ScoreProb
Log in
III Liga - Group 2 Poland Group II - 17 2026

Wda Świecie vs Chemik Bydgoszcz

Wda Świecie Home · Elo 1,537
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Chemik Bydgoszcz Away · Elo 1,517
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Wda Świecie win
Wda Świecie winPick
61.4%
Draw
14.8%
Chemik Bydgoszcz win
23.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.7%
No44.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.567.0%
Under 2.533.0%

How much we know

Wda Świecie history56 matches
Chemik Bydgoszcz history11 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (61.4%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.

Why Wda Świecie are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,537 against 1,517. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Chemik Bydgoszcz score more

    1.48 goals a game over 56 matches for Wda Świecie, against 2.18 over 11 for Chemik Bydgoszcz.

  • Defences are close

    Wda Świecie concede 1.63 a game, Chemik Bydgoszcz 1.64.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    57% of Wda Świecie matches, against 64% for Chemik Bydgoszcz. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Wda Świecie
Chemik Bydgoszcz@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1536.6
ELO
1517.2
56
ELO · Matches
11
1536.6
Current Team ELO
1517.2
1517.2
Current Opponent ELO
1536.6
19.34
Current ELO Difference
-19.34
0.53
Expected score
0.47
56
History Matches
11
0.03
Residual Mean
0.07
52.14
Overperformance
52.49
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.60
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
2.40
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.50
1.30
Goals for per game
2.10
2.50
Goals against per game
1.60
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.81
2.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
3.58
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.43
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
3.76
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.58
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
11
1.52
PPG
1.64
42.9%
Win rate
45.5%
23.2%
Draw rate
27.3%
33.9%
Loss rate
27.3%
80.4%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
32.1%
Over 3.5 rate
63.6%
2.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.46
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
6
1.85
PPG
1.67
55.6%
Win rate
50.0%
18.5%
Draw rate
16.7%
25.9%
Loss rate
33.3%
92.6%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
74.1%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
40.7%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.95
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.89
27
History Matches
6
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.48
Goals for per game
2.18
76.8%
Scoring rate
100.0%
53.6%
BTTS rate
72.7%
1.93
Goals for per game
2.50
88.9%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
56
History Matches
11
1.48
Goals Mean
2.18
1.28
Goals Std
1.75
76.8%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
42.9%
Scored 2+ rate
45.5%
17.9%
Scored 3+ rate
36.4%
1.93
Venue Goals Mean
2.50
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.63
Goals against per game
1.64
73.2%
Conceding rate
72.7%
1.48
Goals against per game
1.50
77.8%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.40
80.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
56
History Matches
11
1.63
Conceded Mean
1.64
2.06
Conceded Std
1.37
37.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.5%
19.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
36.4%
1.48
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
23.2%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
23.2%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
26.8%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
11
0.97
Result entropy
0.97
2.66
Goal Difference Std
2.46
2.71
Stability score
2.87
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
56
Eligible Matches
9
15
Lead Matches
4
73.3%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.83
18
Trailing Matches
3
16.7%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
9
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.77
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
0.91
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.33
0.86
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.06
Rest days
84.10
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
32
Normal Rest History Matches
6
1.53
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
22
Long Rest History Matches
3
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.60
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
60.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
0.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.26
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.20
Current Competition PPG
0.60
0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
5
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.39
Portability PPG Std
0.83
0.84
Portability PPG Range
1.65
56.49
Portability Score
37.74
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
11
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO19.34
PPG-0.12
GF-0.70
GA-0.01
PPG1.60
PPG0.19
PPG1.60
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches45
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate23.2%
History Matches21
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate11.1%
History Matches45
Goals Mean-0.70
Goals Std-0.47
Scored 1+ rate-0.23
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Goals Mean-0.57
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.81
History Matches45
Conceded Mean-0.01
Conceded Std0.69
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.17
Venue Conceded Mean-0.02
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std2.16
History Matches45
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.19
Stability score-0.16
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.18
Eligible Matches47
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches15
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate11.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches47
First Half Goals For Mean-0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.80
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.44
Portability PPG Range-0.81
Portability Score18.76
Rest days-1.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches26
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.20
Long Rest History Matches19
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.50
Current Team ELO19.34
Current Opponent ELO-19.34
Current ELO Difference38.69
Expected score0.06
History Matches45
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-0.35
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Wda Świecie

D
Wda Świecie1–1Bałtyk Koszalin31 Oct · home
Pick: Wda Świecie 65% · missed
W
Kotwica Kórnik0–2Wda Świecie24 Oct · away
Pick: Wda Świecie 58% · hit
W
Wda Świecie1–0Flota Świnoujście18 Oct · home
Pick: Flota Świnoujście 40% · missed
W
Lech Poznań II1–4Wda Świecie14 Oct · away
Pick: Lech Poznań II 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Chemik Bydgoszcz

W
Chemik Bydgoszcz2–1Elana Toruń7 Nov · home
Pick: Chemik Bydgoszcz 41% · hit
W
Noteć Czarnków1–4Chemik Bydgoszcz31 Oct · away
Pick: Noteć Czarnków 64% · missed
L
Chemik Bydgoszcz1–3Unia Swarzędz24 Oct · home
Pick: Chemik Bydgoszcz 36% · missed
L
Grom Nowy Staw2–0Chemik Bydgoszcz17 Oct · away
Pick: Grom Nowy Staw 45% · hit
L
Chemik Bydgoszcz0–3Piast Gliwice1 Sep · home
Pick: Piast Gliwice 38% · hit

About this match

Wda Świecie and Chemik Bydgoszcz meet in III Liga - Group 2 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Wda Świecie win 61.4%, draw 14.8%, Chemik Bydgoszcz win 23.8%. The pick is Wda Świecie win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.0%. Both teams to score: 55.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.