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Central Youth League Poland Round 15 2026

Polonia Warszawa U19 vs Korona Kielce U19

Polonia Warszawa U19 Home · Elo 1,529
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Korona Kielce U19 Away · Elo 1,493
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Polonia Warszawa U19 win
Polonia Warszawa U19 winPick
53.5%
Draw
25.0%
Korona Kielce U19 win
21.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.6%
No41.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.4%
Under 2.535.6%

How much we know

Polonia Warszawa U19 history47 matches
Korona Kielce U19 history3 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.5%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Polonia Warszawa U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Polonia Warszawa U19 are rated 35 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,529 against 1,493. On rating alone Polonia Warszawa U19 would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Polonia Warszawa U19 score more

    1.74 goals a game over 47 matches for Polonia Warszawa U19, against 1.33 over 3 for Korona Kielce U19.

  • Polonia Warszawa U19 concede fewer

    Polonia Warszawa U19 concede 1.45 a game, Korona Kielce U19 1.67.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    62% of Polonia Warszawa U19 matches, against 67% for Korona Kielce U19. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Polonia Warszawa U19
Korona Kielce U19@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1528.6
ELO
1493.4
47
ELO · Matches
3
1528.6
Current Team ELO
1493.4
1493.4
Current Opponent ELO
1528.6
35.12
Current ELO Difference
-35.12
0.55
Expected score
0.45
47
History Matches
3
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.08
51.95
Overperformance
48.92
-0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
3
0.80
PPG
0.67
1.40
Goals for per game
1.33
1.80
Goals against per game
1.67
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
3
0.80
PPG
0.67
1.60
Goals for per game
1.33
1.90
Goals against per game
1.67
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.33
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.47
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.67
1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.47
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
1.27
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.47
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
3
1.57
PPG
0.67
46.8%
Win rate
0.0%
17.0%
Draw rate
66.7%
36.2%
Loss rate
33.3%
85.1%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
61.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
36.2%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
1
1.74
PPG
1.00
52.2%
Win rate
0.0%
17.4%
Draw rate
100.0%
30.4%
Loss rate
0.0%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
60.9%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
39.1%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
23
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.74
Goals for per game
1.33
80.9%
Scoring rate
100.0%
57.4%
BTTS rate
100.0%
1.91
Goals for per game
2.00
82.6%
Scoring rate
100.0%
52.2%
BTTS rate
100.0%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.33
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
100.0%
47
History Matches
3
1.74
Goals Mean
1.33
1.33
Goals Std
0.47
80.9%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
57.4%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
21.3%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.91
Venue Goals Mean
2.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.45
Goals against per game
1.67
70.2%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.22
Goals against per game
2.00
60.9%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
47
History Matches
3
1.45
Conceded Mean
1.67
1.29
Conceded Std
0.47
40.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
66.7%
27.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
1.22
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
19.1%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
19.1%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
39.1%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
29.8%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
3
0.93
Result entropy
0.58
1.88
Goal Difference Std
0.47
6.74
Stability score
42.06
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
38
Eligible Matches
1
12
Lead Matches
0
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.81
Lead Points Retention
—
9
Trailing Matches
0
22.2%
Non-loss rate
—
22.2%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals
50
38
Halftime Coverage Matches
1
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
0.97
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
83.96
Rest days
83.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
23
Normal Rest History Matches
1
1.74
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
23
Long Rest History Matches
1
1.35
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.33
PPG
0.67
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
66.7%
66.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.33
Current Competition PPG
0.67
-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.33
4
Competition Season Count
1
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.64
Portability PPG Std
—
1.37
Portability PPG Range
—
43.77
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
3
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RatePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO35.12
PPG0.91
GF0.41
GA-0.22
PPG-0.33
PPG0.74
PPG0.13
PPG0.13
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches44
Clean-sheet rate29.8%
Failed-to-score rate19.1%
History Matches22
Clean-sheet rate39.1%
Failed-to-score rate17.4%
History Matches44
Goals Mean0.41
Goals Std0.86
Scored 1+ rate-0.19
Scored 2+ rate24.1%
Scored 3+ rate21.3%
Venue Goals Mean-0.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.27
Recent 10 Goals Std0.55
History Matches44
Conceded Mean-0.22
Conceded Std0.81
Clean-sheet rate29.8%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.26
Conceded 3+ rate27.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.23
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.75
History Matches44
Result entropy0.35
Goal Difference Std1.41
Stability score-35.32
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.29
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.80
Eligible Matches37
Lead Matches12
Trailing Matches9
Halftime Coverage Matches37
First Half Goals For Mean-0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.37
Second Half Goals For Mean0.97
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.33
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days-0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches22
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.74
Long Rest History Matches22
Long Rest Points Per Match0.35
Current Team ELO35.12
Current Opponent ELO-35.12
Current ELO Difference70.24
Expected score0.10
History Matches44
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance3.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Polonia Warszawa U19

W
Polonia Warszawa U192–0Jagiellonia U1930 Oct · home
Pick: Polonia Warszawa U19 47% · hit
L
Arka Gdynia U191–0Polonia Warszawa U1925 Oct · away
Pick: Arka Gdynia U19 46% · hit
L
Polonia Warszawa U192–3Raków Częstochowa U1918 Oct · home
Pick: Polonia Warszawa U19 50% · missed
D
Wisła Kraków U193–3Polonia Warszawa U197 Oct · away
Pick: Wisła Kraków U19 46% · missed
W
Polonia Warszawa U193–2Legia Warszawa U194 Oct · home
Pick: Legia Warszawa U19 53% · missed

Korona Kielce U19

D
Stal Rzeszów U190–0Korona Kielce U1930 Oct · away
Pick: Stal Rzeszów U19 60% · missed
L
Korona Kielce U191–2Górnik Zabrze U1925 Oct · home
Pick: Górnik Zabrze U19 46% · hit
D
Talent Warszawa U190–0Korona Kielce U1918 Oct · away
Pick: Talent Warszawa U19 54% · missed
L
Śląsk Wrocław U191–0Korona Kielce U1929 Aug · away
Pick: Śląsk Wrocław U19 56% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Polonia Warszawa U19 and Korona Kielce U19 meet in Central Youth League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Polonia Warszawa U19 win 53.5%, draw 25.0%, Korona Kielce U19 win 21.5%. The pick is Polonia Warszawa U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.4%. Both teams to score: 58.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.