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Oberliga - Bayern Süd Germany Bayern Süd - 19 2026

Pipinsried vs TuS Geretsried

Pipinsried Home · Elo 1,555
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
TuS Geretsried Away · Elo 1,486
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Pipinsried win
Pipinsried winPick
64.6%
Draw
17.9%
TuS Geretsried win
17.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.0%
No40.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.571.5%
Under 2.528.5%

How much we know

Pipinsried history52 matches
TuS Geretsried history41 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (64.6%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.

Why Pipinsried are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Pipinsried are rated 68 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,555 against 1,486. On rating alone Pipinsried would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Pipinsried score more

    2.02 goals a game over 52 matches for Pipinsried, against 1.59 over 41 for TuS Geretsried.

  • Pipinsried concede fewer

    Pipinsried concede 1.25 a game, TuS Geretsried 1.59.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    67% of Pipinsried matches, against 63% for TuS Geretsried. The model puts this match at 72% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Pipinsried
TuS Geretsried@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1554.6
ELO
1486.1
52
ELO · Matches
41
1554.6
Current Team ELO
1486.1
1486.1
Current Opponent ELO
1554.6
68.44
Current ELO Difference
-68.44
0.60
Expected score
0.40
52
History Matches
41
0.05
Residual Mean
-0.01
53.25
Overperformance
49.05
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.60
2.40
Goals for per game
2.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.40
2.80
Goals for per game
2.00
1.30
Goals against per game
2.00
70.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.89
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.67
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.67
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.79
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
41
1.71
PPG
1.32
51.9%
Win rate
36.6%
15.4%
Draw rate
22.0%
32.7%
Loss rate
41.5%
84.6%
Over 1.5 rate
90.2%
67.3%
Over 2.5 rate
63.4%
38.5%
Over 3.5 rate
29.3%
2.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.34
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
20
2.08
PPG
1.15
66.7%
Win rate
30.0%
8.3%
Draw rate
25.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
45.0%
95.8%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
45.8%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
2.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.22
24
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.02
Goals for per game
1.59
75.0%
Scoring rate
80.5%
50.0%
BTTS rate
68.3%
2.46
Goals for per game
1.35
83.3%
Scoring rate
80.0%
58.3%
BTTS rate
75.0%
2.86
Goals for per game
1.57
85.7%
Scoring rate
71.4%
57.1%
BTTS rate
71.4%
52
History Matches
41
2.02
Goals Mean
1.59
1.73
Goals Std
1.40
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
80.5%
53.8%
Scored 2+ rate
41.5%
38.5%
Scored 3+ rate
14.6%
2.46
Venue Goals Mean
1.35
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.25
Goals against per game
1.59
69.2%
Conceding rate
85.4%
1.21
Goals against per game
1.80
70.8%
Conceding rate
95.0%
1.14
Goals against per game
2.29
71.4%
Conceding rate
85.7%
52
History Matches
41
1.25
Conceded Mean
1.59
1.17
Conceded Std
1.40
32.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.1%
17.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.1%
1.21
Venue Conceded Mean
1.80
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
14.6%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.5%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
5.0%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
14.3%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
14.6%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
19.5%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
5.0%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
30.8%
Clean-sheet rate
14.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
41
0.90
Result entropy
0.97
2.38
Goal Difference Std
2.34
9.54
Stability score
2.99
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
39
18
Lead Matches
14
94.4%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.96
Lead Points Retention
0.81
16
Trailing Matches
14
18.8%
Non-loss rate
14.3%
18.8%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
1.32
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.96
Rest days
84.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.33
31
Normal Rest History Matches
20
1.90
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.35
19
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.58
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.35
Competition & season17 signals
170
7
Matches
7
2.29
PPG
1.14
71.4%
Win rate
28.6%
14.3%
Draw rate
28.6%
14.3%
Loss rate
42.9%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
85.7%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
57.1%
Over 3.5 rate
57.1%
2.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.81
7
Current Competition Matches
7
2.29
Current Competition PPG
1.14
1.71
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.71
5
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.27
Portability PPG Std
0.12
0.68
Portability PPG Range
0.24
65.09
Portability Score
80.37
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
41
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO68.44
PPG0.39
GF0.43
GA-0.34
PPG1.14
PPG0.93
PPG0.40
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate16.1%
Failed-to-score rate5.5%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate24.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches11
Goals Mean0.43
Goals Std0.33
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate12.4%
Scored 3+ rate23.8%
Venue Goals Mean1.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.21
History Matches11
Conceded Mean-0.34
Conceded Std-0.22
Clean-sheet rate16.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate0.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.59
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.77
History Matches11
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std0.05
Stability score6.55
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.25
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate23.0%
Lead Points Retention0.15
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate4.5%
Trailing Win Rate11.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.42
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.14
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.43
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.15
Portability PPG Range0.43
Portability Score-15.28
Rest days-0.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.55
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.23
Current Team ELO68.44
Current Opponent ELO-68.44
Current ELO Difference136.9
Expected score0.19
History Matches11
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance4.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Pipinsried

D
Heimstetten3–3Pipinsried7 Nov · away
Pick: Pipinsried 48% · missed
W
Pipinsried2–0Sportfreunde Schwaig31 Oct · home
Pick: Pipinsried 60% · hit
L
1860 München II2–0Pipinsried23 Oct · away
Pick: 1860 München II 46% · hit
D
Pipinsried2–2Kottern17 Oct · home
Pick: Pipinsried 62% · missed
W
Deisenhofen1–5Pipinsried29 Aug · away
Pick: Pipinsried 49% · hit

TuS Geretsried

D
TuS Geretsried2–21860 München II7 Nov · home
Pick: 1860 München II 47% · missed
L
TuS Geretsried0–2Kottern31 Oct · home
Pick: TuS Geretsried 45% · missed
L
1860 Rosenheim2–1TuS Geretsried23 Oct · away
Pick: 1860 Rosenheim 49% · hit
L
TuS Geretsried1–2Ismaning17 Oct · home
Pick: Ismaning 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Pipinsried and TuS Geretsried meet in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Pipinsried win 64.6%, draw 17.9%, TuS Geretsried win 17.5%. The pick is Pipinsried win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.5%. Both teams to score: 60.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.