Legia Warszawa U19 vs Arka Gdynia U19
Match result probability Model pick: Legia Warszawa U19 win
Legia Warszawa U19 winPick
74.2%
Draw
12.2%
Arka Gdynia U19 win
13.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes62.8%
No37.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.576.4%
Under 2.523.6%
How much we know
Legia Warszawa U19 history54 matches
Arka Gdynia U19 history16 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Legia Warszawa U19
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 10:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 11:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (74.2%). Picks in that band won 76.5% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 646 matches.
Why Legia Warszawa U19 are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Legia Warszawa U19 are rated 164 Elo points higher
Elo 1,663 against 1,499. On rating alone Legia Warszawa U19 would be expected to take 72% of the points on offer.
-
Legia Warszawa U19 score far more
2.83 goals a game over 54 matches for Legia Warszawa U19, against 1.81 over 16 for Arka Gdynia U19.
-
Legia Warszawa U19 concede fewer
Legia Warszawa U19 concede 1.44 a game, Arka Gdynia U19 1.69.
-
Legia Warszawa U19 games more often go over 2.5 goals
85% of Legia Warszawa U19 matches, against 69% for Arka Gdynia U19. The model puts this match at 76% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Arka Gdynia U19@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1662.5
ELO
1498.8
54
ELO · Matches
16
1662.5
Current Team ELO
1498.8
1498.8
Current Opponent ELO
1662.5
163.8
Current ELO Difference
-163.8
0.72
Expected score
0.28
54
History Matches
16
0.15
Residual Mean
0.00
60.80
Overperformance
49.83
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.00
3.20
Goals for per game
0.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
2.50
PPG
1.50
2.90
Goals for per game
1.70
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.45
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.80
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.10
Overall performance9 signals 90
54
Matches
16
2.22
PPG
1.38
70.4%
Win rate
37.5%
11.1%
Draw rate
25.0%
18.5%
Loss rate
37.5%
94.4%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
85.2%
Over 2.5 rate
68.8%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
56.3%
2.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
Venue performance10 signals 100
27
Matches
8
2.48
PPG
1.50
81.5%
Win rate
37.5%
3.7%
Draw rate
37.5%
14.8%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
88.9%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
74.1%
Over 3.5 rate
62.5%
2.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
27
History Matches
8
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
2.83
Goals for per game
1.81
94.4%
Scoring rate
87.5%
77.8%
BTTS rate
81.3%
3.15
Goals for per game
2.00
96.3%
Scoring rate
87.5%
77.8%
BTTS rate
87.5%
2.33
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
54
History Matches
16
2.83
Goals Mean
1.81
1.62
Goals Std
1.18
94.4%
Scored 1+ rate
87.5%
77.8%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
55.6%
Scored 3+ rate
37.5%
3.15
Venue Goals Mean
2.00
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.44
Goals against per game
1.69
81.5%
Conceding rate
93.8%
1.26
Goals against per game
1.63
81.5%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
54
History Matches
16
1.44
Conceded Mean
1.69
1.18
Conceded Std
0.85
37.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
56.3%
18.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.8%
1.26
Venue Conceded Mean
1.63
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
6.3%
5.6%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
3.7%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
6.3%
5.6%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
3.7%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
6.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
54
History Matches
16
0.73
Result entropy
0.99
2.14
Goal Difference Std
1.36
26.84
Stability score
1.49
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
50
Eligible Matches
14
25
Lead Matches
1
96.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
1.00
7
Trailing Matches
6
42.9%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
28.6%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals 50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
14
1.26
First Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
1.64
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.21
0.84
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.98
Rest days
84.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.67
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
27
Normal Rest History Matches
8
2.04
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.38
23
Long Rest History Matches
7
2.61
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.43
Competition & season17 signals 170
3
Matches
3
2.33
PPG
1.67
66.7%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
66.7%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.33
Current Competition PPG
1.67
1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
6
Competition Season Count
2
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.15
Portability PPG Std
0.18
0.38
Portability PPG Range
0.36
77.20
Portability Score
73.58
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
54
Clean History Matches
16
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO163.8
PPG0.85
GF1.02
GA-0.24
PPG0.67
PPG0.98
PPG1.60
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches38
Clean-sheet rate12.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches19
Clean-sheet rate18.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches38
Goals Mean1.02
Goals Std0.43
Scored 1+ rate6.9%
Scored 2+ rate27.8%
Scored 3+ rate18.1%
Venue Goals Mean1.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.35
History Matches38
Conceded Mean-0.24
Conceded Std0.34
Clean-sheet rate12.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.19
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean-0.37
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.22
History Matches38
Result entropy-0.25
Goal Difference Std0.77
Stability score25.35
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.41
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.63
Eligible Matches36
Lead Matches24
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate11.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches36
First Half Goals For Mean0.83
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.38
Second Half Goals For Mean0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.03
Portability PPG Range0.03
Portability Score3.61
Rest days-0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest History Matches19
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.66
Long Rest History Matches16
Long Rest Points Per Match1.18
Current Team ELO163.8
Current Opponent ELO-163.8
Current ELO Difference327.5
Expected score0.44
History Matches38
Residual Mean0.15
Overperformance10.97
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Legia Warszawa U19
W
Clermont U191–2Legia Warszawa U194 Nov · away
Pick: Legia Warszawa U19 42% · hit W
Legia Warszawa U195–1Śląsk Wrocław U1931 Oct · home
Pick: Legia Warszawa U19 70% · hit W
Legia Warszawa U193–1Clermont U1928 Oct · home
Pick: Legia Warszawa U19 74% · hit D
Escola Varsovia U191–1Legia Warszawa U1925 Oct · away
Pick: Legia Warszawa U19 62% · missed W
Wisła Kraków U193–4Legia Warszawa U1917 Oct · away
Pick: Legia Warszawa U19 55% · hit Arka Gdynia U19
W
Arka Gdynia U191–0Wisła Kraków U196 Nov · home
Pick: Wisła Kraków U19 38% · missed L
Zagłębie Lubin U197–0Arka Gdynia U1930 Oct · away
Pick: Zagłębie Lubin U19 48% · hit W
Arka Gdynia U191–0Polonia Warszawa U1925 Oct · home
Pick: Arka Gdynia U19 46% · hit L
Arkonia U191–0Arka Gdynia U1917 Oct · away
Pick: Arkonia U19 46% · hit D
Arka Gdynia U192–2Jagiellonia U1929 Aug · home
Pick: Arka Gdynia U19 46% · missed About this match
Legia Warszawa U19 and Arka Gdynia U19 meet in Central Youth League on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Legia Warszawa U19 win 74.2%, draw 12.2%, Arka Gdynia U19 win 13.6%. The pick is Legia Warszawa U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 76.4%. Both teams to score: 62.8%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.