Muş Sport Klübü vs Güzide Gebzespor
Match result probability Model pick: Muş Sport Klübü win
Muş Sport Klübü winPick
64.6%
Draw
18.8%
Güzide Gebzespor win
16.7%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes55.5%
No44.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.565.2%
Under 2.534.8%
How much we know
Muş Sport Klübü history60 matches
Güzide Gebzespor history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Muş Sport Klübü
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 09:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 10:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (64.6%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.
Why Muş Sport Klübü are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Muş Sport Klübü are rated 99 Elo points higher
Elo 1,630 against 1,531. On rating alone Muş Sport Klübü would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.
-
Muş Sport Klübü score more
2.32 goals a game over 60 matches for Muş Sport Klübü, against 1.57 over 51 for Güzide Gebzespor.
-
Muş Sport Klübü concede fewer
Muş Sport Klübü concede 0.95 a game, Güzide Gebzespor 1.27.
-
Muş Sport Klübü games more often go over 2.5 goals
60% of Muş Sport Klübü matches, against 49% for Güzide Gebzespor. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Güzide Gebzespor@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1630.4
ELO
1531.0
60
ELO · Matches
51
1630.4
Current Team ELO
1531.0
1531.0
Current Opponent ELO
1630.4
99.35
Current ELO Difference
-99.35
0.64
Expected score
0.36
60
History Matches
51
0.11
Residual Mean
0.02
58.59
Overperformance
51.74
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.80
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
0.80
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.40
2.00
Goals for per game
1.20
0.90
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
1.95
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.60
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.17
Overall performance9 signals 90
60
Matches
51
2.03
PPG
1.47
60.0%
Win rate
41.2%
23.3%
Draw rate
23.5%
16.7%
Loss rate
35.3%
81.7%
Over 1.5 rate
68.6%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
49.0%
45.0%
Over 3.5 rate
31.4%
2.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
Venue performance10 signals 100
33
Matches
27
2.27
PPG
1.11
66.7%
Win rate
29.6%
27.3%
Draw rate
22.2%
6.1%
Loss rate
48.1%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
57.6%
Over 2.5 rate
48.1%
51.5%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.24
33
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.32
Goals for per game
1.57
85.0%
Scoring rate
74.5%
53.3%
BTTS rate
49.0%
2.61
Goals for per game
1.30
87.9%
Scoring rate
59.3%
48.5%
BTTS rate
44.4%
60
History Matches
51
2.32
Goals Mean
1.57
1.85
Goals Std
1.64
85.0%
Scored 1+ rate
74.5%
58.3%
Scored 2+ rate
39.2%
43.3%
Scored 3+ rate
15.7%
2.61
Venue Goals Mean
1.30
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.95
Goals against per game
1.27
63.3%
Conceding rate
70.6%
0.73
Goals against per game
1.48
51.5%
Conceding rate
77.8%
60
History Matches
51
0.95
Conceded Mean
1.27
1.01
Conceded Std
1.25
20.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.3%
6.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.8%
0.73
Venue Conceded Mean
1.48
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.5%
48.5%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
12.1%
Failed-to-score rate
40.7%
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
15.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.5%
48.5%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
12.1%
Failed-to-score rate
40.7%
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
60
History Matches
51
0.86
Result entropy
0.98
2.26
Goal Difference Std
2.17
14.01
Stability score
2.30
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
59
Eligible Matches
50
30
Lead Matches
21
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
76.2%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.79
10
Trailing Matches
15
30.0%
Non-loss rate
26.7%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
1.02
First Half Goals For Mean
0.82
0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
1.29
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.66
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
188.8
Rest days
203.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
47
Normal Rest History Matches
36
2.02
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.53
11
Long Rest History Matches
13
2.36
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.46
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
3
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.35
Portability PPG Std
0.30
0.92
Portability PPG Range
0.60
59.13
Portability Score
62.34
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
60
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO99.35
PPG0.56
GF0.75
GA-0.32
PPG1.16
PPG0.40
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate7.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate26.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches9
Goals Mean0.75
Goals Std0.21
Scored 1+ rate10.5%
Scored 2+ rate19.1%
Scored 3+ rate27.6%
Venue Goals Mean1.31
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std1.35
History Matches9
Conceded Mean-0.32
Conceded Std-0.25
Clean-sheet rate7.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.48
History Matches9
Result entropy-0.12
Goal Difference Std0.09
Stability score11.71
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.00
Eligible Matches9
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate7.1%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate3.3%
Trailing Win Rate20.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches9
First Half Goals For Mean0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.25
Second Half Goals For Mean0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.04
Portability PPG Range0.31
Portability Score-3.20
Rest days-14.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.49
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.90
Current Team ELO99.35
Current Opponent ELO-99.35
Current ELO Difference198.7
Expected score0.28
History Matches9
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.85
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.03
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Muş Sport Klübü
D
Aliağa FAŞ0–0Muş Sport Klübü7 Nov · away
Pick: Muş Sport Klübü 42% · missed W
Muş Sport Klübü7–1Adana Demirspor31 Oct · home
Pick: Muş Sport Klübü 80% · hit W
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu1–2Muş Sport Klübü27 Oct · away
Pick: Muş Sport Klübü 73% · hit L
Sebat Gençlikspor3–2Muş Sport Klübü24 Oct · away
Pick: Muş Sport Klübü 40% · missed W
Muş Sport Klübü4–2Ankaraspor18 Oct · home
Pick: Muş Sport Klübü 64% · hit Güzide Gebzespor
W
68 Aksaray Belediyespor2–3Güzide Gebzespor1 Nov · away
Pick: 68 Aksaray Belediyespor 39% · missed L
Güzide Gebzespor0–4Yeşilyurt Belediyespor28 Oct · home
Pick: Güzide Gebzespor 49% · missed W
Güzide Gebzespor4–1Somaspor24 Oct · home
Pick: Güzide Gebzespor 46% · hit W
Menemen FK0–1Güzide Gebzespor17 Oct · away
Pick: Güzide Gebzespor 42% · hit D
Şanlıurfaspor1–1Güzide Gebzespor5 Oct · away
Pick: Şanlıurfaspor 45% · missed About this match
Muş Sport Klübü and Güzide Gebzespor meet in 2. Lig on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Muş Sport Klübü win 64.6%, draw 18.8%, Güzide Gebzespor win 16.7%. The pick is Muş Sport Klübü win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.2%. Both teams to score: 55.5%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.