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.25
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
1.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.00
Overall performance9 signals 90
11
Matches
15
1.18
PPG
0.73
27.3%
Win rate
20.0%
36.4%
Draw rate
13.3%
36.4%
Loss rate
66.7%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
46.7%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.31
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
Venue performance10 signals 100
5
Matches
7
1.60
PPG
0.00
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.64
5
History Matches
7
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.09
Goals for per game
0.60
63.6%
Scoring rate
40.0%
54.5%
BTTS rate
20.0%
1.60
Goals for per game
0.29
80.0%
Scoring rate
28.6%
60.0%
BTTS rate
28.6%
1.25
Goals for per game
0.80
75.0%
Scoring rate
40.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
20.0%
11
History Matches
15
1.09
Goals Mean
0.60
1.00
Goals Std
0.88
63.6%
Scored 1+ rate
40.0%
36.4%
Scored 2+ rate
13.3%
9.1%
Scored 3+ rate
6.7%
1.60
Venue Goals Mean
0.29
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.18
Goals against per game
1.80
72.7%
Conceding rate
73.3%
1.20
Goals against per game
2.43
60.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
11
History Matches
15
1.18
Conceded Mean
1.80
0.94
Conceded Std
1.38
36.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
60.0%
9.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
33.3%
1.20
Venue Conceded Mean
2.43
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
71.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
71.4%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
11
History Matches
15
0.99
Result entropy
0.78
1.31
Goal Difference Std
2.01
0.78
Stability score
21.64
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
11
Eligible Matches
15
2
Lead Matches
2
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.50
Lead Points Retention
1.00
5
Trailing Matches
7
40.0%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
11
Halftime Coverage Matches
15
0.36
First Half Goals For Mean
0.27
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.33
0.55
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
158.0
Rest days
156.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
5
Normal Rest History Matches
6
0.40
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.67
5
Long Rest History Matches
8
1.60
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.88
Competition & season17 signals 170
4
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.80
25.0%
Win rate
20.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.64
4
Current Competition Matches
5
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.80
-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.20
3
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.14
Portability PPG Std
0.16
0.33
Portability PPG Range
0.40
77.93
Portability Score
75.38
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
11
Clean History Matches
15
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO52.31
PPG0.45
GF0.49
GA-0.62
PPG0.20
PPG1.60
PPG0.80
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate0.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate40.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.51
History Matches-4
Goals Mean0.49
Goals Std0.12
Scored 1+ rate23.6%
Scored 2+ rate23.0%
Scored 3+ rate2.4%
Venue Goals Mean1.31
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.09
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean-0.62
Conceded Std-0.44
Clean-sheet rate0.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.24
Conceded 3+ rate-0.24
Venue Conceded Mean-1.23
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.27
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.21
Goal Difference Std-0.70
Stability score-20.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.82
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate-0.50
Lead Points Retention-0.50
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate25.7%
Trailing Win Rate20.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.30
Second Half Goals For Mean0.39
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.32
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.45
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range-0.07
Portability Score2.54
Rest days1.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.27
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.73
Current Team ELO52.31
Current Opponent ELO-52.31
Current ELO Difference104.6
Expected score0.15
History Matches-4
Residual Mean0.16
Overperformance6.87
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.20
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
About this match
Peru and Bolivia meet in Friendlies on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 01:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Monumental, Lima. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Peru win 51.7%, draw 30.5%, Bolivia win 17.8%. The pick is Peru win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.6%. Both teams to score: 49.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.