Kastamonuspor vs Şanlıurfaspor
Match result probability Model pick: Şanlıurfaspor win
Kastamonuspor win
33.0%
Draw
22.6%
Şanlıurfaspor winPick
44.3%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes54.5%
No45.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.554.7%
Under 2.545.3%
How much we know
Kastamonuspor history55 matches
Şanlıurfaspor history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Şanlıurfaspor
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 09:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 10:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (44.3%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Şanlıurfaspor are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Şanlıurfaspor are rated 58 Elo points higher
Elo 1,532 against 1,474. On rating alone Şanlıurfaspor would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.
-
Şanlıurfaspor score more
1.33 goals a game over 55 matches for Kastamonuspor, against 1.50 over 56 for Şanlıurfaspor.
-
Defences are close
Kastamonuspor concede 1.33 a game, Şanlıurfaspor 1.29.
-
Şanlıurfaspor games more often go over 2.5 goals
45% of Kastamonuspor matches, against 54% for Şanlıurfaspor. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 5 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Şanlıurfaspor@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1473.8
ELO
1531.7
55
ELO · Matches
56
1473.8
Current Team ELO
1531.7
1531.7
Current Opponent ELO
1473.8
-57.90
Current ELO Difference
57.90
0.42
Expected score
0.58
55
History Matches
56
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.03
48.00
Overperformance
51.90
-0.33
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
3.20
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.30
PPG
1.30
0.60
Goals for per game
1.50
2.10
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
30.0%
0.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.50
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.45
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.27
Overall performance9 signals 90
55
Matches
56
1.36
PPG
1.45
34.5%
Win rate
41.1%
32.7%
Draw rate
21.4%
32.7%
Loss rate
37.5%
78.2%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
53.6%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
35.7%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
Venue performance10 signals 100
27
Matches
29
1.44
PPG
1.52
37.0%
Win rate
44.8%
33.3%
Draw rate
17.2%
29.6%
Loss rate
37.9%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
82.8%
40.7%
Over 2.5 rate
62.1%
25.9%
Over 3.5 rate
41.4%
2.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
27
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.33
Goals for per game
1.50
70.9%
Scoring rate
71.4%
54.5%
BTTS rate
55.4%
1.44
Goals for per game
1.69
74.1%
Scoring rate
82.8%
48.1%
BTTS rate
65.5%
55
History Matches
56
1.33
Goals Mean
1.50
1.32
Goals Std
1.32
70.9%
Scored 1+ rate
71.4%
38.2%
Scored 2+ rate
46.4%
10.9%
Scored 3+ rate
19.6%
1.44
Venue Goals Mean
1.69
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.33
Goals against per game
1.29
78.2%
Conceding rate
73.2%
1.15
Goals against per game
1.38
66.7%
Conceding rate
75.9%
55
History Matches
56
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.29
1.10
Conceded Std
1.03
36.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.9%
10.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
8.9%
1.15
Venue Conceded Mean
1.38
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
21.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.8%
29.1%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
17.2%
21.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.8%
29.1%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
17.2%
21.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
55
History Matches
56
1.00
Result entropy
0.97
1.82
Goal Difference Std
1.62
0.03
Stability score
3.21
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
55
Eligible Matches
56
11
Lead Matches
19
72.7%
Lead Win Rate
68.4%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.75
22
Trailing Matches
11
31.8%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
4.5%
Trailing Win Rate
18.2%
Goal timing5 signals 50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.41
0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
202.9
Rest days
193.9
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
39
Normal Rest History Matches
38
1.62
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.37
15
Long Rest History Matches
16
0.73
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.56
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.31
Portability PPG Std
0.49
0.61
Portability PPG Range
0.99
62.07
Portability Score
50.33
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
55
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-57.90
PPG-0.08
GF-0.17
GA0.04
PPG-0.07
PPG-1.40
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate0.5%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate9.2%
Failed-to-score rate8.7%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.17
Goals Std0.00
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.70
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.04
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate2.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.23
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.70
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.20
Stability score-3.18
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.44
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.09
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate4.3%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches11
Non-loss rate4.5%
Trailing Win Rate-0.14
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.19
Portability PPG Range-0.38
Portability Score11.74
Rest days9.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.25
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.83
Current Team ELO-57.90
Current Opponent ELO57.90
Current ELO Difference-115.8
Expected score-0.17
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.91
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.35
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Kastamonuspor
L
Kastamonuspor0–5Elazığspor1 Nov · home
Pick: Elazığspor 50% · hit L
Kastamonuspor1–424 Erzincanspor28 Oct · home
Pick: Kastamonuspor 43% · missed L
Ankaraspor5–1Kastamonuspor24 Oct · away
Pick: Ankaraspor 42% · hit D
Kastamonuspor2–2Isparta 32 Spor18 Oct · home
Pick: Kastamonuspor 45% · missed W
Kastamonuspor2–1Arnavutköy Belediyespor4 Oct · home
Pick: Kastamonuspor 44% · hit Şanlıurfaspor
W
Şanlıurfaspor4–0Isparta 32 Spor1 Nov · home
Pick: Şanlıurfaspor 53% · hit W
Şanlıurfaspor3–1Gölcükspor28 Oct · home
Pick: Şanlıurfaspor 70% · hit W
Arnavutköy Belediyespor0–2Şanlıurfaspor24 Oct · away
Pick: Şanlıurfaspor 44% · hit W
Şanlıurfaspor4–2Hatayspor17 Oct · home
Pick: Şanlıurfaspor 58% · hit D
Şanlıurfaspor1–1Güzide Gebzespor5 Oct · home
Pick: Şanlıurfaspor 45% · missed About this match
Kastamonuspor and Şanlıurfaspor meet in 2. Lig on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Kastamonuspor win 33.0%, draw 22.6%, Şanlıurfaspor win 44.3%. The pick is Şanlıurfaspor win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.7%. Both teams to score: 54.5%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.