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Oberliga - Bayern Süd Germany Bayern Süd - 19 2026

Ismaning vs Hankofen-Hailing

Ismaning Home · Elo 1,480
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hankofen-Hailing Away · Elo 1,450
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hankofen-Hailing win
Ismaning win
36.3%
Draw
23.1%
Hankofen-Hailing winPick
40.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.6%
No39.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.8%
Under 2.538.2%

How much we know

Ismaning history50 matches
Hankofen-Hailing history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.6%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Hankofen-Hailing are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ismaning are rated 29 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,480 against 1,450. On rating alone Ismaning would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Ismaning score more

    1.60 goals a game over 50 matches for Ismaning, against 1.13 over 61 for Hankofen-Hailing.

  • Ismaning concede fewer

    Ismaning concede 1.82 a game, Hankofen-Hailing 2.10.

  • Ismaning games more often go over 2.5 goals

    66% of Ismaning matches, against 57% for Hankofen-Hailing. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ismaning
Hankofen-Hailing@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1479.5
ELO
1450.2
50
ELO · Matches
61
1479.5
Current Team ELO
1450.2
1450.2
Current Opponent ELO
1479.5
29.37
Current ELO Difference
-29.37
0.54
Expected score
0.46
50
History Matches
61
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.04
48.62
Overperformance
46.74
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.27
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.20
2.80
Goals for per game
2.40
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.60
2.20
Goals for per game
1.80
1.50
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.50
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.79
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.33
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
61
1.20
PPG
0.85
32.0%
Win rate
19.7%
24.0%
Draw rate
26.2%
44.0%
Loss rate
54.1%
84.0%
Over 1.5 rate
85.2%
66.0%
Over 2.5 rate
57.4%
48.0%
Over 3.5 rate
39.3%
2.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
33
1.68
PPG
0.70
48.0%
Win rate
9.1%
24.0%
Draw rate
42.4%
28.0%
Loss rate
48.5%
84.0%
Over 1.5 rate
87.9%
72.0%
Over 2.5 rate
54.5%
56.0%
Over 3.5 rate
39.4%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
25
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.60
Goals for per game
1.13
78.0%
Scoring rate
70.5%
66.0%
BTTS rate
52.5%
2.08
Goals for per game
0.97
84.0%
Scoring rate
60.6%
68.0%
BTTS rate
51.5%
2.00
Goals for per game
2.00
57.1%
Scoring rate
85.7%
28.6%
BTTS rate
42.9%
50
History Matches
61
1.60
Goals Mean
1.13
1.30
Goals Std
0.98
78.0%
Scored 1+ rate
70.5%
46.0%
Scored 2+ rate
31.1%
24.0%
Scored 3+ rate
9.8%
2.08
Venue Goals Mean
0.97
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.82
Goals against per game
2.10
82.0%
Conceding rate
80.3%
1.48
Goals against per game
2.03
80.0%
Conceding rate
87.9%
1.14
Goals against per game
1.00
57.1%
Conceding rate
57.1%
50
History Matches
61
1.82
Conceded Mean
2.10
1.52
Conceded Std
1.64
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
59.0%
28.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
39.3%
1.48
Venue Conceded Mean
2.03
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.7%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.5%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.1%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
39.4%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
42.9%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
18.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.7%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.5%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.1%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
39.4%
18.0%
Clean-sheet rate
19.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
61
0.97
Result entropy
0.91
2.07
Goal Difference Std
1.99
2.75
Stability score
8.68
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
61
16
Lead Matches
13
68.8%
Lead Win Rate
61.5%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.69
19
Trailing Matches
32
26.3%
Non-loss rate
28.1%
5.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.74
First Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.05
0.86
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
1.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.05
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.92
Rest days
84.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
32
Normal Rest History Matches
45
1.34
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.73
14
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.07
Competition & season17 signals
170
7
Matches
7
1.43
PPG
2.00
42.9%
Win rate
57.1%
14.3%
Draw rate
28.6%
42.9%
Loss rate
14.3%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
57.1%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
2.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
7
Current Competition Matches
7
1.43
Current Competition PPG
2.00
0.86
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
3
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.31
Portability PPG Std
0.64
0.70
Portability PPG Range
1.40
61.96
Portability Score
43.76
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO29.37
PPG0.35
GF0.47
GA-0.28
PPG-0.57
PPG0.98
PPG-0.40
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate7.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches-11
Goals Mean0.47
Goals Std0.31
Scored 1+ rate7.5%
Scored 2+ rate14.9%
Scored 3+ rate14.2%
Venue Goals Mean1.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.70
History Matches-11
Conceded Mean-0.28
Conceded Std-0.12
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-0.55
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches-11
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std0.08
Stability score-5.93
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.47
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate7.2%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-13
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate5.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals For Mean0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.57
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.14
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.34
Portability PPG Range-0.70
Portability Score18.21
Rest days-0.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-13
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.61
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Current Team ELO29.37
Current Opponent ELO-29.37
Current ELO Difference58.74
Expected score0.08
History Matches-11
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.88
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ismaning

D
Pfaffenhofen3–3Ismaning7 Nov · away
Pick: Ismaning 45% · missed
W
Schalding-Heining0–1Ismaning31 Oct · away
Pick: Ismaning 57% · hit
L
Ismaning1–2Schwabmünchen24 Oct · home
Pick: Ismaning 64% · missed
W
TuS Geretsried1–2Ismaning17 Oct · away
Pick: Ismaning 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Hankofen-Hailing

D
Hankofen-Hailing1–1Erlbach7 Nov · home
Pick: Hankofen-Hailing 45% · missed
D
Hankofen-Hailing1–1Kirchanschöring31 Oct · home
Pick: Hankofen-Hailing 54% · missed
W
Gundelfingen0–1Hankofen-Hailing24 Oct · away
Pick: Hankofen-Hailing 46% · hit
L
Hankofen-Hailing0–21880 Wasserburg17 Oct · home
Pick: Hankofen-Hailing 62% · missed
W
Hankofen-Hailing2–1Landshut4 Oct · home
Pick: Hankofen-Hailing 51% · hit

About this match

Ismaning and Hankofen-Hailing meet in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Ismaning win 36.3%, draw 23.1%, Hankofen-Hailing win 40.6%. The pick is Hankofen-Hailing win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.8%. Both teams to score: 60.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.