24 Erzincanspor vs 12 Bingölspor
Match result probability Model pick: 24 Erzincanspor win
24 Erzincanspor winPick
40.5%
Draw
26.8%
12 Bingölspor win
32.7%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes54.0%
No46.0%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.561.2%
Under 2.538.8%
How much we know
24 Erzincanspor history53 matches
12 Bingölspor history33 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours 24 Erzincanspor
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 09:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 10:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.5%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why 24 Erzincanspor are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
12 Bingölspor are rated 90 Elo points higher
Elo 1,576 against 1,486. On rating alone 12 Bingölspor would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.
-
12 Bingölspor score far more
1.26 goals a game over 53 matches for 24 Erzincanspor, against 2.03 over 33 for 12 Bingölspor.
-
12 Bingölspor concede fewer
24 Erzincanspor concede 1.62 a game, 12 Bingölspor 1.03.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
53% of 24 Erzincanspor matches, against 48% for 12 Bingölspor. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 26 Apr 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
12 Bingölspor@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1486.1
ELO
1576.4
53
ELO · Matches
33
1486.1
Current Team ELO
1576.4
1576.4
Current Opponent ELO
1486.1
-90.30
Current ELO Difference
90.30
0.37
Expected score
0.63
53
History Matches
33
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.11
48.86
Overperformance
56.85
0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
2.00
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.10
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.54
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.46
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.49
Overall performance9 signals 90
53
Matches
33
1.11
PPG
1.94
30.2%
Win rate
54.5%
20.8%
Draw rate
30.3%
49.1%
Loss rate
15.2%
81.1%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
52.8%
Over 2.5 rate
48.5%
39.6%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
Venue performance10 signals 100
25
Matches
17
1.36
PPG
1.71
36.0%
Win rate
47.1%
28.0%
Draw rate
29.4%
36.0%
Loss rate
23.5%
84.0%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
56.0%
Over 2.5 rate
52.9%
36.0%
Over 3.5 rate
35.3%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.09
25
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.26
Goals for per game
2.03
60.4%
Scoring rate
87.9%
43.4%
BTTS rate
54.5%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.82
68.0%
Scoring rate
88.2%
48.0%
BTTS rate
64.7%
53
History Matches
33
1.26
Goals Mean
2.03
1.33
Goals Std
1.71
60.4%
Scored 1+ rate
87.9%
37.7%
Scored 2+ rate
54.5%
18.9%
Scored 3+ rate
21.2%
1.40
Venue Goals Mean
1.82
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.62
Goals against per game
1.03
77.4%
Conceding rate
60.6%
1.44
Goals against per game
1.35
72.0%
Conceding rate
70.6%
53
History Matches
33
1.62
Conceded Mean
1.03
1.29
Conceded Std
1.14
49.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
24.2%
22.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.1%
1.44
Venue Conceded Mean
1.35
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
22.6%
Clean-sheet rate
39.4%
39.6%
Failed-to-score rate
12.1%
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
11.8%
22.6%
Clean-sheet rate
39.4%
39.6%
Failed-to-score rate
12.1%
28.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
11.8%
22.6%
Clean-sheet rate
39.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
53
History Matches
33
0.94
Result entropy
0.89
2.12
Goal Difference Std
2.04
5.58
Stability score
10.95
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
53
Eligible Matches
33
10
Lead Matches
16
90.0%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.92
21
Trailing Matches
5
19.0%
Non-loss rate
60.0%
4.8%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
33
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
1.12
0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
0.79
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
202.9
Rest days
210.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
40
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.15
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.96
12
Long Rest History Matches
7
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.71
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.45
Portability PPG Std
0.33
0.89
Portability PPG Range
0.67
52.79
Portability Score
60.00
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
53
Clean History Matches
33
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-90.30
PPG-0.83
GF-0.77
GA0.59
PPG-0.35
PPG-1.00
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches20
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate27.5%
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate20.2%
History Matches20
Goals Mean-0.77
Goals Std-0.38
Scored 1+ rate-0.28
Scored 2+ rate-0.17
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean-0.42
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.52
History Matches20
Conceded Mean0.59
Conceded Std0.15
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate24.8%
Conceded 3+ rate10.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.42
History Matches20
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std0.07
Stability score-5.37
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.97
Eligible Matches20
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate2.5%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches16
Non-loss rate-0.41
Trailing Win Rate4.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches20
First Half Goals For Mean-0.65
First Half Goals Against Mean0.37
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.11
Portability PPG Range0.23
Portability Score-7.21
Rest days-7.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches15
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.81
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.71
Current Team ELO-90.30
Current Opponent ELO90.30
Current ELO Difference-180.6
Expected score-0.25
History Matches20
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-7.99
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.23
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
24 Erzincanspor
L
24 Erzincanspor0–1Yeni Orduspor1 Nov · home
Pick: Yeni Orduspor 47% · hit W
Kastamonuspor1–424 Erzincanspor28 Oct · away
Pick: Kastamonuspor 43% · missed W
Sakaryaspor1–324 Erzincanspor24 Oct · away
Pick: Sakaryaspor 49% · missed W
İskenderunspor2–324 Erzincanspor4 Oct · away
Pick: İskenderunspor 49% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
12 Bingölspor
W
İskenderunspor0–112 Bingölspor1 Nov · away
Pick: İskenderunspor 41% · missed L
Alanyaspor4–112 Bingölspor27 Oct · away
Pick: Alanyaspor 55% · hit D
12 Bingölspor0–0Kırklarelispor25 Oct · home
Pick: 12 Bingölspor 45% · missed D
Kütahyaspor2–212 Bingölspor18 Oct · away
Pick: Kütahyaspor 61% · missed L
Adana 01 FK1–012 Bingölspor4 Oct · away
Pick: Adana 01 FK 52% · hit About this match
24 Erzincanspor and 12 Bingölspor meet in 2. Lig on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: 24 Erzincanspor win 40.5%, draw 26.8%, 12 Bingölspor win 32.7%. The pick is 24 Erzincanspor win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.2%. Both teams to score: 54.0%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.