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Primera División Peru Round 17 2026

Sporting Cristal vs Cienciano

Sporting Cristal Home · Elo 1,539
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cienciano Away · Elo 1,520
Estadio Alberto Gallardo, Lima Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sporting Cristal win
Sporting Cristal winPick
47.1%
Draw
26.4%
Cienciano win
26.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.0%
No44.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.5%
Under 2.543.5%

How much we know

Sporting Cristal history82 matches
Cienciano history69 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 12 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 21:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.1%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Sporting Cristal are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,539 against 1,520. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.54 goals a game over 82 matches for Sporting Cristal, against 1.43 over 69 for Cienciano.

  • Defences are close

    Sporting Cristal concede 1.30 a game, Cienciano 1.25.

  • Sporting Cristal games more often go over 2.5 goals

    56% of Sporting Cristal matches, against 48% for Cienciano. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sporting Cristal
Cienciano@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1539.2
ELO
1519.6
82
ELO · Matches
69
1539.2
Current Team ELO
1519.6
1519.6
Current Opponent ELO
1539.2
19.60
Current ELO Difference
-19.60
0.53
Expected score
0.47
82
History Matches
69
0.03
Residual Mean
0.01
52.25
Overperformance
50.59
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.00
1.30
Goals for per game
1.40
0.90
Goals against per game
1.50
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.96
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.50
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.74
Overall performance9 signals
90
82
Matches
69
1.51
PPG
1.38
42.7%
Win rate
36.2%
23.2%
Draw rate
29.0%
34.1%
Loss rate
34.8%
76.8%
Over 1.5 rate
78.3%
56.1%
Over 2.5 rate
47.8%
34.1%
Over 3.5 rate
27.5%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
Venue performance10 signals
100
43
Matches
37
2.07
PPG
0.97
62.8%
Win rate
21.6%
18.6%
Draw rate
32.4%
18.6%
Loss rate
45.9%
74.4%
Over 1.5 rate
75.7%
55.8%
Over 2.5 rate
40.5%
27.9%
Over 3.5 rate
21.6%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
43
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.54
Goals for per game
1.43
79.3%
Scoring rate
72.5%
56.1%
BTTS rate
53.6%
1.81
Goals for per game
1.00
83.7%
Scoring rate
62.2%
48.8%
BTTS rate
48.6%
1.65
Goals for per game
1.53
95.7%
Scoring rate
68.4%
78.3%
BTTS rate
57.9%
82
History Matches
69
1.54
Goals Mean
1.43
1.18
Goals Std
1.32
79.3%
Scored 1+ rate
72.5%
48.8%
Scored 2+ rate
43.5%
17.1%
Scored 3+ rate
15.9%
1.81
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.30
Goals against per game
1.25
70.7%
Conceding rate
75.4%
0.86
Goals against per game
1.43
58.1%
Conceding rate
81.1%
1.61
Goals against per game
1.53
82.6%
Conceding rate
84.2%
82
History Matches
69
1.30
Conceded Mean
1.25
1.20
Conceded Std
1.00
37.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.7%
15.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.7%
0.86
Venue Conceded Mean
1.43
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.3%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
41.9%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
16.3%
Failed-to-score rate
37.8%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
4.3%
Failed-to-score rate
31.6%
29.3%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
41.9%
Clean-sheet rate
18.9%
16.3%
Failed-to-score rate
37.8%
29.3%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
82
History Matches
69
0.97
Result entropy
1.00
1.78
Goal Difference Std
1.75
2.68
Stability score
0.41
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
82
Eligible Matches
69
25
Lead Matches
17
84.0%
Lead Win Rate
70.6%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.78
23
Trailing Matches
18
30.4%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
8.7%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
82
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.66
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
85.04
Rest days
83.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
8
1.29
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.13
53
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.44
21
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.86
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.43
Competition & season17 signals
170
23
Matches
19
1.26
PPG
1.32
34.8%
Win rate
36.8%
21.7%
Draw rate
21.1%
43.5%
Loss rate
42.1%
91.3%
Over 1.5 rate
78.9%
69.6%
Over 2.5 rate
57.9%
43.5%
Over 3.5 rate
36.8%
1.57
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
23
Current Competition Matches
19
1.26
Current Competition PPG
1.32
0.04
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
8
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.37
1.33
Portability PPG Range
1.00
51.45
Portability Score
57.18
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
82
Clean History Matches
69
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO19.60
PPG0.14
GF0.10
GA0.06
PPG-0.05
PPG1.10
PPG0.60
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches13
Clean-sheet rate4.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate22.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches13
Goals Mean0.10
Goals Std-0.14
Scored 1+ rate6.8%
Scored 2+ rate5.3%
Scored 3+ rate1.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.81
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.86
History Matches13
Conceded Mean0.06
Conceded Std0.20
Clean-sheet rate4.6%
Conceded 2+ rate0.1%
Conceded 3+ rate7.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.57
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.56
History Matches13
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.03
Stability score2.27
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.24
Eligible Matches13
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate13.4%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches13
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches4
Current Competition PPG-0.05
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.04
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.10
Portability PPG Range0.33
Portability Score-5.73
Rest days1.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.16
Normal Rest History Matches21
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.06
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.43
Current Team ELO19.60
Current Opponent ELO-19.60
Current ELO Difference39.20
Expected score0.06
History Matches13
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.66
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sporting Cristal

D
ADT1–1Sporting Cristal7 Nov · away
Pick: ADT 40% · missed
W
Sporting Cristal5–0FC Cajamarca2 Nov · home
Pick: Sporting Cristal 60% · hit
L
Cusco3–1Sporting Cristal24 Oct · away
Pick: Cusco 38% · hit
L
Sport Boys1–0Sporting Cristal30 Aug · away
Pick: Sport Boys 41% · hit
W
Sporting Cristal4–1Sport Huancayo26 Aug · home
Pick: Sporting Cristal 53% · hit

Cienciano

L
Alianza Lima1–0Cienciano4 Nov · away
Pick: Alianza Lima 59% · hit
W
Cienciano1–0UTC Cajamarca18 Oct · home
Pick: Cienciano 56% · hit
L
Cienciano1–2Cusco31 Aug · home
Pick: Cienciano 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sporting Cristal and Cienciano meet in Primera División on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 21:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Alberto Gallardo, Lima. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Sporting Cristal win 47.1%, draw 26.4%, Cienciano win 26.6%. The pick is Sporting Cristal win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.5%. Both teams to score: 56.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.