Colombia vs Chile
Match result probability Model pick: Colombia win
Colombia winPick
60.7%
Draw
23.9%
Chile win
15.4%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes50.3%
No49.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.552.7%
Under 2.547.3%
How much we know
Colombia history16 matches
Chile history10 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Colombia
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 15 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 23:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 00:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.7%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.
Why Colombia are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Colombia are rated 57 Elo points higher
Elo 1,558 against 1,502. On rating alone Colombia would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.
-
Colombia score more
1.50 goals a game over 16 matches for Colombia, against 1.20 over 10 for Chile.
-
Colombia concede fewer
Colombia concede 0.69 a game, Chile 1.60.
-
Chile games more often go over 2.5 goals
50% of Colombia matches, against 60% for Chile. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 8 Jul 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Chile@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1558.4
ELO
1501.7
16
ELO · Matches
10
1558.4
Current Team ELO
1501.7
1501.7
Current Opponent ELO
1558.4
56.75
Current ELO Difference
-56.75
0.58
Expected score
0.42
16
History Matches
10
0.21
Residual Mean
-0.01
59.17
Overperformance
49.75
0.31
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.80
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
0.20
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.30
1.60
Goals for per game
1.20
0.60
Goals against per game
1.60
70.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.25
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.34
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.80
Overall performance9 signals 90
16
Matches
10
1.88
PPG
1.30
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
37.5%
Draw rate
10.0%
12.5%
Loss rate
50.0%
62.5%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
31.3%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
Venue performance10 signals 100
10
Matches
6
2.10
PPG
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
33.3%
30.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
10.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
30.0%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
10
History Matches
6
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.50
Goals for per game
1.20
75.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
43.8%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.00
80.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
40.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
100.0%
16
History Matches
10
1.50
Goals Mean
1.20
1.22
Goals Std
1.25
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
60.0%
43.8%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
25.0%
Scored 3+ rate
10.0%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
0.69
Goals against per game
1.60
43.8%
Conceding rate
80.0%
0.70
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Conceding rate
83.3%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.50
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
16
History Matches
10
0.69
Conceded Mean
1.60
0.92
Conceded Std
1.20
18.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
6.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
0.70
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
56.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
56.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
56.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
16
History Matches
10
0.89
Result entropy
0.86
1.47
Goal Difference Std
1.80
11.31
Stability score
14.13
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
16
Eligible Matches
10
8
Lead Matches
1
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
1.00
1
Trailing Matches
6
0.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
33.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
16
Halftime Coverage Matches
10
0.69
First Half Goals For Mean
0.20
0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.38
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
129.2
Rest days
157.3
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
8
Normal Rest History Matches
3
2.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
6
Long Rest History Matches
5
2.17
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.20
Competition & season17 signals 170
3
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
1.50
66.7%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
3
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
4
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.67
Portability PPG Std
—
1.75
Portability PPG Range
—
42.86
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
16
Clean History Matches
10
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO56.75
PPG0.58
GF0.30
GA-0.91
PPG0.50
PPG1.10
PPG0.40
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate36.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate43.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.30
Goals Std-0.02
Scored 1+ rate15.0%
Scored 2+ rate3.8%
Scored 3+ rate15.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.14
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.91
Conceded Std-0.28
Clean-sheet rate36.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.31
Conceded 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Conceded Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.28
History Matches6
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.33
Stability score-2.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.46
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate-0.25
Lead Points Retention-0.17
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate-0.33
Trailing Win Rate-0.33
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.49
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.43
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.67
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Rest days-28.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.00
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.97
Current Team ELO56.75
Current Opponent ELO-56.75
Current ELO Difference113.5
Expected score0.16
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.21
Overperformance9.43
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.32
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
About this match
Colombia and Chile meet in Friendlies on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 00:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Colombia win 60.7%, draw 23.9%, Chile win 15.4%. The pick is Colombia win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.7%. Both teams to score: 50.3%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.