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4. liga - Divizie E Czechia Group E - 1 2026

Strání vs Břeclav

Strání Home · Elo 1,541
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Břeclav Away · Elo 1,448
Stadion na Zelnickach Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Strání win
Strání winPick
56.2%
Draw
24.0%
Břeclav win
19.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.1%
No44.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.8%
Under 2.540.2%

How much we know

Strání history54 matches
Břeclav history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.2%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Strání are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Strání are rated 93 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,541 against 1,448. On rating alone Strání would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Strání score far more

    1.83 goals a game over 54 matches for Strání, against 1.06 over 47 for Břeclav.

  • Strání concede fewer

    Strání concede 1.30 a game, Břeclav 1.57.

  • Strání games more often go over 2.5 goals

    63% of Strání matches, against 47% for Břeclav. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Strání
Břeclav@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1540.9
ELO
1447.7
54
ELO · Matches
47
1540.9
Current Team ELO
1447.7
1447.7
Current Opponent ELO
1540.9
93.26
Current ELO Difference
-93.26
0.63
Expected score
0.37
54
History Matches
47
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.06
52.20
Overperformance
45.74
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
2.40
Goals for per game
1.20
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.10
2.30
Goals for per game
1.10
1.30
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.22
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.01
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.96
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
47
1.61
PPG
1.13
48.1%
Win rate
29.8%
16.7%
Draw rate
23.4%
35.2%
Loss rate
46.8%
79.6%
Over 1.5 rate
63.8%
63.0%
Over 2.5 rate
46.8%
44.4%
Over 3.5 rate
36.2%
2.10
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
25
1.80
PPG
1.00
56.0%
Win rate
24.0%
12.0%
Draw rate
28.0%
32.0%
Loss rate
48.0%
72.0%
Over 1.5 rate
64.0%
64.0%
Over 2.5 rate
44.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
44.0%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
25
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.83
Goals for per game
1.06
85.2%
Scoring rate
59.6%
59.3%
BTTS rate
42.6%
1.72
Goals for per game
0.92
92.0%
Scoring rate
52.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
36.0%
2.67
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
54
History Matches
47
1.83
Goals Mean
1.06
1.49
Goals Std
1.06
85.2%
Scored 1+ rate
59.6%
46.3%
Scored 2+ rate
34.0%
29.6%
Scored 3+ rate
12.8%
1.72
Venue Goals Mean
0.92
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.30
Goals against per game
1.57
72.2%
Conceding rate
70.2%
1.20
Goals against per game
1.80
68.0%
Conceding rate
68.0%
1.33
Goals against per game
0.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
54
History Matches
47
1.30
Conceded Mean
1.57
1.16
Conceded Std
1.54
35.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.7%
14.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.4%
1.20
Venue Conceded Mean
1.80
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.8%
14.8%
Failed-to-score rate
40.4%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
8.0%
Failed-to-score rate
48.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.8%
14.8%
Failed-to-score rate
40.4%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.0%
8.0%
Failed-to-score rate
48.0%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
47
0.93
Result entropy
0.96
2.10
Goal Difference Std
1.76
7.33
Stability score
3.88
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
47
20
Lead Matches
13
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
69.2%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.77
15
Trailing Matches
14
20.0%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
0.81
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
1.02
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.67
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
82.94
Rest days
89.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
28
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.12
23
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.70
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
2
2.33
PPG
2.00
66.7%
Win rate
50.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
3
Current Competition Matches
2
2.33
Current Competition PPG
2.00
1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
6
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.75
Portability PPG Std
0.09
2.00
Portability PPG Range
0.18
39.85
Portability Score
84.85
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO93.26
PPG0.48
GF0.77
GA-0.28
PPG0.33
PPG0.80
PPG0.00
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.26
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.40
History Matches7
Goals Mean0.77
Goals Std0.43
Scored 1+ rate25.6%
Scored 2+ rate12.3%
Scored 3+ rate16.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.22
History Matches7
Conceded Mean-0.28
Conceded Std-0.38
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.91
History Matches7
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.34
Stability score3.45
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.48
Eligible Matches7
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate10.8%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate5.7%
Trailing Win Rate6.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches7
First Half Goals For Mean0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.33
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.67
Portability PPG Range1.82
Portability Score-45.00
Rest days-7.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.38
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.45
Current Team ELO93.26
Current Opponent ELO-93.26
Current ELO Difference186.5
Expected score0.26
History Matches7
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.46
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.16

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Strání

W
Holešov1–3Strání7 Nov · away
Pick: Strání 38% · hit
W
Strání9–1Brumov1 Nov · home
Pick: Strání 63% · hit
W
Baťov0–6Strání23 Oct · away
Pick: Strání 53% · hit
L
Strání0–2Prostejov B17 Oct · home
Pick: Strání 73% · missed
L
Strání1–3Šternberk4 Oct · home
Pick: Strání 72% · missed

Břeclav

L
Břeclav1–2Bzenec7 Nov · home
Pick: Břeclav 54% · missed
L
Tatran Všechovice5–0Břeclav31 Oct · away
Pick: Tatran Všechovice 64% · hit
L
Břeclav0–2Slavičín24 Oct · home
Pick: Břeclav 51% · missed
L
Nové Sady2–0Břeclav17 Oct · away
Pick: Břeclav 48% · missed
D
Kozlovice1–1Břeclav4 Oct · away
Pick: Kozlovice 58% · missed

About this match

Strání and Břeclav meet in 4. liga - Divizie E on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion na Zelnickach. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Strání win 56.2%, draw 24.0%, Břeclav win 19.8%. The pick is Strání win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.8%. Both teams to score: 55.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.