Rathfriland vs H&W Welders
Match result probability Model pick: H&W Welders win
Rathfriland win
14.0%
Draw
22.4%
H&W Welders winPick
63.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes57.9%
No42.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.569.5%
Under 2.530.5%
How much we know
Rathfriland history16 matches
H&W Welders history71 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours H&W Welders
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:45 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 19:45 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (63.6%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,914 matches.
Why H&W Welders are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
H&W Welders are rated 69 Elo points higher
Elo 1,536 against 1,467. On rating alone H&W Welders would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.
-
H&W Welders score more
1.81 goals a game over 16 matches for Rathfriland, against 2.10 over 71 for H&W Welders.
-
H&W Welders concede fewer
Rathfriland concede 2.00 a game, H&W Welders 1.32.
-
Rathfriland games more often go over 2.5 goals
88% of Rathfriland matches, against 73% for H&W Welders. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
H&W Welders@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1467.0
ELO
1536.2
16
ELO · Matches
71
1467.0
Current Team ELO
1536.2
1536.2
Current Opponent ELO
1467.0
-69.15
Current ELO Difference
69.15
0.40
Expected score
0.60
16
History Matches
71
-0.10
Residual Mean
0.03
45.47
Overperformance
52.46
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.00
1.60
Goals for per game
1.60
2.60
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.30
2.10
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.33
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.53
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.87
Overall performance9 signals 90
16
Matches
71
1.13
PPG
1.65
37.5%
Win rate
47.9%
0.0%
Draw rate
21.1%
62.5%
Loss rate
31.0%
93.8%
Over 1.5 rate
88.7%
87.5%
Over 2.5 rate
73.2%
56.3%
Over 3.5 rate
36.6%
2.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.51
Venue performance10 signals 100
8
Matches
32
0.75
PPG
1.59
25.0%
Win rate
43.8%
0.0%
Draw rate
28.1%
75.0%
Loss rate
28.1%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
87.5%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
68.8%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
34.4%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
8
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.81
Goals for per game
2.10
87.5%
Scoring rate
83.1%
68.8%
BTTS rate
56.3%
1.63
Goals for per game
1.88
87.5%
Scoring rate
78.1%
75.0%
BTTS rate
59.4%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.75
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
16
History Matches
71
1.81
Goals Mean
2.10
1.24
Goals Std
1.83
87.5%
Scored 1+ rate
83.1%
56.3%
Scored 2+ rate
57.7%
18.8%
Scored 3+ rate
38.0%
1.63
Venue Goals Mean
1.88
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
2.00
Goals against per game
1.32
81.3%
Conceding rate
69.0%
2.13
Goals against per game
1.34
87.5%
Conceding rate
75.0%
3.25
Goals against per game
0.75
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
16
History Matches
71
2.00
Conceded Mean
1.32
1.50
Conceded Std
1.25
56.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.4%
37.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.5%
2.13
Venue Conceded Mean
1.34
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
16.9%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
16.9%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
21.9%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
31.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
16
History Matches
71
0.60
Result entropy
0.95
2.35
Goal Difference Std
2.51
39.78
Stability score
4.96
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
12
Eligible Matches
69
4
Lead Matches
28
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
92.9%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.94
4
Trailing Matches
22
0.0%
Non-loss rate
36.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals 50
12
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.92
First Half Goals For Mean
0.97
1.08
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
1.08
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.13
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.24
Rest days
83.24
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
4
Normal Rest History Matches
57
0.75
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.70
11
Long Rest History Matches
11
1.36
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.45
Competition & season17 signals 170
4
Matches
4
0.00
PPG
2.25
0.0%
Win rate
75.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.00
Current Competition PPG
2.25
-2.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
6
Competition Season Count
7
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.94
Portability PPG Std
0.49
1.88
Portability PPG Range
1.54
34.78
Portability Score
50.36
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
16
Clean History Matches
71
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-69.15
PPG-0.52
GF-0.29
GA0.68
PPG-2.25
PPG-0.84
PPG-1.40
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-55
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches-24
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches-55
Goals Mean-0.29
Goals Std-0.60
Scored 1+ rate4.4%
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Goals Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.32
History Matches-55
Conceded Mean0.68
Conceded Std0.25
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Conceded 2+ rate16.8%
Conceded 3+ rate22.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.78
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.72
History Matches-55
Result entropy-0.35
Goal Difference Std-0.16
Stability score34.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.66
Eligible Matches-57
Lead Matches-24
Lead Win Rate7.1%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-18
Non-loss rate-0.36
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches-57
First Half Goals For Mean-0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.40
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.25
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-4
Portability PPG Std0.44
Portability PPG Range0.34
Portability Score-15.58
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-53
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.95
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.09
Current Team ELO-69.15
Current Opponent ELO69.15
Current ELO Difference-138.3
Expected score-0.20
History Matches-55
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-6.99
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Rathfriland
W
Ballinamallard United0–1Rathfriland6 Nov · away
Pick: Ballinamallard United 63% · missed D
Rathfriland2–2Strabane Athletic30 Oct · home
Pick: Strabane Athletic 50% · missed W
Dundela0–1Rathfriland17 Oct · away
Pick: Dundela 62% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
H&W Welders
L
H&W Welders1–2Loughgall24 Oct · home
Pick: H&W Welders 51% · missed W
Armagh City1–3H&W Welders20 Oct · away
Pick: H&W Welders 63% · hit L
Glenavon FC4–0H&W Welders16 Oct · away
Pick: H&W Welders 39% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Rathfriland and H&W Welders meet in Championship on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Rathfriland win 14.0%, draw 22.4%, H&W Welders win 63.6%. The pick is H&W Welders win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.5%. Both teams to score: 57.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.