Roosendaal vs GOES
Match result probability Model pick: Roosendaal win
Roosendaal winPick
44.3%
Draw
24.3%
GOES win
31.4%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes60.7%
No39.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.563.3%
Under 2.536.7%
How much we know
Roosendaal history37 matches
GOES history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Roosendaal
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 17:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 18:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.3%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Roosendaal are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Roosendaal are rated 84 Elo points higher
Elo 1,530 against 1,446. On rating alone Roosendaal would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.
-
Roosendaal score more
1.97 goals a game over 37 matches for Roosendaal, against 1.33 over 49 for GOES.
-
Defences are close
Roosendaal concede 1.68 a game, GOES 1.80.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
73% of Roosendaal matches, against 65% for GOES. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
GOES@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1530.2
ELO
1446.2
37
ELO · Matches
49
1530.2
Current Team ELO
1446.2
1446.2
Current Opponent ELO
1530.2
84.02
Current ELO Difference
-84.02
0.62
Expected score
0.38
37
History Matches
49
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.05
52.48
Overperformance
46.30
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.00
2.20
Goals for per game
2.20
1.80
Goals against per game
2.40
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
0.90
2.10
Goals for per game
1.70
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.42
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.26
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.22
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.90
Overall performance9 signals 90
37
Matches
49
1.51
PPG
1.16
43.2%
Win rate
30.6%
21.6%
Draw rate
24.5%
35.1%
Loss rate
44.9%
89.2%
Over 1.5 rate
79.6%
73.0%
Over 2.5 rate
65.3%
48.6%
Over 3.5 rate
40.8%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
Venue performance10 signals 100
18
Matches
24
1.94
PPG
1.25
55.6%
Win rate
33.3%
27.8%
Draw rate
25.0%
16.7%
Loss rate
41.7%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
79.2%
61.1%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.19
18
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.97
Goals for per game
1.33
86.5%
Scoring rate
67.3%
78.4%
BTTS rate
53.1%
2.11
Goals for per game
1.33
83.3%
Scoring rate
58.3%
66.7%
BTTS rate
41.7%
1.50
Goals for per game
2.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
37
History Matches
49
1.97
Goals Mean
1.33
1.40
Goals Std
1.28
86.5%
Scored 1+ rate
67.3%
59.5%
Scored 2+ rate
36.7%
35.1%
Scored 3+ rate
20.4%
2.11
Venue Goals Mean
1.33
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.68
Goals against per game
1.80
89.2%
Conceding rate
81.6%
1.11
Goals against per game
1.63
77.8%
Conceding rate
79.2%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
37
History Matches
49
1.68
Conceded Mean
1.80
1.21
Conceded Std
1.31
40.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
53.1%
27.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
32.7%
1.11
Venue Conceded Mean
1.63
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
10.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.4%
13.5%
Failed-to-score rate
32.7%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
10.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.4%
13.5%
Failed-to-score rate
32.7%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
41.7%
10.8%
Clean-sheet rate
18.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
37
History Matches
49
0.97
Result entropy
0.97
1.83
Goal Difference Std
2.00
3.41
Stability score
2.93
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
31
Eligible Matches
36
10
Lead Matches
8
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.92
8
Trailing Matches
14
37.5%
Non-loss rate
35.7%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
31
Halftime Coverage Matches
36
0.94
First Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.84
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
1.13
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.97
0.90
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.06
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
84.04
Rest days
83.25
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
18
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.17
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.07
18
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.94
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals 170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
2.00
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
4
Competition Season Count
4
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.20
—
Portability PPG Range
0.40
—
Portability Score
71.57
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
37
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO84.02
PPG0.35
GF0.65
GA-0.12
PPG-0.50
PPG0.69
PPG0.80
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate1.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches-12
Goals Mean0.65
Goals Std0.12
Scored 1+ rate19.1%
Scored 2+ rate22.7%
Scored 3+ rate14.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.78
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.28
History Matches-12
Conceded Mean-0.12
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.51
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.17
History Matches-12
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.17
Stability score0.48
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.68
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate1.8%
Trailing Win Rate12.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days0.79
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.09
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.66
Current Team ELO84.02
Current Opponent ELO-84.02
Current ELO Difference168.0
Expected score0.24
History Matches-12
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.18
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.07
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Roosendaal
D
Rijnvogels3–3Roosendaal7 Nov · away
Pick: Rijnvogels 50% · missed D
EVV3–3Roosendaal18 Oct · away
Pick: Roosendaal 54% · missed L
Noordwijk1–0Roosendaal29 Aug · away
Pick: Noordwijk 62% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
GOES
W
GOES4–1Achilles Veen7 Nov · home
Pick: GOES 71% · hit L
Noordwijk3–2GOES24 Oct · away
Pick: Noordwijk 61% · hit L
GOES2–6FC Lisse18 Oct · home
Pick: FC Lisse 60% · hit L
GOES0–4UDI '194 Oct · home
Pick: GOES 40% · missed L
GOES1–4Rijnvogels30 Aug · home
Pick: GOES 42% · missed About this match
Roosendaal and GOES meet in Derde Divisie on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Roosendaal win 44.3%, draw 24.3%, GOES win 31.4%. The pick is Roosendaal win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.3%. Both teams to score: 60.7%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.