68 Aksaray Belediyespor vs Hatayspor
Match result probability Model pick: 68 Aksaray Belediyespor win
68 Aksaray Belediyespor winPick
49.2%
Draw
17.5%
Hatayspor win
33.4%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes58.2%
No41.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.565.4%
Under 2.534.6%
How much we know
68 Aksaray Belediyespor history53 matches
Hatayspor history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours 68 Aksaray Belediyespor
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 09:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 10:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.2%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why 68 Aksaray Belediyespor are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
68 Aksaray Belediyespor are rated 200 Elo points higher
Elo 1,523 against 1,323. On rating alone 68 Aksaray Belediyespor would be expected to take 76% of the points on offer.
-
68 Aksaray Belediyespor score more
1.58 goals a game over 53 matches for 68 Aksaray Belediyespor, against 1.16 over 56 for Hatayspor.
-
68 Aksaray Belediyespor concede fewer
68 Aksaray Belediyespor concede 1.17 a game, Hatayspor 2.63.
-
Hatayspor games more often go over 2.5 goals
49% of 68 Aksaray Belediyespor matches, against 75% for Hatayspor. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 2 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hatayspor@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1522.8
ELO
1322.6
53
ELO · Matches
56
1522.8
Current Team ELO
1322.6
1322.6
Current Opponent ELO
1522.8
200.2
Current ELO Difference
-200.2
0.76
Expected score
0.24
53
History Matches
56
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.16
51.85
Overperformance
38.35
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.40
0.60
Goals for per game
2.00
1.20
Goals against per game
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
0.70
0.90
Goals for per game
1.30
1.60
Goals against per game
2.50
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.27
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.50
1.56
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.40
Overall performance9 signals 90
53
Matches
56
1.47
PPG
0.54
35.8%
Win rate
12.5%
39.6%
Draw rate
16.1%
24.5%
Loss rate
71.4%
73.6%
Over 1.5 rate
91.1%
49.1%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
35.8%
Over 3.5 rate
55.4%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
Venue performance10 signals 100
28
Matches
29
1.61
PPG
0.34
42.9%
Win rate
6.9%
32.1%
Draw rate
13.8%
25.0%
Loss rate
79.3%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
93.1%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
79.3%
35.7%
Over 3.5 rate
58.6%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.10
28
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.58
Goals for per game
1.16
77.4%
Scoring rate
64.3%
54.7%
BTTS rate
58.9%
1.68
Goals for per game
1.07
78.6%
Scoring rate
62.1%
50.0%
BTTS rate
58.6%
53
History Matches
56
1.58
Goals Mean
1.16
1.56
Goals Std
1.22
77.4%
Scored 1+ rate
64.3%
39.6%
Scored 2+ rate
30.4%
18.9%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
1.68
Venue Goals Mean
1.07
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.17
Goals against per game
2.63
67.9%
Conceding rate
94.6%
1.14
Goals against per game
3.00
64.3%
Conceding rate
96.6%
53
History Matches
56
1.17
Conceded Mean
2.63
1.24
Conceded Std
1.43
28.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
73.2%
11.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
53.6%
1.14
Venue Conceded Mean
3.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
5.4%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
3.4%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
5.4%
22.6%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
3.4%
21.4%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
5.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
53
History Matches
56
0.98
Result entropy
0.72
2.12
Goal Difference Std
2.06
1.76
Stability score
27.72
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
52
Eligible Matches
56
18
Lead Matches
9
61.1%
Lead Win Rate
22.2%
0.72
Lead Points Retention
0.33
13
Trailing Matches
28
53.8%
Non-loss rate
3.6%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.67
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.04
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.59
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
208.9
Rest days
196.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
40
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.60
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.45
12
Long Rest History Matches
21
0.92
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.67
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.23
Portability PPG Std
0.29
0.46
Portability PPG Range
0.57
68.67
Portability Score
63.58
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
53
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO200.2
PPG0.94
GF0.42
GA-1.46
PPG1.26
PPG-0.80
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate26.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate32.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-3
Goals Mean0.42
Goals Std0.34
Scored 1+ rate13.1%
Scored 2+ rate9.3%
Scored 3+ rate6.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.61
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.22
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-1.46
Conceded Std-0.19
Clean-sheet rate26.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.45
Conceded 3+ rate-0.42
Venue Conceded Mean-1.86
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.20
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.26
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score-25.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.35
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate38.9%
Lead Points Retention0.39
Trailing Matches-15
Non-loss rate50.3%
Trailing Win Rate7.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.54
Second Half Goals For Mean0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.90
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.06
Portability PPG Range-0.12
Portability Score5.09
Rest days11.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.15
Long Rest History Matches-9
Long Rest Points Per Match0.25
Current Team ELO200.2
Current Opponent ELO-200.2
Current ELO Difference400.4
Expected score0.52
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.18
Overperformance13.50
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
68 Aksaray Belediyespor
L
68 Aksaray Belediyespor2–3Güzide Gebzespor1 Nov · home
Pick: 68 Aksaray Belediyespor 39% · missed L
Anadolu Üniversitesi3–168 Aksaray Belediyespor28 Oct · away
Pick: 68 Aksaray Belediyespor 37% · missed L
Aliağa FAŞ2–168 Aksaray Belediyespor24 Oct · away
Pick: Aliağa FAŞ 53% · hit W
68 Aksaray Belediyespor2–0Adana Demirspor18 Oct · home
Pick: 68 Aksaray Belediyespor 74% · hit L
68 Aksaray Belediyespor0–1Ankaraspor4 Oct · home
Pick: 68 Aksaray Belediyespor 38% · missed Hatayspor
L
Menemen FK3–0Hatayspor1 Nov · away
Pick: Menemen FK 47% · hit L
Hatayspor0–3Erbaaspor24 Oct · home
Pick: Erbaaspor 48% · hit L
Şanlıurfaspor4–2Hatayspor17 Oct · away
Pick: Şanlıurfaspor 58% · hit L
Hatayspor1–2Karaköprü Belediyespor7 Oct · home
Pick: Karaköprü Belediyespor 42% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
68 Aksaray Belediyespor and Hatayspor meet in 2. Lig on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: 68 Aksaray Belediyespor win 49.2%, draw 17.5%, Hatayspor win 33.4%. The pick is 68 Aksaray Belediyespor win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.4%. Both teams to score: 58.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.