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Oberliga - Bayern Süd Germany Bayern Süd - 19 2026

Kottern vs Schalding-Heining

Kottern Home · Elo 1,417
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Schalding-Heining Away · Elo 1,406
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kottern win
Kottern winPick
57.9%
Draw
19.5%
Schalding-Heining win
22.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.2%
No41.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.4%
Under 2.535.6%

How much we know

Kottern history56 matches
Schalding-Heining history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.9%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Kottern are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,417 against 1,406. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.27 goals a game over 56 matches for Kottern, against 1.19 over 53 for Schalding-Heining.

  • Kottern concede fewer

    Kottern concede 1.68 a game, Schalding-Heining 2.02.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    54% of Kottern matches, against 53% for Schalding-Heining. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kottern
Schalding-Heining@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1416.8
ELO
1406.1
56
ELO · Matches
53
1416.8
Current Team ELO
1406.1
1406.1
Current Opponent ELO
1416.8
10.70
Current ELO Difference
-10.70
0.52
Expected score
0.48
56
History Matches
53
-0.07
Residual Mean
-0.09
44.58
Overperformance
43.13
-0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
0.20
0.40
Goals for per game
0.80
1.60
Goals against per game
3.80
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
0.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.30
1.50
Goals against per game
3.00
20.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.18
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.00
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.14
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.57
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.41
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
53
1.11
PPG
0.87
30.4%
Win rate
18.9%
19.6%
Draw rate
30.2%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.9%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.0%
53.6%
Over 2.5 rate
52.8%
33.9%
Over 3.5 rate
41.5%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
29
1.32
PPG
0.79
39.3%
Win rate
20.7%
14.3%
Draw rate
17.2%
46.4%
Loss rate
62.1%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
79.3%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
58.6%
39.3%
Over 3.5 rate
44.8%
2.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.92
28
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.27
Goals for per game
1.19
69.6%
Scoring rate
67.9%
46.4%
BTTS rate
58.5%
1.46
Goals for per game
1.17
67.9%
Scoring rate
62.1%
39.3%
BTTS rate
55.2%
0.71
Goals for per game
1.43
57.1%
Scoring rate
85.7%
42.9%
BTTS rate
85.7%
56
History Matches
53
1.27
Goals Mean
1.19
1.13
Goals Std
1.20
69.6%
Scored 1+ rate
67.9%
37.5%
Scored 2+ rate
32.1%
16.1%
Scored 3+ rate
9.4%
1.46
Venue Goals Mean
1.17
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.68
Goals against per game
2.02
67.9%
Conceding rate
86.8%
1.61
Goals against per game
2.28
67.9%
Conceding rate
89.7%
1.71
Goals against per game
3.29
71.4%
Conceding rate
100.0%
56
History Matches
53
1.68
Conceded Mean
2.02
1.62
Conceded Std
1.55
46.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
56.6%
28.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
30.2%
1.61
Venue Conceded Mean
2.28
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
13.2%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
10.3%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
13.2%
30.4%
Failed-to-score rate
32.1%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
10.3%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
13.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
53
0.94
Result entropy
0.93
2.00
Goal Difference Std
1.96
6.41
Stability score
7.17
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
52
16
Lead Matches
6
81.3%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
1.00
20
Trailing Matches
23
15.0%
Non-loss rate
26.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.78
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.96
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.91
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.06
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.85
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
31
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.42
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.86
22
Long Rest History Matches
15
0.82
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.73
Competition & season17 signals
170
7
Matches
7
0.57
PPG
0.71
14.3%
Win rate
14.3%
14.3%
Draw rate
28.6%
71.4%
Loss rate
57.1%
42.9%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
71.4%
1.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.80
7
Current Competition Matches
7
0.57
Current Competition PPG
0.71
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.86
6
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.57
Portability PPG Std
0.41
1.48
Portability PPG Range
1.13
46.82
Portability Score
55.14
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO10.70
PPG0.24
GF0.08
GA-0.34
PPG-0.14
PPG0.53
PPG0.00
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate18.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate21.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.08
Goals Std-0.07
Scored 1+ rate1.7%
Scored 2+ rate5.4%
Scored 3+ rate6.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.29
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.08
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.34
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate18.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.78
History Matches3
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.04
Stability score-0.76
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.85
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate-0.19
Lead Points Retention-0.17
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.14
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.86
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.16
Portability PPG Range0.36
Portability Score-8.32
Rest days0.81
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.56
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.08
Current Team ELO10.70
Current Opponent ELO-10.70
Current ELO Difference21.41
Expected score0.03
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.45
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Kottern

D
Schwabmünchen1–1Kottern7 Nov · away
Pick: Schwabmünchen 43% · missed
W
TuS Geretsried0–2Kottern31 Oct · away
Pick: TuS Geretsried 45% · missed
D
Kottern1–1Heimstetten24 Oct · home
Pick: Heimstetten 41% · missed
D
Pipinsried2–2Kottern17 Oct · away
Pick: Pipinsried 62% · missed
D
Gundelfingen1–1Kottern29 Aug · away
Pick: Gundelfingen 49% · missed

Schalding-Heining

L
Schalding-Heining0–11860 Rosenheim7 Nov · home
Pick: 1860 Rosenheim 60% · hit
L
Schalding-Heining0–1Ismaning31 Oct · home
Pick: Ismaning 57% · hit
L
Erlbach2–1Schalding-Heining23 Oct · away
Pick: Erlbach 71% · hit
L
Schalding-Heining0–2Kirchanschöring17 Oct · home
Pick: Kirchanschöring 51% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Kottern and Schalding-Heining meet in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Kottern win 57.9%, draw 19.5%, Schalding-Heining win 22.6%. The pick is Kottern win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.4%. Both teams to score: 58.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.