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Oberliga - Bayern Süd Germany Bayern Süd - 19 2026

Sportfreunde Schwaig vs Heimstetten

Sportfreunde Schwaig Home · Elo 1,504
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Heimstetten Away · Elo 1,496
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sportfreunde Schwaig win
Sportfreunde Schwaig winPick
47.2%
Draw
23.8%
Heimstetten win
29.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.8%
No40.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.4%
Under 2.538.6%

How much we know

Sportfreunde Schwaig history42 matches
Heimstetten history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.2%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Sportfreunde Schwaig are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,504 against 1,496. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Heimstetten score more

    1.52 goals a game over 42 matches for Sportfreunde Schwaig, against 2.05 over 55 for Heimstetten.

  • Sportfreunde Schwaig concede fewer

    Sportfreunde Schwaig concede 1.33 a game, Heimstetten 1.82.

  • Heimstetten games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Sportfreunde Schwaig matches, against 65% for Heimstetten. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sportfreunde Schwaig
Heimstetten@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1504.0
ELO
1496.1
42
ELO · Matches
55
1504.0
Current Team ELO
1496.1
1496.1
Current Opponent ELO
1504.0
7.91
Current ELO Difference
-7.91
0.51
Expected score
0.49
42
History Matches
55
0.01
Residual Mean
0.00
50.61
Overperformance
49.84
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
0.90
1.70
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
2.10
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.27
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.80
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.51
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.68
Overall performance9 signals
90
42
Matches
55
1.40
PPG
1.44
35.7%
Win rate
40.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
23.6%
31.0%
Loss rate
36.4%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
87.3%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
65.5%
31.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.9%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.52
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
27
1.45
PPG
1.19
36.4%
Win rate
33.3%
36.4%
Draw rate
18.5%
27.3%
Loss rate
48.1%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
85.2%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
59.3%
31.8%
Over 3.5 rate
48.1%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.36
22
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.52
Goals for per game
2.05
78.6%
Scoring rate
85.5%
57.1%
BTTS rate
72.7%
1.59
Goals for per game
1.67
77.3%
Scoring rate
81.5%
59.1%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.71
Goals for per game
1.29
85.7%
Scoring rate
85.7%
85.7%
BTTS rate
71.4%
42
History Matches
55
1.52
Goals Mean
2.05
1.33
Goals Std
1.74
78.6%
Scored 1+ rate
85.5%
38.1%
Scored 2+ rate
49.1%
19.0%
Scored 3+ rate
32.7%
1.59
Venue Goals Mean
1.67
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.33
Goals against per game
1.82
71.4%
Conceding rate
83.6%
1.27
Goals against per game
2.07
68.2%
Conceding rate
85.2%
1.14
Goals against per game
1.71
85.7%
Conceding rate
85.7%
42
History Matches
55
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.82
1.25
Conceded Std
1.59
38.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.6%
14.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
25.5%
1.27
Venue Conceded Mean
2.07
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
16.4%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
14.5%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
14.8%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
16.4%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
14.5%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
14.8%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
16.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
42
History Matches
55
1.00
Result entropy
0.98
1.79
Goal Difference Std
2.52
0.15
Stability score
2.12
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
39
Eligible Matches
55
12
Lead Matches
20
58.3%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.72
Lead Points Retention
0.80
10
Trailing Matches
14
30.0%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
39
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
1.05
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.04
Rest days
80.91
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
23
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.48
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.82
15
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.40
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.95
Competition & season17 signals
170
7
Matches
7
1.43
PPG
1.14
28.6%
Win rate
28.6%
57.1%
Draw rate
28.6%
14.3%
Loss rate
42.9%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
57.1%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
7
Current Competition Matches
7
1.43
Current Competition PPG
1.14
0.57
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.43
3
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.17
Portability PPG Std
0.58
0.40
Portability PPG Range
1.48
74.45
Portability Score
46.38
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
42
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO7.91
PPG-0.03
GF-0.53
GA-0.48
PPG0.29
PPG0.27
PPG-0.80
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-13
Clean-sheet rate12.2%
Failed-to-score rate6.9%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate17.0%
Failed-to-score rate4.2%
History Matches-13
Goals Mean-0.53
Goals Std-0.41
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean-0.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.47
History Matches-13
Conceded Mean-0.48
Conceded Std-0.34
Clean-sheet rate12.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.76
History Matches-13
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.73
Stability score-1.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.24
Eligible Matches-16
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate-0.17
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate1.4%
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches-16
First Half Goals For Mean-0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.26
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.29
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.41
Portability PPG Range-1.08
Portability Score28.08
Rest days2.14
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.33
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.34
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.45
Current Team ELO7.91
Current Opponent ELO-7.91
Current ELO Difference15.81
Expected score0.02
History Matches-13
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.77
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sportfreunde Schwaig

L
1880 Wasserburg2–0Sportfreunde Schwaig6 Nov · away
Pick: Sportfreunde Schwaig 41% · missed
L
Pipinsried2–0Sportfreunde Schwaig31 Oct · away
Pick: Pipinsried 60% · hit
W
Sportfreunde Schwaig5–0Deisenhofen23 Oct · home
Pick: Sportfreunde Schwaig 46% · hit
D
Sportfreunde Schwaig3–31860 München II16 Oct · home
Pick: Sportfreunde Schwaig 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Heimstetten

D
Heimstetten3–3Pipinsried7 Nov · home
Pick: Pipinsried 48% · missed
W
1860 München II1–4Heimstetten31 Oct · away
Pick: 1860 München II 58% · missed
D
Kottern1–1Heimstetten24 Oct · away
Pick: Heimstetten 41% · missed
D
Heimstetten1–11860 Rosenheim17 Oct · home
Pick: Heimstetten 48% · missed
D
Pfaffenhofen1–1Heimstetten25 Aug · away
Pick: Pfaffenhofen 51% · missed

About this match

Sportfreunde Schwaig and Heimstetten meet in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Sportfreunde Schwaig win 47.2%, draw 23.8%, Heimstetten win 29.0%. The pick is Sportfreunde Schwaig win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.4%. Both teams to score: 59.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.