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III Liga - Group 2 Poland Group II - 17 2026

Polonia Środa vs Kotwica Kórnik

Polonia Środa Home · Elo 1,603
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kotwica Kórnik Away · Elo 1,431
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Polonia Środa win
Polonia Środa winPick
79.5%
Draw
12.5%
Kotwica Kórnik win
8.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.1%
No44.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.574.4%
Under 2.525.6%

How much we know

Polonia Środa history65 matches
Kotwica Kórnik history27 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (79.5%). Picks in that band won 76.5% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 646 matches.

Why Polonia Środa are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Polonia Środa are rated 171 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,603 against 1,431. On rating alone Polonia Środa would be expected to take 73% of the points on offer.

  • Polonia Środa score more

    2.05 goals a game over 65 matches for Polonia Środa, against 1.37 over 27 for Kotwica Kórnik.

  • Polonia Środa concede fewer

    Polonia Środa concede 1.37 a game, Kotwica Kórnik 1.89.

  • Polonia Środa games more often go over 2.5 goals

    71% of Polonia Środa matches, against 56% for Kotwica Kórnik. The model puts this match at 74% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Polonia Środa
Kotwica Kórnik@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1602.5
ELO
1431.4
65
ELO · Matches
27
1602.5
Current Team ELO
1431.4
1431.4
Current Opponent ELO
1602.5
171.1
Current ELO Difference
-171.1
0.73
Expected score
0.27
65
History Matches
27
0.07
Residual Mean
-0.12
55.07
Overperformance
43.31
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.24
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
0.20
3.00
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
2.40
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
0.50
2.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
2.30
70.0%
Win rate
10.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.41
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.74
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.42
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.89
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.30
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
27
1.85
PPG
0.93
55.4%
Win rate
22.2%
18.5%
Draw rate
25.9%
26.2%
Loss rate
51.9%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
70.8%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
46.2%
Over 3.5 rate
40.7%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.93
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
12
1.97
PPG
0.42
62.1%
Win rate
8.3%
10.3%
Draw rate
16.7%
27.6%
Loss rate
75.0%
82.8%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
75.9%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
48.3%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
2.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.11
29
History Matches
12
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.05
Goals for per game
1.37
84.6%
Scoring rate
70.4%
63.1%
BTTS rate
55.6%
2.17
Goals for per game
0.50
82.8%
Scoring rate
41.7%
58.6%
BTTS rate
33.3%
3.00
Goals for per game
0.80
100.0%
Scoring rate
40.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
65
History Matches
27
2.05
Goals Mean
1.37
1.44
Goals Std
1.31
84.6%
Scored 1+ rate
70.4%
60.0%
Scored 2+ rate
44.4%
36.9%
Scored 3+ rate
11.1%
2.17
Venue Goals Mean
0.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.37
Goals against per game
1.89
72.3%
Conceding rate
85.2%
1.45
Goals against per game
1.92
69.0%
Conceding rate
91.7%
0.80
Goals against per game
2.40
60.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
65
History Matches
27
1.37
Conceded Mean
1.89
1.26
Conceded Std
1.31
38.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
63.0%
16.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.9%
1.45
Venue Conceded Mean
1.92
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.7%
Clean-sheet rate
14.8%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
8.3%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
58.3%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
27.7%
Clean-sheet rate
14.8%
15.4%
Failed-to-score rate
29.6%
31.0%
Clean-sheet rate
8.3%
17.2%
Failed-to-score rate
58.3%
27.7%
Clean-sheet rate
14.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
27
0.90
Result entropy
0.93
2.01
Goal Difference Std
1.93
9.89
Stability score
6.72
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
25
23
Lead Matches
6
91.3%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.78
20
Trailing Matches
12
40.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
25
0.81
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.04
1.22
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.00
Rest days
84.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
6
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
36
Normal Rest History Matches
14
1.72
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.29
22
Long Rest History Matches
10
2.05
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.70
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
0.20
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
80.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
0.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
5
Current Competition Matches
5
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.20
2.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.60
6
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.71
Portability PPG Std
0.43
2.00
Portability PPG Range
1.05
41.17
Portability Score
53.83
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
27
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO171.1
PPG0.92
GF0.68
GA-0.52
PPG2.80
PPG1.55
PPG2.80
PPG1.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches38
Clean-sheet rate12.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches17
Clean-sheet rate22.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.41
History Matches38
Goals Mean0.68
Goals Std0.13
Scored 1+ rate14.2%
Scored 2+ rate15.6%
Scored 3+ rate25.8%
Venue Goals Mean1.67
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.33
History Matches38
Conceded Mean-0.52
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate12.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.25
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.47
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.55
History Matches38
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.08
Stability score3.17
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.41
Eligible Matches38
Lead Matches17
Lead Win Rate24.6%
Lead Points Retention0.15
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate6.7%
Trailing Win Rate25.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches38
First Half Goals For Mean0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.34
Second Half Goals For Mean0.54
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.80
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.29
Portability PPG Range0.95
Portability Score-12.66
Rest days-0.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match1.67
Normal Rest History Matches22
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.44
Long Rest History Matches12
Long Rest Points Per Match1.35
Current Team ELO171.1
Current Opponent ELO-171.1
Current ELO Difference342.2
Expected score0.46
History Matches38
Residual Mean0.18
Overperformance11.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.39

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Polonia Środa

W
Polonia Środa5–2Luzino31 Oct · home
Pick: Polonia Środa 54% · hit
W
Polonia Środa3–1Śląsk Wrocław II28 Oct · home
Pick: Polonia Środa 40% · hit
D
Kalisz0–0Polonia Środa24 Oct · away
Pick: Polonia Środa 52% · missed
W
Lech Poznań II2–3Polonia Środa18 Oct · away
Pick: Polonia Środa 51% · hit
W
Polonia Środa3–2Sandecja Nowy Sącz1 Sep · home
Pick: Polonia Środa 38% · hit

Kotwica Kórnik

L
Kotwica Kórnik1–4Lech Poznań II7 Nov · home
Pick: Lech Poznań II 53% · hit
L
Kluczevia Stargard1–0Kotwica Kórnik31 Oct · away
Pick: Kluczevia Stargard 66% · hit
L
Kotwica Kórnik0–2Wda Świecie24 Oct · home
Pick: Wda Świecie 58% · hit
L
Elana Toruń3–1Kotwica Kórnik17 Oct · away
Pick: Elana Toruń 65% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Polonia Środa and Kotwica Kórnik meet in III Liga - Group 2 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Polonia Środa win 79.5%, draw 12.5%, Kotwica Kórnik win 8.0%. The pick is Polonia Środa win. Over 2.5 goals: 74.4%. Both teams to score: 55.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.