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Oberliga - Bayern Süd Germany Bayern Süd - 19 2026

1860 Rosenheim vs Pfaffenhofen

1860 Rosenheim Home · Elo 1,494
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Pfaffenhofen Away · Elo 1,531
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: 1860 Rosenheim win
1860 Rosenheim winPick
46.1%
Draw
25.3%
Pfaffenhofen win
28.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.0%
No38.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.9%
Under 2.540.1%

How much we know

1860 Rosenheim history8 matches
Pfaffenhofen history7 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.1%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why 1860 Rosenheim are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Pfaffenhofen are rated 37 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,531 against 1,494. On rating alone Pfaffenhofen would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Pfaffenhofen score more

    1.50 goals a game over 8 matches for 1860 Rosenheim, against 1.86 over 7 for Pfaffenhofen.

  • 1860 Rosenheim concede fewer

    1860 Rosenheim concede 1.13 a game, Pfaffenhofen 1.57.

  • Pfaffenhofen games more often go over 2.5 goals

    38% of 1860 Rosenheim matches, against 57% for Pfaffenhofen. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
1860 Rosenheim
Pfaffenhofen@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1493.9
ELO
1531.3
8
ELO · Matches
7
1493.9
Current Team ELO
1531.3
1531.3
Current Opponent ELO
1493.9
-37.41
Current ELO Difference
37.41
0.45
Expected score
0.55
8
History Matches
7
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.21
49.50
Overperformance
55.43
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.21
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.00
1.80
Goals for per game
2.20
1.00
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
8
Matches
7
1.25
PPG
2.00
1.50
Goals for per game
1.86
1.13
Goals against per game
1.57
25.0%
Win rate
57.1%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.86
1.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.46
1.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.57
0.93
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.59
0.95
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.87
2.34
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.37
Overall performance9 signals
90
8
Matches
7
1.25
PPG
2.00
25.0%
Win rate
57.1%
50.0%
Draw rate
28.6%
25.0%
Loss rate
14.3%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
37.5%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
37.5%
Over 3.5 rate
57.1%
2.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.37
Venue performance10 signals
100
5
Matches
4
1.80
PPG
1.75
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
60.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
60.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
75.0%
2.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.95
5
History Matches
4
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.50
Goals for per game
1.86
62.5%
Scoring rate
71.4%
37.5%
BTTS rate
57.1%
2.20
Goals for per game
1.75
80.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.57
Goals for per game
1.86
57.1%
Scoring rate
71.4%
42.9%
BTTS rate
57.1%
8
History Matches
7
1.50
Goals Mean
1.86
1.87
Goals Std
1.46
62.5%
Scored 1+ rate
71.4%
37.5%
Scored 2+ rate
57.1%
12.5%
Scored 3+ rate
42.9%
2.20
Venue Goals Mean
1.75
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.13
Goals against per game
1.57
62.5%
Conceding rate
71.4%
0.80
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.29
Goals against per game
1.57
71.4%
Conceding rate
71.4%
8
History Matches
7
1.13
Conceded Mean
1.57
0.93
Conceded Std
1.59
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.9%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.3%
0.80
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
60.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
8
History Matches
7
0.95
Result entropy
0.87
2.34
Goal Difference Std
2.37
5.36
Stability score
13.01
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
8
Eligible Matches
7
2
Lead Matches
3
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
1.00
1
Trailing Matches
2
0.0%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
50.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
8
Halftime Coverage Matches
7
0.88
First Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
0.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
84.04
Rest days
80.86
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
6
Normal Rest History Matches
5
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
1
Long Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
3.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
7
Matches
7
1.00
PPG
2.00
14.3%
Win rate
57.1%
57.1%
Draw rate
28.6%
28.6%
Loss rate
14.3%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
57.1%
2.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.37
7
Current Competition Matches
7
1.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.29
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.29
2
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
8
Clean History Matches
7
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-37.41
PPG-0.75
GF-0.36
GA-0.45
PPG-1.00
PPG0.05
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.75
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate8.9%
Failed-to-score rate8.9%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate35.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.30
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.36
Goals Std0.41
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.20
Scored 3+ rate-0.30
Venue Goals Mean0.45
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.36
Recent 10 Goals Std0.41
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.45
Conceded Std-0.66
Clean-sheet rate8.9%
Conceded 2+ rate7.1%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Conceded Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.45
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.66
History Matches1
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.03
Stability score-7.65
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.03
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.50
Lead Points Retention-0.33
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate-0.50
Trailing Win Rate-0.50
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.34
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days3.18
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Current Team ELO-37.41
Current Opponent ELO37.41
Current ELO Difference-74.81
Expected score-0.11
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.23
Overperformance-5.93
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

1860 Rosenheim

W
Schalding-Heining0–11860 Rosenheim7 Nov · away
Pick: 1860 Rosenheim 60% · hit
W
Schwabmünchen0–21860 Rosenheim31 Oct · away
Pick: 1860 Rosenheim 45% · hit
W
1860 Rosenheim2–1TuS Geretsried23 Oct · home
Pick: 1860 Rosenheim 49% · hit
D
Heimstetten1–11860 Rosenheim17 Oct · away
Pick: Heimstetten 48% · missed
L
Kirchanschöring3–11860 Rosenheim29 Aug · away
Pick: Kirchanschöring 47% · hit

Pfaffenhofen

D
Pfaffenhofen3–3Ismaning7 Nov · home
Pick: Ismaning 45% · missed
L
Pfaffenhofen1–5Erlbach31 Oct · home
Pick: Erlbach 34% · hit
W
Kirchanschöring0–2Pfaffenhofen24 Oct · away
Pick: Kirchanschöring 46% · missed
W
Pfaffenhofen2–1Gundelfingen17 Oct · home
Pick: Pfaffenhofen 46% · hit
L
Pfaffenhofen0–3Schwabmünchen29 Aug · home
Pick: Pfaffenhofen 62% · missed

About this match

1860 Rosenheim and Pfaffenhofen meet in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: 1860 Rosenheim win 46.1%, draw 25.3%, Pfaffenhofen win 28.6%. The pick is 1860 Rosenheim win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.9%. Both teams to score: 62.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.