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Friendlies World Friendly International 2026

Ecuador vs Costa Rica

Ecuador Home · Elo 1,539
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Costa Rica Away · Elo 1,505
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ecuador win
Ecuador winPick
65.8%
Draw
16.4%
Costa Rica win
17.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.0%
No51.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.0%
Under 2.543.0%

How much we know

Ecuador history15 matches
Costa Rica history15 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 15 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 00:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (65.8%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.

Why Ecuador are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ecuador are rated 34 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,539 against 1,505. On rating alone Ecuador would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Costa Rica score far more

    1.00 goals a game over 15 matches for Ecuador, against 2.00 over 15 for Costa Rica.

  • Ecuador concede fewer

    Ecuador concede 0.67 a game, Costa Rica 1.60.

  • Costa Rica games more often go over 2.5 goals

    27% of Ecuador matches, against 67% for Costa Rica. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 2 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ecuador
Costa Rica@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1538.9
ELO
1505.1
15
ELO · Matches
15
1538.9
Current Team ELO
1505.1
1505.1
Current Opponent ELO
1538.9
33.84
Current ELO Difference
-33.84
0.55
Expected score
0.45
15
History Matches
15
0.11
Residual Mean
0.01
54.81
Overperformance
50.43
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.40
1.00
Goals for per game
0.60
0.80
Goals against per game
2.60
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
0.80
1.10
Goals for per game
1.10
0.70
Goals against per game
1.90
40.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.37
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.51
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.04
Overall performance9 signals
90
15
Matches
15
1.53
PPG
1.40
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
53.3%
Draw rate
40.0%
13.3%
Loss rate
26.7%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
73.3%
26.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
53.3%
1.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.85
Venue performance10 signals
100
6
Matches
8
2.67
PPG
0.88
83.3%
Win rate
12.5%
16.7%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
37.5%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
62.5%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.80
6
History Matches
8
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
60.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
46.7%
BTTS rate
53.3%
1.83
Goals for per game
1.38
83.3%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
37.5%
1.75
Goals for per game
0.75
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
15
History Matches
15
1.00
Goals Mean
2.00
0.97
Goals Std
2.25
60.0%
Scored 1+ rate
60.0%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
46.7%
6.7%
Scored 3+ rate
33.3%
1.83
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.67
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Conceding rate
73.3%
0.50
Goals against per game
1.25
50.0%
Conceding rate
62.5%
0.75
Goals against per game
3.25
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
15
History Matches
15
0.67
Conceded Mean
1.60
0.60
Conceded Std
1.45
6.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
33.3%
0.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.25
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
15
History Matches
15
0.88
Result entropy
0.99
1.14
Goal Difference Std
2.85
11.70
Stability score
1.22
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
15
Eligible Matches
15
4
Lead Matches
6
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.89
1
Trailing Matches
4
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
15
Halftime Coverage Matches
15
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
1.07
0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
0.53
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.93
0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
136.0
Rest days
156.2
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
7
Normal Rest History Matches
7
1.43
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.71
7
Long Rest History Matches
7
1.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.86
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
2.00
PPG
0.25
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
1.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.25
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.50
4
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.36
Portability PPG Std
0.59
1.00
Portability PPG Range
1.18
58.08
Portability Score
45.90
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
15
Clean History Matches
15
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO33.84
PPG0.13
GF-1.00
GA-0.93
PPG1.75
PPG1.79
PPG1.00
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate13.3%
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate12.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.33
History Matches0
Goals Mean-1.00
Goals Std-1.28
Scored 1+ rate0.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate-0.27
Venue Goals Mean0.46
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.33
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.93
Conceded Std-0.86
Clean-sheet rate13.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.33
Conceded 3+ rate-0.33
Venue Conceded Mean-0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.87
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.10
Goal Difference Std-1.71
Stability score10.47
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.68
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.33
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.60
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.23
Portability PPG Range-0.18
Portability Score12.18
Rest days-20.21
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.29
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.57
Current Team ELO33.84
Current Opponent ELO-33.84
Current ELO Difference67.68
Expected score0.10
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.10
Overperformance4.39
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.30

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ecuador

D
Ecuador1–1Panama5 Oct · home
Pick: Panama 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Costa Rica

W
Costa Rica2–0Haiti5 Oct · home
Pick: Haiti 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Ecuador and Costa Rica meet in Friendlies on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 00:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Ecuador win 65.8%, draw 16.4%, Costa Rica win 17.8%. The pick is Ecuador win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.0%. Both teams to score: 49.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.