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Derde Divisie Netherlands Round 13 2026

Staphorst vs Sportlust '46

Staphorst Home · Elo 1,475
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sportlust '46 Away · Elo 1,490
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sportlust '46 win
Staphorst win
30.3%
Draw
21.6%
Sportlust '46 winPick
48.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.5%
No37.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.6%
Under 2.530.4%

How much we know

Staphorst history37 matches
Sportlust '46 history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.0%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Sportlust '46 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,475 against 1,490. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.81 goals a game over 37 matches for Staphorst, against 1.94 over 53 for Sportlust '46.

  • Sportlust '46 concede fewer

    Staphorst concede 1.76 a game, Sportlust '46 1.38.

  • Staphorst games more often go over 2.5 goals

    76% of Staphorst matches, against 66% for Sportlust '46. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Staphorst
Sportlust '46@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1474.9
ELO
1490.2
37
ELO · Matches
53
1474.9
Current Team ELO
1490.2
1490.2
Current Opponent ELO
1474.9
-15.33
Current ELO Difference
15.33
0.48
Expected score
0.52
37
History Matches
53
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.01
47.86
Overperformance
49.50
-0.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.40
2.20
Goals for per game
1.00
2.00
Goals against per game
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
0.80
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
2.10
Goals against per game
1.90
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.75
Overall performance9 signals
90
37
Matches
53
1.43
PPG
1.66
43.2%
Win rate
49.1%
13.5%
Draw rate
18.9%
43.2%
Loss rate
32.1%
86.5%
Over 1.5 rate
84.9%
75.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.0%
62.2%
Over 3.5 rate
45.3%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
Venue performance10 signals
100
19
Matches
25
1.53
PPG
1.60
47.4%
Win rate
48.0%
10.5%
Draw rate
16.0%
42.1%
Loss rate
36.0%
94.7%
Over 1.5 rate
84.0%
84.2%
Over 2.5 rate
68.0%
73.7%
Over 3.5 rate
56.0%
2.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.20
19
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.81
Goals for per game
1.94
78.4%
Scoring rate
79.2%
67.6%
BTTS rate
54.7%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.92
78.9%
Scoring rate
80.0%
68.4%
BTTS rate
52.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
37
History Matches
53
1.81
Goals Mean
1.94
1.37
Goals Std
1.48
78.4%
Scored 1+ rate
79.2%
56.8%
Scored 2+ rate
54.7%
29.7%
Scored 3+ rate
37.7%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.92
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.76
Goals against per game
1.38
89.2%
Conceding rate
71.7%
1.79
Goals against per game
1.60
89.5%
Conceding rate
68.0%
3.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
37
History Matches
53
1.76
Conceded Mean
1.38
1.10
Conceded Std
1.19
54.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.4%
24.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.1%
1.79
Venue Conceded Mean
1.60
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
10.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
21.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
10.5%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
10.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
21.6%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
10.5%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
21.1%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
10.8%
Clean-sheet rate
28.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
37
History Matches
53
0.91
Result entropy
0.94
2.01
Goal Difference Std
2.08
9.38
Stability score
6.36
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
26
Eligible Matches
38
7
Lead Matches
12
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
83.3%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.89
10
Trailing Matches
11
40.0%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
26
Halftime Coverage Matches
38
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.81
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.68
1.12
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.03
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
84.04
Rest days
84.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
20
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.70
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.47
16
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.13
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.90
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.50
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.50
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
4
Competition Season Count
5
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
—
Portability PPG Std
0.55
—
Portability PPG Range
1.17
—
Portability Score
47.62
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
37
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-15.33
PPG-0.23
GF-0.13
GA0.38
PPG-0.50
PPG-0.07
PPG1.00
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate0.9%
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.21
Failed-to-score rate1.1%
History Matches-16
Goals Mean-0.13
Goals Std-0.11
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate2.0%
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean0.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.23
History Matches-16
Conceded Mean0.38
Conceded Std-0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate10.7%
Conceded 3+ rate9.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.19
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches-16
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.07
Stability score3.03
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.32
Eligible Matches-12
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate21.8%
Trailing Win Rate10.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches-12
First Half Goals For Mean-0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Rest days0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-12
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.23
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.78
Current Team ELO-15.33
Current Opponent ELO15.33
Current ELO Difference-30.67
Expected score-0.04
History Matches-16
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-1.64
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Staphorst

L
Staphorst1–3Eemdijk7 Nov · home
Pick: Eemdijk 49% · hit
L
Hercules4–1Staphorst24 Oct · away
Pick: Hercules 42% · hit
W
Staphorst2–1DVS 33 Ermelo17 Oct · home
Pick: DVS 33 Ermelo 38% · missed
D
ADO '200–0Staphorst29 Aug · away
Pick: ADO '20 55% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sportlust '46

W
Sportlust '461–0SC Genemuiden7 Nov · home
Pick: SC Genemuiden 49% · missed
L
Eemdijk3–1Sportlust '4623 Oct · away
Pick: Eemdijk 40% · hit
L
Sportlust '461–3ADO '2017 Oct · home
Pick: Sportlust '46 49% · missed
W
Sportlust '463–1Blauw Geel1 Sep · home
Pick: Sportlust '46 41% · hit
W
TEC1–2Sportlust '4629 Aug · away
Pick: TEC 52% · missed

About this match

Staphorst and Sportlust '46 meet in Derde Divisie on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Staphorst win 30.3%, draw 21.6%, Sportlust '46 win 48.0%. The pick is Sportlust '46 win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.6%. Both teams to score: 62.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.